Woodbine Mile Saturday
What A GREAT DAY!
Well, let's start this by documenting Friday....and that won't take long, trust me. With no Monmouth races Friday - what's up with that? - I decided to play the Opening Day card in Louisville as Churchill Downs opens an abbreviated 11 race day meet for their "Early Fall Meeting." In retrospect I probably wouldn't have played all four of the selections if this had been a Saturday and I was handicapping several tracks, so I suspect I had the four picks as much because I didn't have any other cards as I liked the runners. In the opener Lusty Git Yer Gun was 9/5 and ran 4th. In the 2nd, Triple Creek was the short priced 6/5 favorite on the turf for Michael Maker and ran a dismal sixth. In the 6th Untapped - a full sister to champion Untapable looked long gone in her debut, coasting on the front end in a MSW 2yo filly one-turn mile event.....she had been pressed by a 20/1 outsider and I knew she wasn't the danger. But that one kept going as Untapped faded to third. And in the 8th Hesinfront was a sharp second with a big rally between horses at 7/2. 0-fer for the day. On to Woodbine Mile Day.
With Kim still not up to speed and college football in full swing I did not want to spend hours handicapping and then spend the day at Gulfstream where there weren't any races and/or runners to write home about. So I decided to play just the Monmouth card and Woodbine card. I considered playing Churchill where there were three stakes, but two of those were juvenile events. And the one for older fillies & mares I just had a bad feeling. Ahh Chocolate had won the Grade 3 DuPont Distaff on Black-Eyed Susan Day for me and she looked to rebound in the Grade 3 Locust Grove. She seemed to be the speed on the rail and was 8/5 in the program. Thought about and then decided....no. Great choice as I later saw she finished dead last as the 3/5 favorite! I also considered playing the races from Belmont - but again, their stakes race, the Grade 2 Sands Point had two runners I'd seen at Monmouth but the favorite I was not familiar with....pass. The chalk won. So I played Monmouth and Woodbine - and later added the late night Grade 3 feature from Charles Town. In the opener at Monmouth She'satoughbroad looked to be sitting on a big effort after what could have been a winning debut at Delaware but was steadied on heels. Such a bad incident the winner was DQ'd. The barn was winning at a 31% clip with 2yo and She'satoughbroad added to those numbers. Right to the front, opened up by daylight and none of the other juveniles were ever in the same zip code.
I thought that the 1/2 price was more than fair and I cashed for $15 to start the day's racing. After passing the second race I found a unique situation in the third. As I began the analysis, I listed the class and distance on my selection sheet: "Claiming nw2L - 8 1/2 f - TURF." Then as I worked my way down through the field I found Legend of Lorelei. But wait a tic, she's got FOUR WINS - I thought this was a nw2L? Then I re-read the conditions: ".....for 3yo fillies and 3yo and up which have never won two races......" Cleverly spotted by the barn. Typically these kind of races are labeled as a "beaten" claimer, but for some reason this one is nw2L. She looked much the best on paper but I was suspicious that after beating OPEN $40K claimers at Belmont then losing in OPEN $50K company at Belmont that she'd show up in a $25K spot - much less a 2-lifetime event. Was she damaged goods, or was it a clever placing? So I only doubled the bet. Legend of Lorelei cruised to the leaders 3-wide coming out of the turn and looked ready to run away, but she could not shake the front runner and then a closer came.....stretch duel,......PHOTO FINISH! But as the handicapping adage goes, "class tells on the grass!"
I cashed for over $20. In the 7th Quick Thinker was making a bold move up the rail at the furlong pole when checked sharply and had to come to a near dead-stop. Shifted out and flew home....too late, second at 5/2. In the 8th I tripled the bet on City Elitist as top trainer Jorge Navarro dropped this one from a $16K "beaten" spot at Parx to this nw2L for a mere $7.5K. I was amazed she went off at 6/1. When she quickly cleared the field I thought I had my score of the day! But in the stretch she came to a complete stop and finished a dragging 8th. The 9th at Monmouth was a no conditions allowance on the turf and was their feature race. I thought Quest, under Joe Bravo for top turf trainer Christophe Clement was an obvious choice. She probably was best, but what won this race was the sensational ride by Jersey Joe Bravo. She tracked the leaders into the turn, then rather than panic and swing four or five wide while losing ground, Bravo hugged the rail. As the seam opened he accelerated Quest through the opening! The challengers had clear run on the outside, but Bravo had gotten the jump. Three of them dueled through the lane, but the inside move had been the difference and I had my third winner on the Jersey Shore! WHOOO HOOOOO!
