July 23

Finish With A RUSH For WINNING DAY

EPIC Stakes Races Provide Winning Punch

What a day - I've said this before, and I'll say it again today.  You just never know how the day is going to turn out until it's all over.  Here's the story on this fourth Saturday in July.  I had handicapped for Monmouth and for Saratoga.  But, with my Mom, sister and niece flying in around 3 pm I knew it would not be a "full day" of racing, and certainly not a "day at the track" which would normally include handicapping half a dozen tracks or more.  I tried to be a little more conservative as it has seemed like after the huge Saturday at Gulfstream two weeks ago I've "returned to normal" results and my winning percentage is trending back to a more routine 35% or so.  So, at Monmouth I found five races where I had an investment from their ten race program and on the first Saturday program at Saratoga I had seven races with investments.  In the opener on the Jersey Shore it was a six furlong maiden special and My Country looked tons the best on paper.  In her May debut she was a best-of-the-rest second and had fired a HUGE best-of-110 bullet work.  She was sent off at 6/5 and was immediately left standing in the gate when the bell sounded.  That she closed ground and got up for second was a major accomplishment.  Circle her for next time out - especially with a drop in class.  The second at Saratoga was a 2yo maiden special on the turf going a mile and a sixteenth.  I went with Our Stormin Norman who looked like the better of the uncoupled Mark Casse entry.  It truly looked to me like the rider was holding him back like he was waiting for the other half of the entry to get into position to win before he let him run - fifth at 7/2 while the other half of the entry did indeed win.  I'm not saying that's what actually happened, but I saw a sequence very similar with a Woodbine entry for Casse earlier this summer.  The third at Monmouth was nw3-lifetime turf event and trainer Jamie Ness was sending out Tapkee.  Layoff runners for Ness have won at a 43% clip when coming back off a 30+ day layoff making this one a Monmouth 40% Club play.  Others looked to have legitimate chances so I only went in for the minimum.  Tapkee came rallying from mid-pack to edge clear late a nice price - the first winner of the day! 

The $10.20 payoff meant I'd get back over $25 for the small play - wish I'd gone double the investment as is the usual on a "Club play."  The third at Saratoga was the Grade 3 Sanford for 2yo colts.  I liked two juveniles - Random Walk who ran away "in hand" and had come back to work quickly and Bitmumen who had dueled and drew off for Todd Pletcher.  The pace numbers gave a clear edge to the former.  He went off at 8/5 and dueled on the lead.  He got clear into the lane but then Bitumen came flying by as the 4/5 favorite.  That was at 2 pm and I didn't have another selection until after 4 pm.  And that worked out perfectly since the family was due to arrive early at 2:45 pm according to the Southwest web site/flight status check.  All went well at the airport and I got home in time to watch the 7th from Monmouth.  It was a WEAK maiden claiming turf route and Eddie Plesa was dropping Saratoga Prime out of MSW company in for this $40K tag.  He was winning at a 50% clip with MSW droppers.  He was 5/2 and the favorite as they started to load but he resisted to go into the gate and it was a good five or ten minute delay.  All the while his odds kept floating up until at post time he was 9/2.  He stalked and was in prime position through the turn, then faded to fifth.  The 7th at Saratoga was my "upset special" on Oathkeeper who was dropping out of the Grade 1 Manhattan to run in this 2nd level allowance.  He was 12/1 in the program and was 17/1 at post time.  He was squeezed at the start but he was never, ever in it - eighth.  The eighth at Monmouth was the co-featured Grade 3 Jersey Shore going six furlongs.  Cashel Rock was 7/2 and was tracking the pace to the lane, then faded to sixth - just a minimum play.  The eighth at Saratoga was a nw1x allowance on the turf and I liked the Chad Brown entry - they were the prohibitive 3/5 favorite but BOTH were steadied in mid-stretch and the "closest" finisher was 7th under the wire.  The ninth at Monmouth was the Lamplighter stakes and Noble Quality was bet down to 4/5 favoritism in a five horse field.  Jersey Joe Bravo fell asleep at the wheel in my opinion as he had the perfect trip but let the leader set a leisurely pace and never pressed the issue from his stalking position AND didn't start his rally until mid-stretch.  A closing second by half a length.  You could give the winning rider credit for slowing the pace, but it was all on Bravo for not recognizing it with the best horse under him.  Booooooo.  The ninth at Saratoga was an allowance and the heavy favorite - my top choice - was My Man Sam who had been my pick in the Grade 1 Bluegrass and he was FLYING some ten wide that day to be second.  An obvious pick in an entry level allowance.  Rallied wide and late again, second best, again.  WOW. 

