May 6 - Kentucky Oaks Day

PINK OUT!  It's Kentucky Oaks Day!

With the extended time between races at Churchill Downs I had debated about handicapping some additional race cards for today - it was Opening Day at Arlington Park, one of my favorite tracks; and there was live racing from tracks that I like to play in addition to the racing here at Gulfstream - Belmont, Santa Anita, Laurel, and Woodbine.  But in the end I decided that if I had a good day at Churchill Downs, which was the focus of the weekend but lost at the other tracks I'd be very unhappy.  So I stuck to simply the Louisville races.  It was just as well as I had a full analysis, horse-by-horse, for each of the seven stakes races and then a full race analysis for each of the fourteen events on the card.  I knew I'd struggle to keep occupied the entire day, especially with the first post of 10:30 am so I mapped out a strategy that would have me watch and wager on the first two races via Xpressbet at home, then with a pass in the third race I should have time to make it to Gulfstream in time for the fourth.  I could stay there through the first two stakes races and then be home in time to watch the remaining big events on the NBC broadcast.  The opener was a Maiden Special event going seven furlongs.  As I looked down through the past performances it was very clear who the favorite would be, Steve Asmussen's Modify.  She'd run back-to-back sharp seconds in his first two starts with Beyer figures that were daylight clear of her rivals today.  But there were two questions that handicappers had to answer before putting her on top of their ticket.  Both of those races had been at Oaklawn, and Churchill Downs is a tricky surface that some horses simply don't like.  Perhaps even more significant was that BOTH of those were at 3/4 of a mile and today was a full furlong longer.  Could she get the distance over the unique surface.  The barn and the fact she would run for the Winchell ownership - who had run Untappable here to win the Oaks (in my biggest single bet ever) sold me.  Modify went right to the front and was never in danger to score!  Whoooo hooooo - always good to start the day with a victory.  In the second the obvious favorite would be Conquest Serenade.  I'd tapped this one in his debut and she'd won for me.  But that victory at Keeneland was not without some harrowing moments.  She'd cruised to the front and had seemed in control, but was caught in mid-stretch before re-rallying to gut out a narrow win along the rail.  First time vs. winners, over a new track, and at a short price....I was betting against.  Instead I went with Blast who would be a nice price and she'd already won here at Churchill.  She had top Churchill rider Corey Lanerie and that was good enough for me.  As they turned for home Conquest Serenade was on the lead and Lanerie could have tried to split horses for an outside run but room opened on the rail.  He dove inside and Conquest Serenade drifted over causing her to steady; but the opening appeared again and she surged through.  Conquest Serenade came in again and Blast was in tight quarters and seemed to be bumped not once but twice.  She regained momentum and surged late, but missed in a photo.  I was ready to walk out the door to be able to arrive at Gulfstream in time for the fourth race but the "OBJECTION" sign went up and the replay showed what I thought was pretty compelling evidence to take down the winner.  At 9/2 I'd be cashing for over $50!  After several replays the decision was to make no change.  BOOOOOO.  I left disappointed but excited for the big day while sporting my pink shirt and Kentucky Oaks pin!  I arrived about ten minutes before post time and was able to cash tickets from last weekend - always nice to play with "their money" to kick off the day.  In the fourth I'd selected Family Tree.  She appeared a very strong favorite to me.  Two years ago when I handicapped the entire Churchill spring meet So Cal trainer Bob Baffert was a CD 40% Club member with sprinters he shipped in here, winning at a HUGE 67% average.  Today he also got Javier Castellano, and those two rarely team up.  Family Tree had won her debut then competed in four straight stakes.  Didn't think Baffert would send her across the country to run in an allowance when there are plenty of those in California unless he thought she was solid.  She was the solid 3/5 favorite and after stalking the leader into the turn she justified the betting by running away in impressive fashion! 

In the fifth we were on the turf and my pick, Commend (2/1) pressed the leaders, led in deep stretch, but was caught late by a horse named Uncle Guy.....which would prove significant later!  The Grade 1 La Trionne was next.  Every year when they run this race I think back to the year Blind Luck was the winner coming from well out of it to be just up in time as a prime time play for me....good times.  Well, today's field was a less-than-stellar Grade 1 field.  None of them appealed to me, but I liked Penwith to upset the field.  The rest of the field were off layoffs or off form, or simply didn't look good enough to me.  Especially the favorite, Sheer Drama, who had graded wins on her resume but those had been against questionable fillies and mares.  I'd seen Penwith at Gulfstream and she'd wired an allowance field for me before taking the Grade 2 Royal Delta at Gulfstream.  It was her speed that caught my eye because no one else appeared to be a confirmed front runner.  I could envision her stealing it.  But when they broke out of the gate the rider settled her off the pace.  This will never work I thought and sure enough after stalking into the turn she faded to last.  Next up was the Grade 2 Eight Belles for 3yo fillies sprinting seven furlongs.  The favorite appeared to be Bill Mott's filly Carina Mia.  He had targeted the featured Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks today, but with the upset of the Grade 1 Ashland by a longshot who had no Oaks points, that one had earned a starting berth and knocked Carina Mia to the AE list.  Also in the Mott filly's favor was that she already had a win over the track, a wire-to-wire win in the Grade 2 Golden Rod as a 2yo last fall.  She looked plenty fast, especially at this one turn distance and I anticipated her wiring the field at a short price.  But when the gates opened she was bumped and squeezed back to be at the back of the field!  Really???!!!  But she was handled patiently, made up ground to be into third heading into the turn.  As I watched two thoughts went through my head - either (a) like most horses she'd burned all her energy making up ground to REACH contention, or (b) she really was as good as Mott thought and she was ready to roll.  As heads turned for home she accelerated and blew by the field.  She won by multiple lengths, in hand.  OH MY.  She would have been a force in the wide-open Kentucky Oaks!  And the best part for me.....after initially making her a double investment I'd upped the play to a "prime time" bet!  She paid $3.20 so I'd cash for over $30 tomorrow when I cash my tickets. 

