We can officially move into the "Fall Championship Season" now as the summer racing season can be closed as racing on the Jersey Shore comes to an end today. I made my bets from the hotel room in Philadelphia before we left to come home and then watched the replays after dinner at home. I had six bets on the final card at Monmouth, the first of which was in the opener, a non-winners of three lifetime sprint where Warp Nine was a the final Monmouth 40% Club play of the meet. When Kathleen DiMasi gives Jose Ferrer a leg up they have won at club levels and he was on board while dropping in class. The fact that he'd been on the pace dueling through :21.4 and :45 flat fractions told me he'd be winging it on the front end. Sure enough, he gunned to the front and was long gone at the furlong pole, but then began to shorten stride. JUST enough to last to the wire!
I had doubled the bet and he went off as a very nice 2/1 price, so I cashed for $30 to kick off the Sunday action! In the third I had Big Yum on the turf but he was checked not once, but twice on the far turn before flying late to grab third. In the fourth it was another restricted sprint, this one for non-winners of two lifetime. Scotland Bay was trained by the meet's leading conditioner, Jorge Navarro and it looked like his uncoupled entry would help ensure a lively pace so that Scotland Bay would have a target to close on. When first claimed, Navarro had won three in a row with this guy before he had his streak snapped by a loose-on-the-lead winner (that I had at a nice price!) and then most recently he'd been in allowance company. The drop in for a tag AND restricted company along with a best-of-71 bullet work told me he was well meant. He tracked the leaders to the top of the lane, dueled to the final two hundred yards and edged clear for my second win on the afternoon!
I had tripled the bet and the 9/5 final odds allowed me to add over $40 to my Xpressbet account. In the sixth I had the prohibitive 3/5 favorite, Rosie P. She dueled with my second choice, Runaway Train who was the 6/5 second choice but couldn't keep pace late, second. But I won again in the eighth with Foxhall Drive. This was a claiming event on the turf and when I looked over the past performances it was clear to me that if 'Foxhall ran either of his last two turf numbers - where he'd been a just-miss second for $25K and a dominant winner for $20K - then he'd win today. It was a "duh" selection for considering today he was dropping in for a $16K claiming tag. Listed at 6/1 in the program was stealing if he went off at even half those odds. He was given a superb ride as he rallied from off the pace while riding the rail and got a fast front-end set-up. Drew off as clearly the best through deep stretch for my THIRD winner!
Almost paid the hoped-for half of the program price as he was 5/2 on the board and paid $7, so I cashed for $35 to ensure a winning day on the final day of racing her in New Jersey. I was pretty confident I'd win one more as Visionary Ruler was the odds-on 2/5 favorite in the featured second level allowance sprint. He was cruising on a daylight lead before getting nailed on the wire! Second, boooo. But for the day I made over $30 and was 3-for-6. The final day enabled me to post these final numbers for the Monmouth Handicapping Project:
THIS is exactly the kind of adventure I had envisioned when I retired. I have to admit that I thought nearly all of my retirement trips would be very much like this, and for quite some time they were. But then I branched out and have begun to take BIG adventures for multiple weeks to international destinations. But last spring I laid out a plan for 2016-17 that would include more weekend racing adventures. The first was intended to be a week ago to Erie for the Presque Isle Masters Stakes, but Kim's health forced us to cancel. With her well on the way to recovery I was free and clear to head out this weekend. What makes this THAT kind of adventure? It had all the elements - fly to a different city/state (check) where there is a big race (check); WIN the big race (check); have a good dinner following the racing adventure (check); and fly home relatively soon after the adventure (check)! Add in that this trip included being able to share the day with my buddy Jim Anderson AND that I had probably the single best day of handicapping on a racing adventure (or at least close to it) and you've got the recipe for a phenomenal weekend. Here's how it all went down......
First, making the reservations. I had considered making this trip ever since early August when I read that unbeaten champion Songbird was targeting the Grade 1 Cotillion on the Pa Derby card. But every time I looked for flights on Southwest Airlines web page the best I could find were to leave on Friday and return Sunday which required two nights at a hotel. And while I'd done that in 2012, I really was more about just flying in, enjoying the day and returning home (since, at the time I was schedule to be in Erie the previous weekend, Ohio the next weekend, and then in three weeks I'll be in France on a solo river cruise). I just wasn't happy with this set-up. Then about mid-month I tried looking on Expedia. And lo and behold there was the perfect set-up on American Airlines. I made a preliminary booking and discovered I could get round-trip airfare - direct flights no less - that would put me in Philadelphia the morning of the race and return by 1 pm the day after, with a hotel and a rental car for about $280. I decided to sleep on it and the next day I told Kim I was going for it. I went online to book it and the rate had changed.....it was LESS! The total package price was a little over $260 and I purchased it. So Saturday morning I was up around 4 am, at the airport by 5 am and we boarded about 5:45 am. Landed in Philadelphia at 8:45 and when Jim and I exited the terminal to catch the shuttle for the rental car we were greeted by delightful 62 degree weather! This is nice! We got the car easily and I set the GPS for the hotel which was located near the track. Since the trip from the airport to the hotel was less than 45 minutes according to our directions we would have plenty of time to check in before heading to the races since the first post was at 12:25. We got off of I-95 and followed the directions to a traffic light where we were to turn left - sure enough, there was the Extended Stay America hotel less than 200 yards to our left....but if we turned right, there was Parx race course! HOW CONVENIENT! We were unable to get the keys to our room but the "check-in" was simply having them see our reservation. The girl told me she'd have everything waiting for me when we returned after our day at the races and/or dinner. So we headed across the street to Parx. As we waited at the light, there on our left - a parking lot distance from the hotel - was one of my favorite restaurants, Carrabbas. We agreed that would be perfect after our day of playing the ponies. We parked, walked in and immediately got our free hat (Jim is wearing his in the photo below). We checked out the shirts for sale and it was disappointing - the only polo shirts had the Parx logo, nothing about the Derby/Cotillion like they had had in 2012, and the logo was MASSIVE. No thanks. The weather was so cool Jim remarked he might have to get one of the fleece sweatshirts! We went out on the apron and had one of the Parx staff take our photo before the beginning of the big day!
