W-H-A-T A D-A-Y! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
Six-for-Ten And Over $100 Profit!!!!
What a day today turned out to be! Ironically as I sat down this morning the thought ran through my head that I just needed to be patient because since the big Saturday at Gulfstream my winners and especially my profits have been less than what I would hope for. And I considered the fact that I know eventually I'll have one of "those days" where I have a big day - not only win percentage but a big profit. And almost immediately after that thought ran through my mind another one popped in....hey, you never know; I've had big days with a small number of bets like today! So, like both Friday and Saturday I only handicapped for Monmouth and Saratoga. But today was a wee bit different in that Monmouth had a Grade 3 event and more importantly the feature at Saratoga was the long awaited appearance of unbeaten filly champion on the east coast. And THAT had caused a lot of thinking on my part of how to bet the race. So here's how it all played out........
In the Monmouth opener Pound Sterling looks tons the best at a short price despite he was a nine time maiden. Today he dropped in class and shipped from NY to Monmouth with top rider Paco Lopez up. Sure enough, he was pressed on the front but he edged clear at the top of the lane but there here came the one stalker with momentum. Second at even money and the winner - came from a barn that was 1-for-37 at the summer meet. WOW! Is this the kind of day I'm going to have? In the 2nd at Saratoga (passed the opener) I went with a Bill Mott first time starter......if you follow racing at all you should be shaking your head because Mott next to NEVER wins with debut runners. But this one had "that look" and top national rider Florent Geroux was up. Went off at a big 9/1 and was near the back the entire time, sixth. Ironically the winner in the first paid $28.60 and the winner here paid $26.60 - the early double $409.50 for a $2 bet! This does NOT bode well with Songbird a probable short-priced favorite at the "Graveyard of Favorites!" The third at Monmouth featured another odds-on runner - this one, Moneyman was sent out by top trainer Jorge Navarro but the jockey was a mere 2-for-87 at the meet. Hmmmmm. Still, the other trainers were 1-for-36 this summer and Navarro is currently 32-for-79 (41%). Just the minimum - Moneyman walked with it easily. After I ran fourth at 7/2 at Saratoga in their third I came right back with my second winner at Monmouth. I went back and forth about what to do with this turf claiming event because the majority of these have all run against each other multiple times. And typically the only way I'll play a race with that kind of field is to find the "new shooter. But Gucchi Gold had nearly always finished in front of "her friends" and more importantly she was sent out by trainer Kathleen DeMasi who is a Monmouth Park 40% Club member when Jose Ferrer is on board, like today. I'd already cashed on her earlier in the meet. As they turned for home she was rallying, oh this is going to be close.......JUST GOT THERE!
The price was a nice 3/1 and so the minimum play got me back $20! The next bet on the sheet was the sixth from Monmouth - a Maiden Special on the turf going 8 1/2 furlongs. Three things jumped off the page as I scanned the past performances. First, he was a MSW shipper from New York; second he was trained by Christophe Clement with long-time riding partner Jersey Joe Bravo in the irons; and third the most likely alternative in here was exiting a race where four of the eight returned today and they'd been separated by less than a length - often an indication of a weak race. Bravo kept War Bond on the rail to the stretch, split horses and as announcer Frank Miramahdi said, "...was simply too good for these....." I had doubled the bet and cashed for nearly $20 with my third winner from four selections on the Jersey Shore.