Meanwhile, racing had begun on the undercard in Toronto. I had been very conservative with my selections and had made a conscious decision that I wasn't going to lose for the day with Tepin being my BET of the Day in the featured $1 Million Grade 1 Woodbine Mile. In the Grade 2 Ontario Derby on the synthetic main track I went with Berliner making the move from turf to dirt. But he scratched, which opened the door for the favorite to win. And now we come to the first very interesting story of the day.........I was watching college football and had made my bets for the day about noon. I had looked at my selection sheet and saw that post time for the feature at Monmouth, the Quest race, was 4:50 and the post time for the 8th at Woodbine was 4:30. So I decided I would watch college football until 4 pm, then watch the replays of the first four races from Monmouth and the 7th from Woodbine. It would then be close to post time for the 8th at Woodbine, followed by the feature at Monmouth. So I watched She'satoughbroad win and Legend of Lorelei win, and the two losses at Monmouth. I flipped over to Woodbine's replays and the 7th wasn't up yet. So I went to the live racing and opened the video feed for Monmouth and for Woodbine. As the Woodbine screen came online the graphic on the screen matched track announcer Robert Geller's comments, "...and your winner of the 7th is Peggy O...." Shoot, now I know who won :( But the good news was I'd tripled the bet on Peggy O! When I had handicapped the race it was similar to the Legend of Lorelei race from Monmouth in why I made Peggy O my pick. This was an AOC nw2x event which means to be eligible you have to have only won an entry level allowance OR you can run at this condition, even if you've won a nw2x allowance IF you run for the claiming tag. Well, Peggy O had won this condition not once but TWICE! Duh. She was 5-for-10 locally and top rider Eurico DaSilva is winning at a 37% clip for trainer Catherine Day Phillips. Figured to be odds on. I tried to watch the replay, not up yet. The Grade 2 Canadian - the 8th at Woodbine - came up and I watched my top choice, even money favorite Dacita fall a diminishing nose short of her stable mate, 2nd in a photo. I then checked the replays - STILL not up. So I checked the results.......oh my, Peggy O had paid a whopping $9.60! How is that possible? Now the Quest race came online and I watched that and celebrated the win. Back to the Woodbine replays, THERE is the 7th. Eurico DaSilve took Peggy O right to the front......clear into the lane and now here came the closers......I'm going to hold on, and I picked up my pen to write the comments on my sheet, "right to the front, wire to wire" when I saw the #1 horse burst from the rail and collar Peggy O. They dueled for the last two hundred yards and then the #1 edged clear. WHAT????? I was sure I'd seen the results that I'd won. Now the slo mo replay came up and I could see.....when the horse came off the rail he veered three paths out and completely shut off the #5 horse who's rider stood straight up in the irons. LOL - I win my "upset special" via DQ! WHAT A GREAT DAY this must be :)
I had not selection in the 9th, but I had picks in the 10th, the Grade 1 Northern Dancer and in the 12th the Woodbine Mile. Kim and I had talked about taking a walk and I told her I'd like to go now so I'd be back in plenty of time for the Tepin race, my BET of the Day. The wonders of technology....as Kim and I walked out the front door the runners were approaching the gate for the Northern Dancer. I had gone with multiple graded stakes winner The Pizza Man. Last year he'd won the Grade 1 Arlington Million and had burst on the scene as one of the best older handicap turf runners in North America. When he made his 2016 debut at Gulfstream on Donn Handicap Day my daughter Julie and her boyfriend Brendon were visiting. We all went to the track and I had mock slices of pizza for the four of us to pose in honor of the big horse running.
