Sunday, July 10, 2016

July 9

July 9th - Belmont Stars & Stripes Day
A B-I-G Day At The Races!

For a brief moment I considered NOT going to Gulfstream to play the races today because I knew of my more than thirty selections I only had very few live races and I would be sitting in front of a TV monitor no better (in fact the quality is worse) than sitting at home in front of my computer.  But it was the "getting out of the house" / "going to the track" and playing with real money that won me over in the end.  So I left the house about 11:30 am and by the time I pulled into the garage a little after 7 pm it had been one of "those days" that is a red-letter winning day!  I got started with a winning selection immediately in the opener at Belmont.  This was a six furlong Maiden Special for two-year-olds (you can tell we must be getting close to Saratoga when the juveniles stretch out to the common 3/4 of a mile distance!).  While several of these looked to have the potential to be good runners, it was Chad Brown's Bobby On Fleek that caught my eye.  First, Brown had been on the Saratoga 40% Club list a few years ago with all MSW starters and so I always am on the lookout for his 2yo maidens; but mostly it was the sizzling bullet work Bobby had put in when stopping the clock in a smokin' :59.3.  He was confidently handled 3-wide by jockey Irad Ortiz and when he let him go he ran away from the field in a dazzling performance.  He was the 6/5 post time favorite and I only had the minimum on him, but it was a win to kick off the day.  I missed at Monmouth when Guiness Spice was a clear 2nd over the muddy going behind a loose-on-the-lead winner in maiden claiming company.  But the opener at Gulfstream - one of only three live plays locally - provided my next winner.  Blue Harbor showed a string of Beyer figures that demonstrated his "typical" race would require a lifetime best effort from any of his rivals today.  He went right to the front and when challenged at the top of the lane he responded and held the field safe.  Another 6/5 winner with a minimum play, but I'm 2-for-3!  I handicapped Delaware today because they had several stakes races and I got my third winner less than five minutes after the Gulfstream score when Racetrack Romance wired the field.  He was a no-brainer with a Double BSF advantage, working on a 3-race win streak.  He was pounded late at the windows down to 2/5 favoritism....at least I doubled the bet!  I was 2nd at 5/2 in Belmont's third when Adulator dueled through the stretch and lost the photo by the narrowest of margins.  The winner cut off the third place finisher in mid-stretch and there was an objection and an Inquiry......maybe.....no.  I got my first big score at Monmouth in their third with Bay Numbers.  This was a maiden special for two-year-olds and you knew Bay Numbers would be a short price with top rider Paco Lopez riding for Eddie Plesa.  Maidens from this barn were scoring at a big 33% with a $3.38 ROI in their second start like this.  AND Bay Numbers was the only one in here with racing experience; AND he came with an excuse when he refused to load in that first start.  Listed at 6/5 in the program I doubled the bet.  Somehow the crowd let him go off at 5/2 while they bet a first-time starter down to favoritism for a barn that is 1-for-45 at the meet.  Go figure!  My son Jeff and I had just been talking about how Lopez scores at a price day after day here.  Bay Numbers was MUCH the best, handily holding off the 2/5 favorite and paid $7.60 - I got back nearly $40!  Second at Parx when Jorge Navarro's Brothersofthetime got cooked in a speed duel to set up the late run of the 8/5 favorite and then second at Woodbine in a suspicious finish.  Conquest Streetkid was the 1/2 favorite and was coasting on the lead - literally not even being asked as they turned for home.  And when the real running started it sure looked to me like the rider was waiting for his uncoupled stablemate to come flying up.  When that one collared him at the 16th pole THEN the jock asked and he finished with interest to be second.  Didn't look good I have to say.  But I quickly got over it when I won my second race at Delaware.  Last Resort was the prototype of an entry-level allowance winner:  lightly raced, on the improve and in good form.  He took the lead as they hit the backstretch and was never threatened.  So as I turned the first page of four pages of selections I had won FIVE races already and run second in the other four! 

Just like the start of the day, the start of the second page was an immediate success!  I was playing Arlington today (and sporting an Arlington polo!) because today was Arlington Million Preview Day and there were four graded stakes serving as final preps for the big races on Million Day next month.  The opener was a five furlong sprint for two-year-olds and in Chicago the king of the two-year-olds is trainer Larry Rivelli.  He's having a sparkling summer with an overall win rate that matches his high 2yo win percentage (27%).  The typical Rivelli first timer bursts from the gate and leads them on a merry chase, and no one is better than that than ET Baird who is winning at an amazing 37% for the barn.  Through the early betting and as the horses approached the gate Well Abled was the short priced favorite.  But in the final two minutes his price floated up to better than 2/1 causing me to grin as I knew if I was right I was going to make more money than I should!  The gates opened and Well Abled was slow from the gate and immediately near the back.  ET didn't hesitate he hit the "GO" button and before the field had gone ten jumps he had cleared the field and was daylight lengths clear.  The only concern I had was if the slow start would leave him wanting in the stretch, but not a single runner ever threatened him! 