The Saratoga sixth was next - this was another "think outside the box" selection because often those are the types that win here (see the results of the early double!). So Chad Brown sent out Llanita who had already failed to produce on multiple occasions while running second several times. BUT, after running second in two Euro tries she was the favorite in BOTH the Grade 3 Miss Grillo and the Chelsey Flower Stakes AS A MAIDEN! She was steadied when missing at 1/5 after those and then last time out hung when closing wide going shorter like a filly that "needed a race." Second off the shelf and stretching out I was willing to go in at a fair price. She was 7/2 and was boxed in into mid stretch before accelerating to the wire - too late, third. Within ten minutes we were headed postward in Momouth's 7th race. And I was doubting my initial decision. Killin Them Softly looked to be one of the rare Paco Lopez horses who would pay a price. She was a front runner in a race full of early speed and she'd drawn the wide post ten. AND we were only going 5 1/2 furlongs. But conversely she was 9-for-18 at the distance - obviously this is her game! At the price, with the top rider I had planned to triple the bet. And in the early betting she was a big 4/1. Given how I have been winning at a slower pace and I've already won three here today maybe this is the time to back off. All through the Saratoga race I considered this. Then finally I thought - no, stick with what you'd planned to do when you were not in the "heat of battle" during the race day. I tripled the bet and within minutes Killin Them Softly was down to 7/5. OK, they see what I see. But the late money came pouring in on the other two likely winners and her odds began to drift upward. I really thought Lopez would let her settle just off the pace from the wide draw but when the gates burst open he shot to the front, was quickly clear of the field and coasted wire-to-wire! WHOOOOOO HOOOOOO!
And her price had indeed floated up to better than 5/2 - indeed a Lopez price winner and I had tripled the investment! I was cashing for over $50 on my fourth win from five picks on the shore. The featured Grade 3 Boiling Springs at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf was next. I liked Graham Motion's Tin Type Gal - so much so that I made her my "Monmouth BEST BET" and was going "prime time" on the bet. Again I considered.....maybe I should scale back. I've already won with four of five, I would hate to negate my profit with a single bet. The opening odds came up and she was the 7/5 favorite. Hmmmm. She was a Grade 3 winner as a 2yo and when she made her sophomore debut last time out, off an eight month layoff she was six-wide turning for home. when beaten only two lengths. AND the winner had come right back, two days ago, at the Spa to win the Opening Day featured Grade 2 Lake George. I'm sticking with my bet! Jockey Trevor McCarthy had her settled near the back, but less than five from the front into the turn. But she had no where to go. Instead of losing ground and going wide he patiently waded on the rail and when the field turned for home the rail opened and he burst through. It was a stretch duel with what turned out to be the post-time favorite but on the wire I was first.....AGAIN! My FIFTH win from six selections on the Shore. I am having a VERY good day.
The generous 9/5 price meant I'd be cashing for almost $60.00! WOW! Ironically as the 9th at Saratoga completed and it was time for the featured tenth, the Grade 1 Coaching Club of America Oaks, it was also time for us to leave for dinner. The one race of the entire weekend I really wanted to watch! Sigh.....but I try really hard to not let racing interfere with my "normal life." So off we went. It looked like I'd be able to watch it on my phone as we were waiting to be seated. As the betting opened champion Songbird was a prohibitive 1/9 and second choice, Carina Mia (who was 6/5 in the program) was 12/1. I thought I'd get at least 1/5 by post time. We got to the Sawgrass Mills Mall and after finally finding a parking spot they were loading in the gate as we walked to the restaurant. With the rail draw Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith shot the champ right to the lead. But jockey Julian Leparoux was not about to let her get away and he got multiple graded stakes winner Carina Mia right on her hip. She can't run with Songbird I thought. And as they hit the turn Smith was ready to say "GO" when Leparoux sent Carina Mia after the champ. OH MY, on the turn they were even and turned for home dueling......this is the first time EVER that Songbird has been challenged and asked to run! You never know how a thoroughbred will respond when challenged for the first time. For about a sixteenth of a mile they went head up and head down and if the truth were told I truly think Carina Mia was briefly in front......
But as they hit the furlong pole Songbird displayed why she's the best 3yo filly, maybe the best 3yo period, in the country. She didn't edge away, she found another gear and drew off leaving Carina Mia in her dust. Two thoughts immediately came to mind as my heart was pounding......next time out, Carina Mia is a BIG TIME bet as she's clearly a very talented filly to test Songbird like this; and secondly - oh my, how good IS THIS FILLY! The win made me six-for-ten on the day; and with the "BET OF THE WEEKEND" $100 play I would cash for $130! Whooooo hoooooo! I was profiting over $100 on a fabulous Sunday at the races!
Weekend Stakes Racing Highlights
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