We headed upstairs to check out our table that I'd reserved in the clubhouse. This became the second, and fortunately last disappointment of the day. When I'd come in 2012 the staff had been so very nice and I had a table that overlooked the track. Nearly every table does. But today when we checked in the hostess said she recognized my name, but I could tell as she looked down the list that she wasn't seeing it. So she said "Here's your table" and gave us a table up against the wall, away from the windows. Not what I wanted. I asked about one with a view and she apologized but remarked that it was easy to "get up and look over the ledge" and that was true. Not ideal, but ok....at least we have seats for the day. Then they brought "the menu." It was a $26.99 three-course special. After having drinks we asked for a menu with more choices, "Sorry, that's it for today." So let me get this straight, we have a table, where we can't see the races, and a menu that requires us to purchase a full dinner/meal (which we were not happy with the items anyway). Jim and I quickly agreed we could do better on our own so we told them they could give our table to someone else as we were moving on. And so we headed down about 30 steps right up against the glass here on the fifth floor where we had a bird's eye view of the stretch and finish line (you can see in the video at the bottom). At the top of the steps were the betting windows and monitors for simulcast races. Who could ask for anything else? And as a "side benefit" the trips and and down the steps would be "good exercise" for the day (at the end of the day my FitBit showed I walked nearly 4 miles and covered 18 flights of stairs!). We were ready for some racing!
I have to admit I was a big anxious because when Jim had traveled with me last fall to Toronto for the Woodbine Mile I'd had one of my worst handicapping days. It was a great trip and we enjoyed the racing, but I'd gone 0-for the day. So the first race saw both of us on the rail runner, Apache Queen who looked to take them wire to wire. She was a healthy 9/2 and the short-priced favorite wasn't even in my top three. The gates popped open to start the day and the announcer's first statement was, "Apache Queen reared at the break and was left way behind." Really? Yes, really. Trailed the entire trip and was a distant tenth. Wow. And the favorite won. In the second I liked Pea Shooter Pro. Sat farther off the pace than I thought he would, made a strong bid on the turn at 2/1 then hung through the stretch as a 35/1 horse won and I was a well-beaten sixth. Next up was my first play from Monmouth where I thought Irie Mon looked much the best. Sent off at 4/5 he stalked the pace, and then ran evenly to be fourth. This is NOT going the way I envisioned the day! The third race at Parx was on the turf, going nine furlongs in a 2nd level allowance event. I thought Best Bard looked really hard to go against in here. First of all he was the only one with experience at the nine furlong distance (brought to mine the racing adage that you "never bet a horse to do something he's never done before"), including a WIN at the distance last time out. Also, he was shipping in from Woodbine which I would say is a notch better company than runners here at Parx. He he'd won twice this summer over the Woodbine course. Finally, he was bringing top Woodbine jockey Eurico DaSilva. I typically don't often like horses coming off of a win - unless they are consistent stakes winners - so that was a knock against Best Bard. Conversely three of his last four Beyer speed figures would win this by daylight. Two back he'd been a very close third against a horse named Glenville Gardens who had exited that race to set the pace in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile last weekend. Best Bard tracked the pace to the top of the stretch and DaSilva made his move. As they passed the sixteenth pole there were five of them head-bobbing for the lead. Three of them hit the wire together PHOTO FINISH! I was pretty sure from my vantage point that I'd been just in front. And the photo proved me right. Best Bard had been the favorite, but at a fair 9/5 price so with my triple investment I cashed for over $40 and suddenly I was nearly even for the day! WHOOO HOOO!
The next race on the sheet was the 4th from Parx. This was an entry level allowance sprint and Javier Castellano was on board Imperial Hint who was my top choice. The race looked very competitive, but there appeared to be a lot of speed signed on. With the wide draw in post 12 I figured he'd get a good pressing/stalking trip. He'd debuted with a blow-out victory at Tampa then won the state-bred Sophomore Stakes with a big 94 Beyer. Either of these would win today. After that he'd been in back-to-back graded stakes without success. Off for several months he'd returned to be a solid second at Monmouth while clear of a next-out winner who was third. AND since that race he had two sharp works - a near bullet in a sizzling :59.2 and a best of 83 bullet work. He broke sharply but Castellano let him settle as he glided down inside in front of the majority of the field. They hit the turn and while he was wide, he was fourth and in a perfect spot. As heads turned for home he was asked to open up and he burst away from the field! TWO IN A ROW! I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for nearly $30.