I took my winning ticket, along with my bets on the later races and headed for home.  When I got home the next race, the Grade 3 Twin Spires Turf Sprint was just finishing.  My choice, Guns Loaded - a So Cal invader trailed early and made up ground without threatening to finish fifth at 4/1.  The Grade 2 Alysheba was next and like the La Trionne it was full of horses that I didn't think were legitimate graded runners.  I couldn't find any angle to play so I passed.  Good thing as the winner was $28 winner that I would never have considered!  The 10th was my BET of the DAY!  It was the Grade 3 Edgewood for 3yo fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf course.  My pick was the logical favorite, Catch A Glimpse.  I'd first seen her when Jim Anderson and I travelled to Toronto for Woodbine Mile Day.  On the Friday prior to the big day we'd arrived and gone over to watch the two stakes races for juveniles and Catch A Glimpse had won the filly feature.  I saw her again in her next start when she won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland.  When she made her 3yo debut in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride at Gulfstream she was my top choice and was a devastating winner.  Last time out she'd been my best of the day in the Grade 3 at Keeneland.  The closers appeared to be getting to her late that day and I'd made a mental note that she might be a "play against" in her next.  As I began going through the field I had this thought in mind.  But after looking through the field I thought I'd found the key to making her the play today.  In addition to her being a multiple Grade 1 winner (the only one in the field) and having a perfect 5-for-5 turf record here's what I discovered.  ALL THREE of her most recent wins had come off a layoff.  The ONLY time she'd run two consecutive races - as she would be doing today - she'd run lights out with a jump in her Beyer figures of nearly 20 points!  Finally, I read that her trainer, who trains the best turf runner in North America, and maybe the world in Tepin, made comments that he felt Catch A Glimpse was showing signs of becoming as good as that champion.  Scary good!  I thought Catch A Glimpse would run a monster race today.  She pressed the leaders to the far turn and then accelerated to the front to open up by daylight in what appeared to be a romping win.  But, she - like she often does - began to idle without any competition and the late runners cut into the final margin. 

I agreed with her jockey's comments following the race that if they had come close she'd never let them pass, even if they ran around the track two more times!  I was absolutely thrilled that she'd gone off at a generous 3/2 price so that my $50 play would return $125 when I cashed tomorrow.  AWESOME!  The Kentucky Oaks was next and like it's counterpart tomorrow I thought it was wide open.  If champion Songbird had not come down with a fever I would have made the "bet of a lifetime" on her today as she towered over all three-year-olds....I even think she'd win the Derby if allowed to face the colts.  But with her out it was a wide open event.  One that I thought was an interesting entry was Cathryn Sophia.  She'd run away with the filly stakes and boasted three wins in a row by more than 40 lengths heading into the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks on Florida Derby Day.  But her connections passed to run in Keeneland's Grade 1 Ashland.  I was very disappointed but bet her that day.  She made her swooping move to the front, but hung.  It looked to me like a filly that did not want two turns (it was her first try) so when her connections said after the Ashland they would pass the Oaks and focus on one-turn events I thought she'd be a good bet in the Eight Belles.  But then Songbird dropped out and she was back in the Oaks.  I never like runners who change targets and after seeing her falter at two turns I was against today.  But I was hopeful for her, and she was my son Jeff's bet.  I went with Land Over Sea who had faced Songbird FIVE times and run second twice and third once.  When finally skipping a Songbird race she had easily won the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks.  Land Over Sea came running late at a nice 5/1 but was second best behind the runaway winner - Cathryn Sophia.  As I told Jeff afterwards as he celebrated having $20 across the board on a $11 payoff I had ignored the "second time long" angle that might have led me to her.  Oh well.  There were two late races on the card and I had selections in the first of them.  The 12th was a Maiden Special for three-year-olds going a mile on the turf.  Remember the winner of the fifth, Uncle Guy to caught my choice in deep stretch?  Well, I'd written in my analysis when making him the second choice for me, that if he ran well in that race it would provide a key for the betting of this, the twelfth.  Why?  Because Uncle Guy had run third in his most recent, just in front of Conquest Stormy who was the tepid 5/2 program favorite.  I would have liked Conquest Stormy anyway as any runner from the Conquest Stables who is trained by Mark Casse always runs well.  Julian Leparoux was up and they team up well.  So Conquest Stormy was my bet.  But since I was at Gulfstream to see Uncle Guy win and knowing my comments I doubled the bet.  Seemed like a mistake as he ran evenly in fourth all the way down the backstretch and through the turn.  As they were a furlong out in the stretch he was still fourth and apparently spinning his wheels.  But then suddenly he found a new gear and accelerated.  Oh this is going to be close........

WINNER! And at a nice $5.20 meaning I'd have another winning ticket to cash tomorrow worth almost $30!  What a great day Oaks Day has been!  Ten selections on the day with FIVE winners with a profit of over $75!  I like the way this Derby Weekend is going!

Oaks Fashion