And the $6.20 payoff meant I'd cash for more than $30 on my sixth win already.  The fourth at Gulfstream was a maiden claiming event, and this race proved yet again that when handicapping horse racing it's all about THIS race and how THESE specific horses match up.  Pomme d'Or had earned Beyers of 58-59-60 in his last three and while those won't win you any stakes races, they were far and away the best numbers in the field.  Throw in the fact that top local rider Tyler Gafflione was riding and she just looked really strong.  She was also Ron Nicoletti's "BEST" of the day.  I made her my best bet locally.  She stalked the pace into the stretch and when asked she exploded as I watched from the rail and scored EASILY! 


My prime time play earned me over $30 as I doubled my original planned bet for the score.  I posted the above photo of me on Facebook and remarked that it was just barely 2 pm and I had already won SEVEN races on the day. 

I know that this has nothing to do with my winning and losing but it seemed ironic that following my beaming pose I went on a six-race losing streak that lasted just over two hours :(  Disco Partner faltered to 4th in a nw2x turf sprint at Belmont and Lost Raven was a non-threatening 4th in Belmont's Grade 3 Victory Ride - my second choice, the Santa Anita invader Coppa won.  I KNEW he was well meant because that trainer rarely ships across the country.  The one bet I wish I had back.  At Monmouth Posse Dreamin was the 7/5 favorite as the new shooter in a group of "old friends" - I thought he'd gun to the front and wire the field, but instead he was taken off the pace and ran evenly to be fifth.  In the first of the graded events at Arlington I liked the two Europeans Faufiler and Marypop.  I thought they were nearly equal in their chances to win and felt that the former would be the favorite so I went with 3/1 Marypop.  Faufiler won, Marypop was an even fifth.  The Grade 3 Dwyer at Belmont in their 7th race was my best bet of the day as I really liked Economic Model.  On the race analysis the NY handicappers both agreed he was coming off two big efforts but had faced much lesser competition and had dream trips.  They were right, third at 6/5 while never close enough to threaten.  I finally broke through with a win thanks to Jim Mazur's "Monmouth Handicapper" and the Monmouth 40% Club.  The inclimate weather had led to all races coming off the turf and my choice, Stevie Q had three of four career starts on the grass with strong figures.  BUT more importantly he was trained by Chad Brown.  Over the last two years Brown has won at better than 40% with ALL his horses, so to be a club play they just have to be entered by Brown!  That's the angle!  So in spite of the surface change I stuck with the "Club play."  Sent off at 4/5 he pressed the leader to the stretch then took off as tons the best!  In spite of the long streak of non winners I turned to page three with a 3-for-9 record on the second sheet of selections.  In the opener at Santa Anita Miss Bliss was the even-money favorite and I thought had a big class edge over her 3-lifetime rivals.  She stalked the lead to the stretch, edged to the front but was outfinished to be second.  The eighth at Belmont was the Grade 1 Belmont Derby for three-year-old colts going a mile and a quarter on the turf.  I thought that this was a wildly competitive race and there was no clear favorite - which to me meant if I liked someone I stood a fairly good chance to make a little money.  A solid handicapping angle in graded turf events is to look at the European invaders.  The better they are and/or the better the connections, the more likely they are to handle the American competition.  Aidan O'Brien is one of the best trainers in the world and he does not ship "across the pond" unless he has a legitimate runner, so when I saw two of his colts in here my attention was piqued.  Of the two I liked Deauville the best.  Since a decisive maiden score he'd seen nothing but Group races and had WON a Group 3 with two second place finishes in Group 2 company.  The only problem I could forsee is the far outside post 13 in a big field like this.  But the program odds of 4/1 seemed a fair price considering his talent and the post.  They were off and immediately Euro rider Jamie Spencer asked Deauville to show a little speed.  By the time they hit the first turn he was sitting just off the leader and I KNEW I had a big chance.  Through the far turn none of the betting favorites were close and now the sprint for home was on!  Spencer had a daylight lead and had enough horse to hold off a fast closing finisher.  And best of all, check out the price......

OH MY!  The big payoff netted me nearly $75 and I had to capture this moment on film......

