May 26-30
This weekend we took off Wednesday afternoon on a flight to Atlanta and then drove the remainder of the way into the Georgia mountains to spend the weekend at our good friends Sue & Dan Reynolds' lakeside home where we were joined by our other good friends Kevin & Caryl, Lori, and Cindy & Jess. The girls had all worked together at Piper High when we first had moved to Fort Lauderdale, but now we are the only ones left in Florida. I played the twilight races from Churchill Downs on Thursday and was shut out in the four plays. Most likely as much the fact that the track was sloppy, we were off the turf, and I picked some price plays as it was that I was simply off in my selections. The big day of racing came on Saturday.........
I had downloaded the racing cards for Monmouth - as part of my ongoing handicapping project - but had also handicapped the races from Arlington, Churchill Downs, and Woodbine. I analyzed every race from the Jersey Shore but I tried to be REALLY picky about making a bet at the other tracks unless I was REALLY confident. So much so that after I'd published the selections I went back through and tossed two additional races where originally I'd thought I had a solid edge, but in retrospect I decided I did not - and I would have lost both! We spent the morning on a 3-mile hike in a national park through the woods with the mountains on either side and across a dam on the local lake. That's where we are in the above photo. When we got back everyone had their "own thing" for the day and so I opened up Xpressbet and played the races until 4 pm when we took off for a boat trip across the lake to a waterfront restaurant for dinner and then back as the sun set. In the first race on my sheet I liked Oh Oz in a claiming event. This filly was making a first-time start for a tag and had the most wins in the field. Went off at a big 6/1 price, took the lead into the stretch but was caught by the favorite late - second. The second from Monmouth was next, a maiden claiming event on the turf. My top choice was Money Illusion where this one was a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Chad Brown who makes the club simply by entering a runner - that's right, he has won at a 42% clip over the past two years with any runner who is entered from his barn! He set the pace under mild pressure into the lane, was caught, dueled to the wire and was JUST up on the wire as the 3/5 favorite. The double investment netted me a little more than $15 on my first winner of the day. Right back at Monmouth where Bold Quality disappointed at 5/2 when out run by nearly a dozen lengths on the wire. Still on the Jersey Shore for the 4th when I had put the 0-for-14 maiden Spanish Armada on my selection sheet. As I wrote in my analysis, at any track other than Monmouth he would have been an obvious "play-against" runner. But with Paco Lopez riding for Eddie Plesa you just had to put him on the ticket. He was tracking the leaders from mid-pack as they moved through the turn and this was just another illustration of why Lopez dominates the jockey standings. There were four of them battling on the lead and rather than swing wide into the lane off the turn he waited patiently. Sure enough, the inside horse drifted towards the center of the track carrying the others out and opening up a huge running lane. Spanish Armada got his cue and blew by up the inside to score going away. Best of all it was a nice $6.40 payoff so I netted over $15 again in spite of the minimum play. The next race on my sheet was the lone race I'd found at Arlington Park to bet. As I wrote in my analysis, I found the pick ironic because in my "undergraduate years" of handicapping a race like this would have resulted in an IMMEDIATE turning of the racing form page - maiden two-year-olds with ALL EIGHT runners making their debut. I used to say frequently "back in the day" at Calder when they would card many 2yo races in the summer season, "How are you supposed to find a bet and handicap a race like this?" Now I know - it's all about the works and the trainer. At Arlington trainer Larry Rivelli is the king of the juvenile races, especially early in the meet. Well, it was a touch difficult in that there were TWO of them in here. Their works were nearly identical but the key, to me, was that Shackin' Up had the leading rider at the meet, Jose Valdivia, and he was riding at a 30% clip for the barn. You had to figure he'd had his pick of the two to ride today. The plan was to double the bet, but when the betting opened Shackin' Up was being pounded at the windows. That, in and of itself is a key handicapping angles with first-time starters - if a debut runner is taking a lot of money it is often a sign that "somebody knows something!" I upped the bet. The gates opened and literally in the first five jumps Shackin' Up was five in front. Never asked for his best and E-A-S-I-L-Y wired the field as a very short priced favorite.