I told Jim that already it's been a VASTLY better day than Woodbine Mile Day was :) I was third as the 1/2 favorite in the first stakes of the day at Laurel when Two Notch Road finished evenly. I passed the fifth at Parx and made a series of bets which included the sixth here. I backed up to look at the monitors to check the prices on my three runners and noted that my horse here at Parx was a remarkable 9/1. OK, granted it's early in the betting, but that doesn't seem right. Checked my analysis and I noted that he was the program favorite. Hmmmm. Opened up my program and saw that my horse was #5, but I'd listed him as #6 on my sheet. Uh oh - NEVER return a ticket like this, the "racing gods" may be trying to give me a $100 bonus. I considered keeping it, but then thought better of it and took my ticket back to my new-found teller friend. I told her what I was doing and she might want to bet the #6! At Monmouth Rhythm Queen was a juicy 5/1 and led into the final 100 yards then was nailed in the final strides. Man, that would have been nice! In the sixth at Parx my 5-horse, A Fleet Attitude beat every runner in the field, except the 25/1 lone speed. Best-of-the-rest second. Thankfully that winner was NOT number six! The next race on my sheet was the first of two stakes races on the turf at Belmont Park, the Ashley T. Cole. This nine furlong race was a state-bred stakes and there were four in here that had taken turns beating each other, and I recognized three of them who'd been doing this for several years. So when I see this kind of collection I always look for the "new shooter" to the race. No good ones. Did any of the "old pals" look to have an edge over the others? I found it! Kharafa - who've I had winning tickets on before - was the ONLY one of these who likes this extended distance with a career mark of 3/2-0-1. I also liked that two back he was a sharp second in the Grade 3 Oceanport at Monmouth for jockey Antonio Gallardo who was riding today. This is all good enough for me! Gallardo gave this one a masterful ride as he saved ground all the way to the turn, then when he could have steered him outside to be clear for the stretch run, he smartly saved ground to the stretch. The longshot leader had separated himself and a seam opened up. Gallardo hit the GO button and Kharafa took off. He got a big jump on the late running favorite and was easily clear to win.
And best of all, despite being 9/5 in the program he was 5/2 at post time! The $7.50 mutual meant I'd cash for nearly $20 on a minimum play! NICE! In Laurel's 5th, the Grade 3 Commonwealth Oaks I liked Stella Rose. I was encouraged when Laurel handicapper, and GP analyst last winter, Gabby Gaudet also liked her. She was the 8/5 favorite and made a strong bid on the turn but was carried wide into the lane. She was fourth under the wire and while the incident didn't help her chances I'm pretty certain she would not have won anyway. Next up was the first of the four stakes races here at Parx - The Alphabet Soup Handicap. Ever since I was here in 2012, Pennsylvania Derby Day has always been a big day for me (much like Preakness Day has been). And on that day when I was last here I won this very race! I thought this was a toss-up race, but last Monday I made the mistake of not siding with top national rider Florent Geroux and his horse beat mine in the featured Grade 2 Masters at PID and paid $22.20 for winning the headbob. I vowed not to let that happen again. So with all other factors being equal, I went with his mount, Granny's Kitten trained by Michael Maker and sporting the familiar silks of Ken & Sarah Ramsey. He had him stalking the pace into the stretch, made his move up the rail, but he could not get away from the top two. Stretch duel to the final 100 yards before the Kitten edged clear by a narrow margin! My THIRD WIN at Parx! Sent off as the 7/5 favorite I only had the minimum, but still, I'd rather cash for $12 than toss the ticket. As an added bonus Jim had the winner as well!
I missed at Monmouth before it was post time for the next at Parx, the Pennsylvania Derby Championship - not the Pa Derby mind you. This race also looked wide, wide open. But as I went through the race I determined I did NOT like four of the seven slated to go. Mr. Jordan had been DQ'd from a win in a listed event at GP when he was TONS the best. But he came back to win the Grade 3 Pegasus as a 3yo a year ago June. But since he'd lost eight straight including a simple handicap on the Tampa Bay Derby undercard where again I thought he was tons the best and bet him. He's NOT for me. Encryption had two stakes wins locally in similar races, but he'd twice been badly beaten by Mr. Jordan - toss. Bodhisattva was a deep closer who was too slow. And War Story had last won in a 3-lifetime race in the slop at Thistledowns - no. Two others looked to be destined to run each other into the ground leaving me with my top pick, Cyrus Alexander. This colt was listed at a big 6/1 in the program and was trained by Jerry Holldendorfer who was here with his star, Songbird. Top west coast rider Rafael Bejarano was slated to ride and he looked like he'd stalk the dueling leaders. He exited three straight graded stakes, including a win in the Grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap three back. I was spot on with my handicapping as one of the front-runners emerged with the lead into the lane with Mr. Jordan in hot pursuit. Cyrus Alexander was in third but at the furlong pole but was spinning his wheels. As they raced to the 16th pole I knew I was not winning. But suddenly it was like he opened his eyes and accelerated like his hair was on fire to be just up in time to hand Mr. Jordan his ninth consecutive loss and I was cashing my fourth ticket at Parx. I am having a pretty good day!