We left before the race and when I watched it online he ran poorly. Hmmmm, what was up with that? He made his next start in in the Grade 2 Wise Dan at Churchill - 4th as the 7/5 favorite. When he returned to Arlington for the Grade 3 Stars and Stripes I KNEW he'd wake up on his home track where he'd won TEN of thirteen starts. But again he failed to fire. He came back in the Arlington Million and though he ran 6th, he closed quickly and was only beaten a length and a half. I made me think he MIGHT wake up here. I had always liked that The Pizza Man was a "close up" pace presser but this year he'd been coming from out of it. But I noted that he'd had a sizzling best-of-41 bullet work in :59 and change for this race AND was getting a new rider. As they loaded into the gate I was telling Kim I went with The Pizza Man to upset the race because I thought he would be closer to the pace due that bullet work and that I didn't think the connections would ship to another track, for a Grade 1 no less, if they didn't think he could do it. Right away I knew I'd made a good choice, win-lose-or-draw because The Pizza Man was pressing the front running favorite, World Approval. I was pretty certain that when it came time to sprint for home I'd outfinish that one (I've seen him run and won with him before!). The question would be holding off the closers. Just as I anticipated, he sat patiently to the stretched, dueled for a 16th of a mile with the leader and then put him away. Here came the late runners, but the old boy reached down and had plenty left to hold on to the win by nearly a length!
The big payoff of $13.10 meant I'd cash for over $30 ..... and I watched all this unfold on my phone as Kim and I were exercising by walking around the block! It was time for the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile! Tepin was clearly, CLEARLY the one to beat despite being a 5yo mare facing the boys in here. She'd already beaten the boys in the Breeders' Cup and would be a favorite to defend her crown this coming fall at Santa Anita. BUT.....this season she'd easily disposed of the gals in four races before being ambitiously shipped across the Atlantic to try the best milers in Europe in the Grade 2 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot. There she was not permitted to use her anti-bleeding medication Lasix; not permitted to use her nasal strip which helped her breathe; was facing Euro males; was racing on a straight course - going the wrong way; AND ran over a boggy, rain-soaked course. But she STILL won! Certainly she'd best these boys. My only concern was the layoff. That her first couple of works had not gone well and the connections skipped a prep race at Saratoga was a factor, but her recent works had been stellar. And trainer Mark Casse has been a fixture at Woodbine where he's won every major stakes race, save one.....the Woodbine Mile. Ironically he was unable to return to Toronto for the race this morning because of bad weather in Kentucky where he was attending the Keeneland sales. My only concern was the layoff. Would she be fully cranked for this with the Breeders' Cup on the horizon? I thought she didn't need to be 100% to win and that this race had probably been circled by her connections since winning the Breeders' Cup. Having drawn the #8 slot in this one-turn turf mile would allow her the best of trips to just sit right off of anyone who showed speed and stay clear without having to be asked for her best until sprinting for home. When the betting opened Tepin was a prohibitive 1/9. With about five minutes to post she floated up to a fair 1/5 price, then right at post time up to 2/5 which I thought was very generous. The race unfolded exactly as I'd seen it. Jockey Julian Leparoux patiently sat in fourth behind three who dueled on the front, glided up in the clear three-wide into the lane. Waited, waited before asking because of the LONG Woodbine stretch, then said go. She opened up by daylight and was hand-ridden to the wire. The challengers were making up ground late but (a) she probably was NOT fully cranked, and (b) clearly she'd not been asked for her best with the Breeders' Cup a little over a month and a half away.
Tepin Wins 2016 Grade 1 Woodbine Mile
I'd won my third race from four selections at Woodbine! And my BET of the Day! This was SUCH a difference from last year when Jim Anderson and I had been on track at Woodbine......
Compare those results with this year: 4/3-1-0 (-$80 / +$181.25). In the last race on the sheet, Todd Pletcher's Sophia's Song was a prohibitive 1/9 at post time under Javier Castellano in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks. She broke sharply then veered a little and was quickly at the back. What? Late rally while wide, she was third in a 3-way photo but I knew I'd lost. No matter, it had been a BIG day for me ...... 6-for-10 overall and a profit of over $80. My best day in over a month!
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