But hey, I was right, and had upped the bet on my third winner of the day! At Woodbine Ky Causeway ran to his 9/1 odds when a distant next-to-the-last. In the 6th at Monmouth Paco Lopez had Simon Bar Sinister was a big 7/2; tracked the leaders into the lane, made his move, and went by the front runner, only to have that one come back inside the final 100 yards to win. That would have been a nice $50 to put into the account. I had two more races before we were leaving for our dinner cruise. The sixth at Churchill was the co-featured Keertana Stakes going a mile and a half on the turf. I thought Al's Gal looked MUCH the best, and was surprised to see the Louisville on-air handicapper go against her. He went with a runner who he thought would be closer to the front. I thought Al's Gal who was exiting back-to-back near misses in graded stakes looked good enough to overcome a pace advantage like that. As they hit the far turn no one wanted the lead so the Downs' handicapper's pick was on the lead and there was Al's Gal right on her hip. When they hit the turn she glided up to collar the leader and then was nearly a pole better than everyone else!
Just like the Arlington race I'd upped the bet! WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO! Right back at Churchill Downs where I SHOULD have really gone deeper on the wager. I might have had I been on track, but playing online, away from home and trying to be more conservative I stuck with my double investment play on Mines and Magic. He had debuted on the turf and had run into Aeroforce as a 2yo and that one went on to be a graded stakes winner. He was off from that September debut until early in April when she faced heavily favored Conquest Serenade. He got by the favorite but could not keep him at bay as that one re-rallied and was just up in time. BUT it was another three back to the rest of the field. A repeat of that 80 Beyer and she'd win by a pole. She was handled confidently in a sweet spot tracking four others battling on the front end. Two dropped out by the time they hit the turn and then Mines and Magic glided up, took over and ran away as easily best! Another near-$20 into the account on my fifth win from nine picks! I'm having a good day as we head out to dinner!
The scenery was amazing, especially on the way home as the sun set. As soon as we were back in the house I opened up the computer and began going through the replays of my last eight races. First up was the 8th at Monmouth on the turf. Todd Pletcher with Paco Lopez, duh on Al Khazallia. Sent off at even money, handled patiently in fourth to the turn took off for the leader and just couldn't get there in time, 2nd. Next was the 8th at Churchill, a nw3L allowance for sophomore fillies. The choice was Bob Baffert's Family Tree. She'd been an emphatic winner in entry level allowance on Oaks Day and now was in a restricted 3-lifetime spot. BOTH her starts at three had been new Beyer tops and she looked easily best. 3/5 at post time she was in complete control on the front end through a very moderate :48.4 half mile going a mile and a sixteenth. The only one close to her turning for home was a rank 12/1 outsider. I'm long gone I thought. That one collared me, they dueled briefly and then outran Family Tree to the wire - 2nd, again. In Monmouth's feature Paco Lopez was on a 6/1 runner who shot to the front, dueled and stopped - faded to fourth. The second half of the day is NOT going the way I had anticipated, but that's OK because the two BEST BET plays of the day were coming up. The 9th at Churchill was my BET of the Day - on the turf in a 2x allowance and the choice was Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Kitten's Roar trained by Michael Maker. The only question was the return from a layoff, but she showed back-to-back-to-back near bullet works (2nd best work of those that worked the distance on those days). And what sealed the deal was that her last THREE Beyer figures of 87 were better than EVERY ONE of the 173 races run by her rivals today. The other "BEST" was the finale at Monmouth which was a cheap maiden claiming sprint. The jockeys in the race were a combined 9-for-99, but leading jockey Paco Lopez was on Pico. Pico had pressed the pace for a half mile against $30K runners and dropped today into this $12.5K spot. Lopez had nine wins at the meet - that's right, the other riders were a combined 0-for-64 here at the Shore! In Louisville the even-money favorite (what a steal I thought) had the perfect trip, moved to the leader who was 5/1, at the top of the lane, caught her and then the duel was on......right to the wire, never could get by! REALLY? At Monmouth Pico was ridden with the utmost confidence, stalked the 8/1 leader to the top of the lane, effortlessly caught him and they matched strides to the furlong pole. When he didn't readily go by Lopez shook the reins - no; went to the stick at the 16th pole....no. Head bobbing finish, but clearly second also. WOW!
I could not believe it. This CERTAINLY is not how I'd foreseen the remainder of the day going after the excellent 5-for-9 start to the day. FINALLY in the featured Grade 2 Eclipse Stakes at Woodbine I was back in the winner's circle. As I wrote in my analysis, it was a wide-open event with anyone of five or six who would be no surprise. But I went with Are You Kidding Me. Not only was this one a multiple winner over the track and TWO at today's 8 1/2 furlong distance, but he had one of my favorite angles. If you follow my handicapping you KNOW I LOVE bullet works. Well he had a best-of-111 work FOLLOWED by a best-of-95 work in preparation for today! YOWZA!!!! He was the chalk at 6/5 and was sent right to the front. He was immediately hounded by the 8/5 second choice on his outside shoulder. The two raced clear of the field matching strides around the first turn, down the back side, through the far turn, and into the stretch. Both sprinted for home, but in the final 16th Are You Kidding Me edged clear! FINALLY!