Like Granny's Kitten I had the favorite and had only bet the minimum. But again, I'd much rather cash for nearly $15 than toss the ticket :) Typically I do not like to add up my numbers for wins and losses, but especially don't like to add up the bets & wins for fear of trying to "get back to even" so my guess was I was probably near even for the day as we headed into the final two hours of racing. And now was "fish or cut bait" time because the last ten races on my selection sheet were all added money investments with seven of those above the double down play and three of them being "Best of the Day" bets. First up I was looking for a big upset in Monmouth's 7th with Battle Tale who loved the distance of this allowance race. He was 6/1 - fifth without much of an effort. Then I KNEW if I won any races at Laurel it would be with American Patriot, a Todd Pletcher turf horse, in the Grade 2 Commonwealth Derby - my "Laruel Best." He was cooking at 8/5 into the stretch, then ran evenly while finishing a close fourth. Booooo. Here at Parx the first of the graded stakes was the Grade 3 Gallant Bob, a six furlong sprint. I had Castellano on Threefiveindia at 3/1. Strong move up the rail and bid for the win.....couldn't get by, third. Because there is no outdoor grandstand I knew there'd be a HUGE crowd at the rail to watch Songbird in the 10th, the Grade 1 $1 Million Cotillion Stakes so Jim and I headed down. While we were waiting at the rail I opened up Xpressbet to try and watch the feature from Monmouth, a second level allowance, but the race had already finished! I watched the replay later and my top choice, Fuzzy Muzzle looked out of it on the turn and the announcer even remarked in his race call that he "didn't have it today." But as they hit the stretch he came FLYING up the inside and was up in time!
I'd doubled the bet and would cash for over $20. It was approaching time for the Cotillion and this looked to be a great race. Many national handicappers had said that today was "the day" to get Songbird. She was coming off of back-to-back wins at Saratoga and had shipped across the country to run in those races in the heat and humidity AND had been tested to a degree she'd never been tested, though to be fair she won by daylight in both. In addition she now was coming back across the country, running on a new track, AND was obviously pointing for the Breeders' Cup in her next start against older star mare Beholder. She wouldn't want to have a taxing race today so you could believe she wasn't 100% cranked up here. In addition she'd face to two best 3yo fillies other than herself in Grade 1 Acorn winner Carina Mia who made Songbird work hard in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks, and Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia. This filly also had the advantages of (a) being based here, and had been visually impressive in the prep for this race HERE a month ago. She was the strong 5/2 second choice in the betting. Early in the day Jim asked me what price we'd get and I said I'd be surprised if we didn't get 2/5 and probably 3/5 because of all these factors. But with minutes to post time Songbird was 1/9 on the board! The starting gate was just down the stretch from us and we got to see the break and watch as these great fillies blew by the first time. Songbird broke sharply, but conceded the lead to Carina Mia (surprising she'd go to the front, but hey, they'd tried rating off of her and that didn't work) into the turn. I wasn't sure but it looked to me heading into the far turn that Mike Smith was having to ask Songbird to run, but then she glided up to challenge and I thought "HERE WE GO!" But instead Carina Mia wasn't about to concede easily and now Cathryn Sophia had begun her run and was closing in from third. They turned into the stretch and it looked like a horse race! But then as we were cheering on the rail Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith gave Songbird the "go ahead" cue and under a hand ride she accelerated to the finish line in an easy, daylight score! Well worth the price of the trip to see the unbeaten champion run right by us!
When Smith was the regular rider for unbeaten champion Zenyatta he took her to the middle of the track in front of the grandstands on several occasions so the crowd could appreciate her. Today he did the same with Songbird and when he turned her to face the crowd they were right in front, and I mean RIGHT IN FRONT of Jim and I. Truly a memorable moment and I captured it all on video - watch the highlights below! I had debated about how much to bet, and had been a little leery because we'd traveled here and what the "experts" were saying. I didn't want to "lose" the day with one single bet, but the more I thought about the more I was convinced that this is simply one special filly who probably could win the Pa Derby coming up next against the colts. I was ALL IN with a BET of the Day $100 investment!
The crowd had poured in the late money on Carina Mia, knocking her down from 40/1 to 6/1 in the final minutes and this allowed Songbird to float up to 1/5, which honestly was a fair price. Then she paid a click higher at $2.60 and I was cashing for $130 on my second win in a row and FIFTH of the day here at Parx! We decided to hold down the fort at the rail so I opened my phone to watch my "BEST" of the day at Belmont in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel where I liked Ms McDougal. Like the Monmouth race the results were already in. If I'd watched it I would have known to be concerned because this filly is a stalker or closer but right out of the gate she went to the front. This cannot be good. But through the stretch she widened her margin with every stride and ran away with ease!
My "prime time" play earned me over $40 for my third win in a row! I changed tracks on my phone and was in time to see the field hit the far turn in The Oakley Stakes at Laurel - a 5 1/2 furlong sprint. Rapid Rhythm was in mid-pack as they turned for home and looked too far back. But she too found a whole other gear and ran by the first five like they were tied to the rail to win going away!