This win clearly will cover the six race losing streak I was thinking.  How ironic because I had plays in all the Belmont big stakes and in NONE of them did I think my pick would be the short-priced favorite - most unusual in graded stakes company!  The initial feeling that this is going to be a good day, which had melted away during the losing skein, was coming back.  Regardless, I had a "highlight moment" for the day and I would walk away happy.  The 8th at Woodbine was Jim Bannon's best but I liked 17/1 Pulled the Goalie.  Turning for home I was third with a real chance....no.  Faded to ninth.  In the sixth at Arlington The Pizza Man was the prohibitive 1/2 favorite.  He has won 10-of-13 here on his home course including last year's Arlington Million.  But when he returned to action this year in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Handicap he disappointed - and that was with Javier Castellano who rarely loses a big race on a big horse; then in his most recent he was again less than his best in the Grade 2 Wise Dan.  I wrote that this race would define his present talent - is he a step slow now or will the return to Chicago light him back up?  He rallied at 1/2 and to be fair it was a four-horse photo finish, but I never really thought he was the winner - third.  The second of the three Grade 1 events at Belmont was next, the Grade 1 Suburban.  Effinex had won this race last year then run a strong 2nd to American Pharoah in the Breeders' Cup Classic at a huge price.  Off of that effort he won the Grade 1 Clark at Churchill Downs.  When he came off the bench to run 3rd in the Santa Anita Handicap I chalked that up to the long layoff.  I had him when he got his revenge over Big Cap winner Melatonin in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap.  But the issue for handicappers today was his most recent.  On June 18th - we were at sea in Alaska, sigh..... he'd been the favorite in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster.  BUT he was going without regular rider Mike Smith who stayed in California to ride superstar sensation 3yo filly Songbird (to a big win by the way with my $100 win bet from the ship!).  Gary Stevens is a Hall of Fame rider and you can't blame him, but Effinex broke sluggishly, was wide throughout and too far back off the pace.  When asked to run he had nothing.  Today Smith was back on board.  Which Effinex would we get?  I felt certain we'd get the "real" Effinex today.  With the talented Mubtaahij in the field - second behind California Chrome in the $10 Million Group 1 Dubai World Cup - I thought we might get a fair price.  Never imagined that we'd get 2/1 which he was at post time.  He was the lone stalker behind outsider Samraat - a NY bred who had not won since taking the 2014 Gr 3 Gotham as a 3yo.  But the pace was pedestrian and when the two of them turned for home Samraat had something left.  Stretch duel........ 

In the final 16th the classy Effinex was just too good.  The big $6.30 payoff coupled with my triple investment meant I'd cash for nearly $50 on my second Grade 1 win of the day here!  The tenth at Monmouth was scheduled to be a five furlong turf sprint, and I liked Jorge Navarro's Tiscano.  Making his third start for the top barn he figured to be at his best and he was dropping out of a $25K spot for this $16K spot.  He was taking a lot of money and it was a scratched filled race - I stuck with the pick and upped the bet.  Right to the front and kissed this field goodbye!  In the 7th at Arlington Messi looked as good as any in what I wrote was a "wide open 81st running" of the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap.  He was a solid 3/1 and was in prime position turning for home, but he had no response what so ever - third.  The third at Santa Anita was not a big priced winner, nor a big stakes win, but it had to be one of the most INTERESTING wins of the day and a great lesson in handicapping.  Long ago as I learned this great game one of the prime fundamentals is to always start by reading the conditions of the race.  Probably nine times out of ten the conditions simply say in text what the listed condition of the race is....for example the race may be titled "Claiming $25K nw3L" and then the conditions read, "For 3yo and up who have never won three races lifetime."  But every once in a while you get something unusual.  For two winters in a row at Gulfstream I've had a nice score in an allowance race where the conditions were for "non-winners of a race since...." and a specific date is listed, and there is a perfect match for that date.  But this two-turn dirt race had THE most unusual conditions I've ever seen - check out my analysis......

While it's true that some of the others had a mixed bag of turf/synthetic with their dirt races, Enduring Erin was CLEARLY a perfect fit for this unique condition!  As the field hit the far turn she was still close up but did not look like a threat....then the rider shook the reins and she coasted up three wide without taking a deep breath and sprinted home as MUCH the best! 

The generous 5/2 post time odds allowed me to cash for nearly $40!  The race wasn't even official when I hurried outside to watch my third an final live bet of the afternoon.  The 10th was a Maiden Special event going a mile on the turf.  Street Gun was the 3/2 favorite but looked to be pinned on the rail in trouble through the turn.  As I watched from the rail he found a seam and burst to the front as TONS the best!  WHOOOO HOOOO - I am having a good day! 