The $4.60 return netted me almost $35 on my sixth win of the day. I was 4th with Enchanting Lady in the Churchill feature, the Grade 3 Winning Colors. She was the 4/5 favorite and could not shake loose in spite of setting a :21 and change opening quarter and :45 half. The final race on the sheet was the finale from Woodbine. Toriazeu Nama (what a name, right?) had debuted two weeks ago at six furlongs and was "herded"immediately to the back of the pack in that debut. But he rallied strongly to be a good second when three clear of the rest of the field. Today he should show normal 2nd start improvement AND gets 7 furlongs for his good late kick. He was a more-than-fair 2/1 at post time but when the gates opened he was off slowly and in last. WOW! Patiently handled he began weaving through the field as they approached the far turn; found an open seam and glided up three wide in third as they turned for home. Stretch duel......oh no, not again......but unlike the others he was JUST up in the final strides! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
The generous $6.70 payoff got me back over $50 to close the day! The numbers were strong, a 40% day with 7-of-17 overall. But all those second place finishes, especially the two BEST plays cost me a profit on the day.
Sunday May 29
On the Sunday card I was only playing Monmouth - I only had four races I could find a runner with an edge and only two of those were double investments. Two scratches left me with a pair of investments on the day. In the third I liked Fiesty Valentina. Figured to the favorite "double dropping" out of a Maiden $40K on the NYRA circuit to this $20K spot in Jersey. Got the leading rider in Paco Lopez. Right to the front, dueled through the turn and gave way to finish a weakening fourth. In the fifth it was a low-level claiming event on the turf. Trainer Jason Servis sent out Make It Gold who had run for a $16K tag at Gulfstream and now was in for $12.5K. His last six turf efforts had earned figures of 80-80-73-80-89-80. ANY of those 80 numbers would win today. Top jock Paco Lopez had him settled near the back and he came flying late - almost too late as he was JUST up in time. So with that win I finished 1-for-2 and a small profit on the day.
Monday May 30 - Memorial Day
Today we were traveling home from Georgia. I made the bets in the morning and we were out on the boat for one last cruise before having to drive to the Atlanta Airport. The route to the airport from Hiawassee is on a two, then four-lane highway for the first two hours before linking up with Interstate 75 so you never know about the traffic, AND it was a holiday. We'd never driven to the airport or returned a car. Atlanta is an airport where there is always a bigger time requirement because of the multiple terminals and how big it is. So our plan was to leave about 1 pm which would get us to the rental car return by 4, assuming there wasn't traffic issues. That gave us a good 2 1/2 hours before we needed to be at the gate. Plenty of cushion time, allotted time for long security lines if necessary, and if neither of those took place we could sit down for dinner as we didn't anticipate getting home until 10 or later. All went smoothly and after eating we had about 1 1/2 hours before boarding so I opened up the replays to watch the races from the Jersey Shore. After scratches I was left with five selections. In the first of those, Total Joint was a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Jason Servis and jockey Nik Juarez. This horse had won here last year and then moved into stakes company for his first try against winners - no dice. Returned to win a starter allowance at the prestigious Saratoga meet. Right to the front and wire to wire without ever getting a serious challenge as the 4/5 favorite. In the very next race Sweetrayofsunshine had Paco Lopez. She'd won two of her last three, including a stakes race, with the lone loss being a photo 2nd. Today she was in much softer starter allowance company. Stalked the leader into stretch then took off as EASILY the best. Whoooo hooooo - two-for-two! But that proved to be it for the day. Most disappointing was that my "Bet of the Day" in the Open Mind Handicap looked really tough under Lopez. But More Than A Party didn't give much of an effort as a disappointing 5th as the 4/5 favorite. For the day I finished 2-for-4 with a small loss for the day.
With the end of the month I added up the results for the first two months and you have to be impressed with the start to the summer racing season!