I had tripled the bet here and so would cash for nearly $25 more! In the Pennsylvania Derby I told Jim that I thought the most likely outcome was that a "go figure" longshot would win. But I also thought I'd give Kentucky Derby champion one more chance. If he would just rate off the leaders I thought he had a good shot. I read on Friday that that was the plan and I felt even more confident. He sat third off the pace to the stretch and made his bid for the lead......and ran evenly to the wire to be 4th at a fair 6/5. The winner - 10/1 on a Javier Castellano-ridden horse. For Chad Brown no less. Wow. We went inside as they were getting into the gate for my final race, the Bert Allen Stakes at Laurel. My pick Rose Brier was the heavy favorite but she was fourth into the turn and I had my doubts. But top Maryland jockey Trevor McCarthy had a ton of horse and when he let her go she blew by and won by double digit lengths as TONS the best - my FIFTH win in a row!
When I went up to the teller's window I was able to hand over winning tickets that added up to $232 in winnings and now I was pretty certain I'd had a good day :) In retrospect it didn't take that long to get out of the crowded parking lot, though at the time it seemed to be moving slowly. We shot across the main road to Carrabbas and sat down at the bar and ordered drinks and dinner. Jim and I reviewed the day and added up our totals - I finished an amazing 10-for-22 on the day and made a profit of well over $100. WHOOOOO HOOOOOO! What a great day! We watched college football for a while then were up around 6 am for a 7 am departure to return the car and head to the airport. While we waited to board I picked up the local paper and read the write-up on Songbird's impressive win.
We were boarded around 9:30 and flew incident free back to South Florida where we landed about 12:45. By around 1:30 I was sitting at home with a giant smile on my face from a great racing adventure.
The first highlight of the day came when Kim and I drove over to the BB & T arena, home of our Florida Panthers and purchased our new jerseys for the upcoming 2016-17 NHL hockey season. We are very excited about the new season after making the playoffs last year and with a LOT of young talent coming back this year. The franchise changed their logo for the first time since they entered the league in 1993 and while we weren't wild about it at first, it's grown on us. Here we are sporting our new sweaters!
After heading to a Cypress Bay High volleyball game we came home for dinner and I watched the races from Presque Isle. As it turns out it was just as well that we were NOT in Pennsylvania for this live racing night. My best days of racing came on Saturday and Sunday where I would not have been at the races. It would have been exciting - as you can see:
THREE runner-up finishes, two of them in photo finishes that I honestly thought I won, but wasn't certain. In the 4th Artesian stalked the leaders, glided to the front and was clear to the furlong pole before caught in deep stretch (#4 in top left photo). In the featured Grade 2 Masters I went with two-time defending champion Living The Life who left the gate at a solid 7/2. In my analysis I finished my comments with this...."If 10-Sarah's Sis (10/1) wins at anything close to her program price you'll have to kick yourself for letting a multiple graded stakes winner, who's last win was the Grade 3 Chicago on a synthetic surface, score at a big price....especially since top national rider Florent Geroux is in to ride! It's wide open, but I'm going with the "Horse-for-the-Course" angle in Living The Life at a fair price." I also didn't like the fact that Sarah's Sis was a front runner and after watching races at PID for weeks, it is rare that front runners hold on. As you can see, when Living the Life came with her big late kick it was ALMOST enough, but not quite as Sarah's Sis held on and paid $22.20. Yes, I am kicking myself. In the sixth Miss Gossip was 4/5 and was a weakening third. In the seventh I got my first win of the night when Irish Cat sat off the pace and blew by the leaders at the top of the stretch to win going away. The $8.00 payoff allowed me to collect $20 on my lone minimum bet of the night....and my lone win. Sigh.....
In the finale I thought Kadie'shorseplay was the obvious choice. Bet down from 4/1 in the program to 4/5 at post time she was FLYING up the rail and I truly, TRULY thought I'd won the head bob, but the $26 outside horse was the official winner (bottom left photo). Exciting races and I guess from an unbiased perspective you have to believe after going 6-for-10 Saturday and 4-for-5 on Sunday I would not have a big winning night. Still, sooooo close.
What a wonderful day today was! After the big day yesterday I was leery about how today might turn out.....why? Well here's why - throughout the summer I'd classify Monmouth racing at just a cut below the quality of the Gulfstream Championship meet, but clearly better than the typical Calder summer meetings used to be. On a typical ten race card there would probably be two races with such bad races/runners that trying to pick a winner was fruitless; then maybe two races where it's very obvious who SHOULD win; and the other six would be a mixed bag. But since the end of August the daily cards are filled with a LOT more of those "bad races with slow horses, and low percentage jockeys for low win percentage barns." SOOOOO as I looked through the card today - and even in the best of times (including Gulfstream) a Sunday - or weekday card - is far more inconsistent and lower quality than a Saturday - the fact that I had several short priced obvious favorites was not a good sign. At the lower claiming levels and with maidens, standouts are often on paper only. This started off immediately when I looked at the first race. CLEARLY, if the race were run to the numbers, the odds-on favorite would be Daring Bride. Any of her last three turf numbers would win this for fun. Add in that last time out was the first time in for a tag, and she'd been 3/5 despite it being rained off the grass and she had traffic issues when a best-of-the-rest second. She stalked the pace to the far turn, but as they raced through the turn she was still fifth and looked to be stuck in neutral....so much so that I was thinking here was a case of a claimer not running to her paper form. But then the rider glided her outside into the clear and MAN she hit another gear and BLEW by the field to win easily.