So at this point it was about 6 pm and so far the day had resulted in a single win from ten selections.  I'm NOT having a very good day as we sat down to dinner.  The feature at Saratoga was the Grade 1 Diana Stakes going nine furlongs on the turf.  For Father's Day Kim had got me a "Wall of Fame" photo of Tepin winning the Grade 2 Humana Distaff on Derby Day and this past Tuesday I picked it up and put her on the wall.  Well, in the field of the Diana was Dacita from the Chad Brown barn.  These two stories intersect in that the last loss suffered by the champion Tepin had happened HERE at Saratoga at the hands of.....that's right, Dacita!  She'd run well that day, her only start over the course and had worked well here since last winning the Grade 2 New Yorker.  I thought the works showed her affinity for the course and with the field being very even - in my opinion - I thought the "Tepin" angle and the HFC thoughts, she would be a good value play, especially at 5/1 on the morning line.  She immediately was at the back of the field as the rains began to fall.  And as they hit the far turn she was beginning to gain momentum, but still next to last.  I was watching this on the big screen television as it was being broadcast on NBC-SN.  Then she was fanned some seven or more wide into the lane.  Still, picking off horses!  Then she seemed to run evenly to the 16th pole and I had the thought run through my mind that I'd lost again.  But as if she downshifted into overdrive she found an acceleration that burst her to the wire JUST IN TIME!  Officially it was a photo finish, but I knew I'd won.  As they re-ran the stretch run in slowmotion all the announcers were guessing that it was Dacita on the outside and the slowmotion finish confirmed it.  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

I'd doubled the bet so the $10.20 payoff got me a $51 return - I'm at least back in the ballpark with the bottom line in spite of only two winners on the day.  I had to wait until after nine pm for the last race of the day.  I had decided not to handicap the full Del Mar card, but I liked the featured Grade 2 San Diego Handicap which was a showdown between Bob Baffert's very talented Dortmund and the 2014 Horse of the Year and this year's $10 Million Group 1 Dubai Cup winner California Chrome.  If 'Chrome ran his race he was the best - he may be the best older handicap horse in the country.  But, (a) he was coming off the layoff since that March victory AND (b) it almost always takes a little something extra out of a horse to make the international trip from Dubai.  But the main rival, Dortmund - who was 8-for-10 in his lifetime - had not been out since November.  But he had the rail and was obviously the lone speed.  Chrome would track him and then we'd see who had the finishing kick off the vacation and if Dortmund had slowed down the pace enough.  The race unfolded exactly as expected....and then as I anticipated Chrome cruised up and glided by.  I was thinking I KNEW he was the better of the two and as they turned for home he was about a half length in front and seemed on his way to a decisive win.  But Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens and Dortmund were not done.  They came right back and the length of the stretch IT WAS ON.  It was horse racing at it's best with California Chrome just edging clear in the shadow of the wire.  I thought it was very cool that just after the race Stevens extended his had out to jockey Victor Espinoza and they exchanged fist bumps on the great race they'd just ridden in.  California Chrome was my BET of the Day and was going to make or break the day......he had been 1/9 in the early betting but by post time Dortmund was bet all the way down to 7/5 and California Chrome somehow in a five horse field floated up to 4/5 odds.  With my $50 win bet I cashed for $90.  And suddenly, I finished the day 3-for-12 (with four second place finishes) but with a profit of over $15 for the day!  YOU GOTTA LOVE RACING!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!