I could not believe it. This CERTAINLY is not how I'd foreseen the remainder of the day going after the excellent 5-for-9 start to the day. FINALLY in the featured Grade 2 Eclipse Stakes at Woodbine I was back in the winner's circle. As I wrote in my analysis, it was a wide-open event with anyone of five or six who would be no surprise. But I went with Are You Kidding Me. Not only was this one a multiple winner over the track and TWO at today's 8 1/2 furlong distance, but he had one of my favorite angles. If you follow my handicapping you KNOW I LOVE bullet works. Well he had a best-of-111 work FOLLOWED by a best-of-95 work in preparation for today! YOWZA!!!! He was the chalk at 6/5 and was sent right to the front. He was immediately hounded by the 8/5 second choice on his outside shoulder. The two raced clear of the field matching strides around the first turn, down the back side, through the far turn, and into the stretch. Both sprinted for home, but in the final 16th Are You Kidding Me edged clear! FINALLY!
The $4.60 return netted me almost $35 on my sixth win of the day. I was 4th with Enchanting Lady in the Churchill feature, the Grade 3 Winning Colors. She was the 4/5 favorite and could not shake loose in spite of setting a :21 and change opening quarter and :45 half. The final race on the sheet was the finale from Woodbine. Toriazeu Nama (what a name, right?) had debuted two weeks ago at six furlongs and was "herded"immediately to the back of the pack in that debut. But he rallied strongly to be a good second when three clear of the rest of the field. Today he should show normal 2nd start improvement AND gets 7 furlongs for his good late kick. He was a more-than-fair 2/1 at post time but when the gates opened he was off slowly and in last. WOW! Patiently handled he began weaving through the field as they approached the far turn; found an open seam and glided up three wide in third as they turned for home. Stretch duel......oh no, not again......but unlike the others he was JUST up in the final strides! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
The generous $6.70 payoff got me back over $50 to close the day! The numbers were strong, a 40% day with 7-of-17 overall. But all those second place finishes, especially the two BEST plays cost me a profit on the day.
Sunday May 29
On the Sunday card I was only playing Monmouth - I only had four races I could find a runner with an edge and only two of those were double investments. Two scratches left me with a pair of investments on the day. In the third I liked Fiesty Valentina. Figured to the favorite "double dropping" out of a Maiden $40K on the NYRA circuit to this $20K spot in Jersey. Got the leading rider in Paco Lopez. Right to the front, dueled through the turn and gave way to finish a weakening fourth. In the fifth it was a low-level claiming event on the turf. Trainer Jason Servis sent out Make It Gold who had run for a $16K tag at Gulfstream and now was in for $12.5K. His last six turf efforts had earned figures of 80-80-73-80-89-80. ANY of those 80 numbers would win today. Top jock Paco Lopez had him settled near the back and he came flying late - almost too late as he was JUST up in time. So with that win I finished 1-for-2 and a small profit on the day.
Monday May 30 - Memorial Day
Today we were traveling home from Georgia. I made the bets in the morning and we were out on the boat for one last cruise before having to drive to the Atlanta Airport. The route to the airport from Hiawassee is on a two, then four-lane highway for the first two hours before linking up with Interstate 75 so you never know about the traffic, AND it was a holiday. We'd never driven to the airport or returned a car. Atlanta is an airport where there is always a bigger time requirement because of the multiple terminals and how big it is. So our plan was to leave about 1 pm which would get us to the rental car return by 4, assuming there wasn't traffic issues. That gave us a good 2 1/2 hours before we needed to be at the gate. Plenty of cushion time, allotted time for long security lines if necessary, and if neither of those took place we could sit down for dinner as we didn't anticipate getting home until 10 or later. All went smoothly and after eating we had about 1 1/2 hours before boarding so I opened up the replays to watch the races from the Jersey Shore. After scratches I was left with five selections. In the first of those, Total Joint was a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Jason Servis and jockey Nik Juarez. This horse had won here last year and then moved into stakes company for his first try against winners - no dice. Returned to win a starter allowance at the prestigious Saratoga meet. Right to the front and wire to wire without ever getting a serious challenge as the 4/5 favorite. In the very next race Sweetrayofsunshine had Paco Lopez. She'd won two of her last three, including a stakes race, with the lone loss being a photo 2nd. Today she was in much softer starter allowance company. Stalked the leader into stretch then took off as EASILY the best. Whoooo hooooo - two-for-two! But that proved to be it for the day. Most disappointing was that my "Bet of the Day" in the Open Mind Handicap looked really tough under Lopez. But More Than A Party didn't give much of an effort as a disappointing 5th as the 4/5 favorite. For the day I finished 2-for-4 with a small loss for the day.
With the end of the month I added up the results for the first two months and you have to be impressed with the start to the summer racing season!
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