And the best part was she went off at a very generous 4/5 so I cashed for nearly $30 with my triple investment! Great start to the day. As I handicapped the card and looked at the second race I became even more leery because Goodtimehadbyall looked MUCH the best on paper. In just a six horse field her last THREE Beyer figures (88-83-83) were better than all but one of the combined 184 races, and that had been earned in 2014 or earlier. What are the chances we'd have back-to-back odds-on winners? I can't tell you how many times I have had back-to-back short priced favorites and I've found that if the bets are not the same I always seem to win with the lower investment. So with that in mind I stuck to yet another triple investment. Goodtimehadbyall went right to the front and while daylight clear down the backstretch he was under a stranglehold by the rider. Into the stretch he let him go and it was ALL over.
He was a prohibitive 1/9 so I only profited a single dollar. :) But hey, a win is a win is a win. But, an even better story to start the day.....If you follow my adventures in racing you know that I long ago discovered that my success comes with WIN bets only. Any multi-race wagers are nearly always losing propositions as I'll miss on one of the legs and I would have made more money with straight WIN wagers. But in this case today these first two runners were, as I wrote in my analysis, the "Double Lock Of The Meet!" And so I added in a $10 Daily Double. While I knew it wouldn't pay much, it looked to me to be "free money." Sure enough, when the results came up for the second race, the double was a generous return for me......
With a $10 double play I would collect nearly $30 on two VERY obvious winners! I am having a VERY good day so far! But immediately I was confronted with another dilemma. As I went through the third race Saint Bernadine jumped off the page. She had won two straight races by a combined 18 3/4 lengths - that alone would make him a solid win candidate. But she'd won those while cruising along on the front end, going wire-to-wire, and today she projected to easily be the LONE SPEED. That would make her the pick. In addition to those factors, he was first off the claim for the top trainer, Jorge Navarro - who's winning at a big 38% overall - and he's 27% first off the claim. The rider today is a 35% winner for Navarro. Looked long gone on paper. But seriously....what are the chances that not one, not two, but THREE odds-on favorites win back-to-back-to-back races in these mid-to-low level classes? But, the figures don't lie. I tripled the bet. Right to the front and when the stalkers made their move on the far turn she let it out and notch and was a runaway winner. THREE FOR THREE!
The odds were a minuscule 2/5 but who's arguing with WINNING! No bets until the 8th. Strike N Spare was running for a first time tag at 5/1. Pressed to the turn, stopped badly and finished last. The ninth, well, ready my analysis.....
It just looked too good to be true, and with the roll I'm on today, c'mon, fagetaboutit! Go Trumpy Go just galloped like he was out for a stroll in the park for my FOURTH WIN of the day!
In the final race, Go Trumpy Go was trained by top Monmouth conditioner Jorge Navarro, and with that win he broke a 41 year record for wins at a meet with 56 (my high school number!) wins, including Go Trumpy Go.
So I decided to go back through my records to see how often he'd been the trainer of my winners this summer. As of this day, Sunday September 18, I have selected exactly 100 winners at Monmouth Park! WHOOOO HOOOO! And of those 24 were trained by Navarro, almost half of his winners had my money on board :)
What a wonderful day - the results....
This would normally be the end of the racing week but tomorrow is Presque Isles Masters Stakes Day - we had planned to be in Erie for the big event, but with Kim's medical issues we're still in So Fla. But that won't stop me from playing the races! My totals for Wednesday through Sunday are a spectacular: 36 / 16 - 6- 7 .... that's 44% winners for those of you without a calculator! WHOOO HOOO!
Well, let's start this by documenting Friday....and that won't take long, trust me. With no Monmouth races Friday - what's up with that? - I decided to play the Opening Day card in Louisville as Churchill Downs opens an abbreviated 11 race day meet for their "Early Fall Meeting." In retrospect I probably wouldn't have played all four of the selections if this had been a Saturday and I was handicapping several tracks, so I suspect I had the four picks as much because I didn't have any other cards as I liked the runners. In the opener Lusty Git Yer Gun was 9/5 and ran 4th. In the 2nd, Triple Creek was the short priced 6/5 favorite on the turf for Michael Maker and ran a dismal sixth. In the 6th Untapped - a full sister to champion Untapable looked long gone in her debut, coasting on the front end in a MSW 2yo filly one-turn mile event.....she had been pressed by a 20/1 outsider and I knew she wasn't the danger. But that one kept going as Untapped faded to third. And in the 8th Hesinfront was a sharp second with a big rally between horses at 7/2. 0-fer for the day. On to Woodbine Mile Day.
With Kim still not up to speed and college football in full swing I did not want to spend hours handicapping and then spend the day at Gulfstream where there weren't any races and/or runners to write home about. So I decided to play just the Monmouth card and Woodbine card. I considered playing Churchill where there were three stakes, but two of those were juvenile events. And the one for older fillies & mares I just had a bad feeling. Ahh Chocolate had won the Grade 3 DuPont Distaff on Black-Eyed Susan Day for me and she looked to rebound in the Grade 3 Locust Grove. She seemed to be the speed on the rail and was 8/5 in the program. Thought about and then decided....no. Great choice as I later saw she finished dead last as the 3/5 favorite! I also considered playing the races from Belmont - but again, their stakes race, the Grade 2 Sands Point had two runners I'd seen at Monmouth but the favorite I was not familiar with....pass. The chalk won. So I played Monmouth and Woodbine - and later added the late night Grade 3 feature from Charles Town. In the opener at Monmouth She'satoughbroad looked to be sitting on a big effort after what could have been a winning debut at Delaware but was steadied on heels. Such a bad incident the winner was DQ'd. The barn was winning at a 31% clip with 2yo and She'satoughbroad added to those numbers. Right to the front, opened up by daylight and none of the other juveniles were ever in the same zip code.
