Tuesday, September 6, 2016

September 4 - 5

Off To See Oliver / Labor Day Weekend

After the l-o-n-g day at Gulfstream on Saturday we hopped in the car to drive to Orlando for the remainder of the Labor Day weekend to see our grandson Oliver.  I had already handicapped the Sunday card at Monmouth and I printed if off before we left.  And before shutting down the computer I made the bets for the day.  I had one race where if it came off the turf I would want to change the bet so I made a mental note to check the status of scratches late in the day.  We left about 8:30 am and arrived in Orlando about noon after making a stop in West Palm Beach to pick up T-shirts Kim had made with Oliver's "Green Arrow" logo (he's named for the main character) on them - see the photo of the three of us below.  Kim was so happy to hold her grandson for hours :)  We didn't do much of anything and around 5:30 I went online to check the results for the day.  In the opener Congrats Kid was the 4/5 favorite and contested the early pace, then stopped and faded to dead last.  In the third Rosie's Faith was the 6/5 favorite and had the ideal trip.  Pressed the 12/1 leader to the turn, forged to the front, but when the deep closer came with all the momentum she had no answer and was best of the rest second.  In the fifth we were on the turf for a claiming event.  Tybalt's Queen had won in $16K and $20K "beaten" company, then had been claimed.  Moved into allowance event the 4yo filly was only beaten less than five lengths.  Today she dropped into an open $12.5K spot and looked certain to make a strong bid.  She sat mid-pack to the quarter pole, made her move and ran by the field to score.  

She was a decent 9/5 and with my double investment I cashed for nearly $30 to put me ahead on the day.  In the 7th the race was scheduled to be a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint and Paco Lopez was named on my top choice Blue Bahia.  This one had good main track form so if the race were rained off to the dirt I was ok with the pick.  BUT, if moved to the main track and she scratched, I would want the MTO filly, Hissy Fit, who is on a three-race win streak.  Interesting that Lopez is named here so if moved to the dirt and Blue Bahia stays in, I'm going with Paco!  Late in the day I checked the conditions and scratches and we were on the turf and Blue Bahia was still the choice.  Lopez had her on the rail and there seemed to be a spot but the horse in front of her stopped and he had to slam on the breaks and checked sharply.  This can't be good, now he's pinned on the rail.  But as the field straightened for the sprint to the wire a narrow opening was there and she rocketed through.  EASILY the best, just had needed room to run!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!  

As the 3/5 favorite I got back over $15.  I lost the last two races when a photo-finish second in the Sapling Stakes at 2/1 on Holiday Bonus and then a fading 6th with the 4/5 favorite in the finale.  These two losses cost me the profit on the day.  Boooooo.  After dinner Brad and I watched the Texas Longhorns beat Notre Dame in a college football game in double overtime.  Arguably the best game of the weekend and I got to watch it with my son :)


Monday September 5 - Labor Day

I found time mid-day Sunday to make selections for today and like yesterday I made the bets in the morning before Kim, Julie and I went to breakfast.  I thought I'd probably watch them when we got home later this evening.  We hung out with the kids through the afternoon and while there I tuned into the live feed from Parx to see one of their stakes races which was my BET of the Day.  The sixth from Philadelphia was the Turf Amazon, a five furlong sprint on the inner course for fillies and mares.  Last time out Lady Shipman had beat the boys in a graded stakes at Woodbine and now she was running against the fillies in a listed $200K event.  Duh.  My only concern was the cutback to five furlongs.  Ironic because the first time she stretched beyond 5 1/2 furlongs I had concerns, now it was the opposite.  She was a prohibitive 1/9 until late into the betting.  Finally floated up to a more fair 1/5 odds at post time.  She burst from the gate and went right to the front.  But a 30/1 outsider was "quarter-horse ridden" on a mission to take the front.  Jockey Joel Rosario readily conceded the lead to the turn then moved up effortlessly to take command.  Through the lane she was asked to run to hold off the second choice and was a clear and easy winner.

I was so happy that after planning a conservative $20 "prime time" investment I went "all in" with a $50 BET of the Day play!  Not that I made a lot of money with the $65 payoff, but it was the point of being that confident and being right!  We headed out about 4 pm and the trip home was the worst ever.  From the time we got on I-4 minutes from Brad & Lauren's we were in heavy traffic and would go from full-speed to full stop.  Certainly by the time we get on the Florida Turnpike this will let up?  No.  AND rain.  The drive home, which is always long was at least 45 minutes longer today AND with no stopping.  Add to this Kim did not feel well and it was not a trip that I enjoyed at all :(  Once home I opened up Xpressbet to watch the replays from Monmouth.  In the 2nd I thought it came down to either Natalie LaRose or Hissy Fit.  The former had beaten $16K and $20K runners this winter at Gulfstream while Hissy Fit had taken back-to-back $12.5K "beaten" events.  In addition Natalie La Rose had beaten the other by 13_ lengths in March.  Still, Hissy Fit was 7/5-2-0 here at Monmouth.  And she ran right by my choice, Natalie who was the 3/2 favorite.....2nd.  In the 4th it was a maiden claiming route.  While there are no rules in handicapping, once a maiden has been beaten half a dozen times they are nearly always an automatic toss for me.  But check out my choice in this spot........

It's one of the great things about racing - each race is unique in and of itself and there are no rules that keep you from thinking outside the box.  Were it not for the 0-for-18 record I would have at least doubled the bet because his figures just looked so much better than the competition.  But when a horse has proven he doesn't want to win you just never know what's going to happen in the final furlong.  No worries today.......

All things considering, the $4.20 payoff was stealing.  In the sixth Joe Franklin was a disappointing fifth at 8/5 and in the 7th Box Office was no where to be found (8th) as the even money favorite.  But in the feature even on the Labor Day card I tabbed Made Me Shiver in the Sorority Stakes for 2yo fillies.  She had stalked the pace in Saratoga's Opening Day feature, the Grade 3 Schylerville and moved to the lead in the stretch, only to be run down late by Todd Pletcher's filly who came back to take the Grade 1 Spinaway on Saturday.  I thought Made Me Shiver projected for a perfect trip today and the race was run exactly as I'd anticipated.

The 4/5 favorite led to a nearly $20 payoff to close out a winning Monday for me.  Ironic that after the woeful day on Saturday, the combined records for the rest of the week (Wed, Thur, Fri, Sun & Mon) was a stellar 13-for-23 (56% win pct) and over 80% in the money (19-for-23).  One last photo of our grandson with the Green Arrow T-shirts :)

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