Despite a Saturday that included only two victories, today was a good day and completed a very good week of handicapping. I decided to continue with handicapping at Presque Isle as this week we leave for Erie and I'll be on track at least for the big race Monday night if not on another day. The day started with the races from the Jersey Shore. In the second first time starter Bubba Chub broke on top from the rail at 7/2 and set the pace under pressure until fading through the stretch, 5th. In the third I tabbed top trainer Jorge Navarro's Tizcano. Since Jose Ferrer took over two races back this guy has run lights out. It looked to me like he was either long gone as the speed of the speed or would be drained by a speed duel. He was gone - right to the front, quickly outran the field and never looked back.
Just too good for these, and he was bet accordingly - as the 3/5 post time favorite I cashed for a little over $15. Right back with the BEST of the Day in the 6th. It was an allowance-optional claiming event for non-winners of two restricted races or a claiming tag. Chubble Maker had seen nothing but OPEN allowance runners since last September. This time last year he'd been in five NJ-bred races and won FOUR of them including a stakes. The move back into restricted company made him CLEARLY the one to beat. Everyone thought the same thing and hammered him down to 1/5 odds. He pressed a longshot leader while well in hand to the turn, glided up willingly and accelerated to the wire as TONS the best.
Cashed for nearly $30. I passed the 7th and 8th, ironically both of the races saw my top choice win and the winner in the 7th I'd named paid $9.20. I had also picked the winner in the opener. So heading into the 9th race I'd named seven horses and five of them had been winners. Only bet two of them :( And in the finale Second Mate was a healthy 9/1 but was never in it, sixth.
The racing scene shifted to Presque Isle and I watched the replays after Kim and I watched our favorite summer reality show, "Big Brother." It's coming down to the final five and next week the show's champion will be crowned. We love watching the dynamics of these people trapped in the house for the summer. In the 4th Fell from Grace was the 4/5 favorite and was well held into the turn while sitting just off the flank of the price play leader. They turned for home, she made her move, got to the front and faded to fourth through the stretch. In the sixth my choice, Flaming Humor was a 3yo that had taken ten starts to break her maiden. But since doing so the lights had come on and she was now a winner of two in a row. Sent out by the top trainer and ridden by a jockey who's a 30% winner for the barn, her last two numbers would easily win if she could step up from nw2L to tonight's nw3L level. She was well back to the far turn, them rallied six wide into the lane picking up ground with each and every stride. Inside the final fifty yards she got to the front and I had my first winner in Erie for the night!
And the best part was she was a big 3/1 price, paying $8.80 so I cashed for $44 and was guaranteed to be a winner at Erie and for the day! In the 7th Tippany had showed quick early speed, but had been fading despite coasting on an easy lead. The drop from open company into a 3-lifetime I thought would get her home. She was in complete control to the furlong pole, open by daylight, but was run by late to be second again. And in the finale Tony's Awards looked clearly best on paper but showed little when fifth at 2/1. So for the day/night I was 3-for-8 and made nearly $10. For the five day racing week my numbers were: 55 / 19 - 14 - 5.....that's a 35% win percentage and I'll gladly take it!
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