I thought that the 1/2 price was more than fair and I cashed for $15 to start the day's racing. After passing the second race I found a unique situation in the third. As I began the analysis, I listed the class and distance on my selection sheet: "Claiming nw2L - 8 1/2 f - TURF." Then as I worked my way down through the field I found Legend of Lorelei. But wait a tic, she's got FOUR WINS - I thought this was a nw2L? Then I re-read the conditions: ".....for 3yo fillies and 3yo and up which have never won two races......" Cleverly spotted by the barn. Typically these kind of races are labeled as a "beaten" claimer, but for some reason this one is nw2L. She looked much the best on paper but I was suspicious that after beating OPEN $40K claimers at Belmont then losing in OPEN $50K company at Belmont that she'd show up in a $25K spot - much less a 2-lifetime event. Was she damaged goods, or was it a clever placing? So I only doubled the bet. Legend of Lorelei cruised to the leaders 3-wide coming out of the turn and looked ready to run away, but she could not shake the front runner and then a closer came.....stretch duel,......PHOTO FINISH! But as the handicapping adage goes, "class tells on the grass!"
I cashed for over $20. In the 7th Quick Thinker was making a bold move up the rail at the furlong pole when checked sharply and had to come to a near dead-stop. Shifted out and flew home....too late, second at 5/2. In the 8th I tripled the bet on City Elitist as top trainer Jorge Navarro dropped this one from a $16K "beaten" spot at Parx to this nw2L for a mere $7.5K. I was amazed she went off at 6/1. When she quickly cleared the field I thought I had my score of the day! But in the stretch she came to a complete stop and finished a dragging 8th. The 9th at Monmouth was a no conditions allowance on the turf and was their feature race. I thought Quest, under Joe Bravo for top turf trainer Christophe Clement was an obvious choice. She probably was best, but what won this race was the sensational ride by Jersey Joe Bravo. She tracked the leaders into the turn, then rather than panic and swing four or five wide while losing ground, Bravo hugged the rail. As the seam opened he accelerated Quest through the opening! The challengers had clear run on the outside, but Bravo had gotten the jump. Three of them dueled through the lane, but the inside move had been the difference and I had my third winner on the Jersey Shore! WHOOO HOOOOO!
Meanwhile, racing had begun on the undercard in Toronto. I had been very conservative with my selections and had made a conscious decision that I wasn't going to lose for the day with Tepin being my BET of the Day in the featured $1 Million Grade 1 Woodbine Mile. In the Grade 2 Ontario Derby on the synthetic main track I went with Berliner making the move from turf to dirt. But he scratched, which opened the door for the favorite to win. And now we come to the first very interesting story of the day.........I was watching college football and had made my bets for the day about noon. I had looked at my selection sheet and saw that post time for the feature at Monmouth, the Quest race, was 4:50 and the post time for the 8th at Woodbine was 4:30. So I decided I would watch college football until 4 pm, then watch the replays of the first four races from Monmouth and the 7th from Woodbine. It would then be close to post time for the 8th at Woodbine, followed by the feature at Monmouth. So I watched She'satoughbroad win and Legend of Lorelei win, and the two losses at Monmouth. I flipped over to Woodbine's replays and the 7th wasn't up yet. So I went to the live racing and opened the video feed for Monmouth and for Woodbine. As the Woodbine screen came online the graphic on the screen matched track announcer Robert Geller's comments, "...and your winner of the 7th is Peggy O...." Shoot, now I know who won :( But the good news was I'd tripled the bet on Peggy O! When I had handicapped the race it was similar to the Legend of Lorelei race from Monmouth in why I made Peggy O my pick. This was an AOC nw2x event which means to be eligible you have to have only won an entry level allowance OR you can run at this condition, even if you've won a nw2x allowance IF you run for the claiming tag. Well, Peggy O had won this condition not once but TWICE! Duh. She was 5-for-10 locally and top rider Eurico DaSilva is winning at a 37% clip for trainer Catherine Day Phillips. Figured to be odds on. I tried to watch the replay, not up yet. The Grade 2 Canadian - the 8th at Woodbine - came up and I watched my top choice, even money favorite Dacita fall a diminishing nose short of her stable mate, 2nd in a photo. I then checked the replays - STILL not up. So I checked the results.......oh my, Peggy O had paid a whopping $9.60! How is that possible? Now the Quest race came online and I watched that and celebrated the win. Back to the Woodbine replays, THERE is the 7th. Eurico DaSilve took Peggy O right to the front......clear into the lane and now here came the closers......I'm going to hold on, and I picked up my pen to write the comments on my sheet, "right to the front, wire to wire" when I saw the #1 horse burst from the rail and collar Peggy O. They dueled for the last two hundred yards and then the #1 edged clear. WHAT????? I was sure I'd seen the results that I'd won. Now the slo mo replay came up and I could see.....when the horse came off the rail he veered three paths out and completely shut off the #5 horse who's rider stood straight up in the irons. LOL - I win my "upset special" via DQ! WHAT A GREAT DAY this must be :)
I had not selection in the 9th, but I had picks in the 10th, the Grade 1 Northern Dancer and in the 12th the Woodbine Mile. Kim and I had talked about taking a walk and I told her I'd like to go now so I'd be back in plenty of time for the Tepin race, my BET of the Day. The wonders of technology....as Kim and I walked out the front door the runners were approaching the gate for the Northern Dancer. I had gone with multiple graded stakes winner The Pizza Man. Last year he'd won the Grade 1 Arlington Million and had burst on the scene as one of the best older handicap turf runners in North America. When he made his 2016 debut at Gulfstream on Donn Handicap Day my daughter Julie and her boyfriend Brendon were visiting. We all went to the track and I had mock slices of pizza for the four of us to pose in honor of the big horse running.