I had bet the feature at Delaware, the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks for 3yo fillies but when I made the bet I said simply, $10 to win on #2.  As I walked away from the window I saw on the screen that the NINTH was loading into the gate at Delaware!  Uh Oh!  Luckily for me a horse got loose delaying the start of the race and I switched the bet to RACE 10.  But as I "watched" the 9th from Delaware it was pouring so badly you could not see any of the horses.  This can't be a good thing - so I went up and canceled the bet all together - which worked out well because my filly went off as the favorite and didn't fire over the sloppy surface.  Good decision Mr. Mark!  The next story is probably the favorite story of the day!  One of my favorite fillies, Catch A Glimpse was running in Belmont's Grade 1 Belmont Oaks.  I told this part of the story when she won the Grade 3 Penn Mile a month ago against the colts.......When Catch A Glimpse won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf she capped a perfect year on the turf and was 2yo Filly of the Year and Canadian Horse of the Year.  Her first start back came in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride at Gulfstream and she was a decisive winner as TONS the best as my top choice.  I made her a BET of the DAY selection in the Grade 3 Appalachian at Keeneland in her next start.  While she did win and justified my confident bet, there were two fillies that appeared to be getting to her as they neared the wire and I thought at the time that Catch A Glimpse would probably be a "play against" in her next start.  Well, that came on Kentucky Oaks Day when she ran in the Grade 3 Edgewood.  I initially tried to find someone to beat her but she looked to good.  ANOTHER Bet of the Day investment and again she won.  But AGAIN she looked to be running out of steam late - NOW she's a "play against" next time.  So when she was sent to the Grade 3 Penn Mile against the colts I thought today might be the day.  I watched the DRF video and BOTH Mike Beer and Dan Illman remarked that they had thought she looked vulnerable in her last two starts - as I had thought - and yet she was still unbeaten on the turf.  So today, trying the colts they took a stand against her.  I backed off my bet but still had her prime time that day and she won again.  So here we are today and so the first issue is that it's now been three straight races where late in the race she "holds on" but looks like she might be vulnerable next time out.  Add in today she was going beyond 8 1/2 furlongs for the first time - a full, classic distance of a mile and a quarter. AND she drew the far outside post.  TODAY is the day to go against, and sure enough both Beer and Illman remarked that she keeps winning in spite of everything and she's now 7-for-7 on the turf.  What had captured my attention however was two things.  First, I'd read that her trainer said publicly that she's known around the barn as "Little Tepin" as Mark Casse trains both of these fillies and to be compared to Tepin who's probably the best filly/mare on turf in the WORLD exiting a win at Royal Ascot is high praise indeed.  And then the second thing that I thought significant was that Catch A Glimpse looked to be the LONE SPEED of the race.  If she gets to the front, all alone, the distance won't matter, I thought, especially with her perfect turf record and the fact that she obviously loves winning (and therefore probably would hate losing!).  Today is the day to make some money!  So, I wasn't going to make her a "BET of the DAY" kind of investment, but being a typical $5-$10 bettor, a "prime time" play of $20 is a high vote of confidence in my books.  She was the 2/1 favorite through most of the betting and that's much better value than the four previous starts where she went off at 3/5, 3/5, 3/2 and 8/5.  As they approached the gate she floated up to 5/2 - oh my!  The gates opened and quick as you please she was over to the rail and in control.  A long shot pressed her on the outside, but (a) I wasn't worried about that filly, and (b) I could tell that jockey Florent Geroux was sitting chilly.  On the turn Catch A Glimpse but that pace rival away and spurted to a three length lead.  I knew I was home free.  Even though the late runners were making it close, this seems to be her M.O., almost as though she's teasing her rivals to let them think they can catch here, but they can't! 

I was beaming from ear-to-ear and thinking about Beer and Illman shaking their head again while I got great value - nearly $90 on my winning ticket on an unbeaten Breeders' Cup turf winner.  What was the crowd thinking?  :)))))  In the final of the four stakes races at Arlington my pick, Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Oscar Nominated was a very close second at 5/2.  Then I flipped screens just in time to see the finish of the finale at Woodbine.  I looked at where #2 finished and he was off the board - doggone it; I started to write down the odds and result and then I noticed that on my sheet my pick was NOT #2, it was #9......well, who won?!!!! They were showing the slow motion of the final 16th and who's that flying down the outside in the turquoise saddle cloth.....#9, my pick Conquest Dynasty!  WHOOOO HOOOO! 

My fifteenth winner on the day!  The last two races were disappointments as multiple graded stakes placed Firing Line didn't fire in a Santa Anita allowance and Private Zone failed to defend his title in the Grade 3 Belmont Sprint at 6/5 when 4th after leading into the stretch.  But, for the day I was a super 15-for-33, an excellent 44% winning average and I had profited over $125!  A great day indeed!

No comments:

Post a Comment