We left before the race and when I watched it online he ran poorly. Hmmmm, what was up with that? He made his next start in in the Grade 2 Wise Dan at Churchill - 4th as the 7/5 favorite. When he returned to Arlington for the Grade 3 Stars and Stripes I KNEW he'd wake up on his home track where he'd won TEN of thirteen starts. But again he failed to fire. He came back in the Arlington Million and though he ran 6th, he closed quickly and was only beaten a length and a half. I made me think he MIGHT wake up here. I had always liked that The Pizza Man was a "close up" pace presser but this year he'd been coming from out of it. But I noted that he'd had a sizzling best-of-41 bullet work in :59 and change for this race AND was getting a new rider. As they loaded into the gate I was telling Kim I went with The Pizza Man to upset the race because I thought he would be closer to the pace due that bullet work and that I didn't think the connections would ship to another track, for a Grade 1 no less, if they didn't think he could do it. Right away I knew I'd made a good choice, win-lose-or-draw because The Pizza Man was pressing the front running favorite, World Approval. I was pretty certain that when it came time to sprint for home I'd outfinish that one (I've seen him run and won with him before!). The question would be holding off the closers. Just as I anticipated, he sat patiently to the stretched, dueled for a 16th of a mile with the leader and then put him away. Here came the late runners, but the old boy reached down and had plenty left to hold on to the win by nearly a length!
The big payoff of $13.10 meant I'd cash for over $30 ..... and I watched all this unfold on my phone as Kim and I were exercising by walking around the block! It was time for the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile! Tepin was clearly, CLEARLY the one to beat despite being a 5yo mare facing the boys in here. She'd already beaten the boys in the Breeders' Cup and would be a favorite to defend her crown this coming fall at Santa Anita. BUT.....this season she'd easily disposed of the gals in four races before being ambitiously shipped across the Atlantic to try the best milers in Europe in the Grade 2 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot. There she was not permitted to use her anti-bleeding medication Lasix; not permitted to use her nasal strip which helped her breathe; was facing Euro males; was racing on a straight course - going the wrong way; AND ran over a boggy, rain-soaked course. But she STILL won! Certainly she'd best these boys. My only concern was the layoff. That her first couple of works had not gone well and the connections skipped a prep race at Saratoga was a factor, but her recent works had been stellar. And trainer Mark Casse has been a fixture at Woodbine where he's won every major stakes race, save one.....the Woodbine Mile. Ironically he was unable to return to Toronto for the race this morning because of bad weather in Kentucky where he was attending the Keeneland sales. My only concern was the layoff. Would she be fully cranked for this with the Breeders' Cup on the horizon? I thought she didn't need to be 100% to win and that this race had probably been circled by her connections since winning the Breeders' Cup. Having drawn the #8 slot in this one-turn turf mile would allow her the best of trips to just sit right off of anyone who showed speed and stay clear without having to be asked for her best until sprinting for home. When the betting opened Tepin was a prohibitive 1/9. With about five minutes to post she floated up to a fair 1/5 price, then right at post time up to 2/5 which I thought was very generous. The race unfolded exactly as I'd seen it. Jockey Julian Leparoux patiently sat in fourth behind three who dueled on the front, glided up in the clear three-wide into the lane. Waited, waited before asking because of the LONG Woodbine stretch, then said go. She opened up by daylight and was hand-ridden to the wire. The challengers were making up ground late but (a) she probably was NOT fully cranked, and (b) clearly she'd not been asked for her best with the Breeders' Cup a little over a month and a half away.
Tepin Wins 2016 Grade 1 Woodbine Mile
I'd won my third race from four selections at Woodbine! And my BET of the Day! This was SUCH a difference from last year when Jim Anderson and I had been on track at Woodbine......
Compare those results with this year:4/3-1-0 (-$80 / +$181.25). In the last race on the sheet, Todd Pletcher's Sophia's Song was a prohibitive 1/9 at post time under Javier Castellano in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks. She broke sharply then veered a little and was quickly at the back. What? Late rally while wide, she was third in a 3-way photo but I knew I'd lost. No matter, it had been a BIG day for me ...... 6-for-10 overall and a profit of over $80. My best day in over a month!
