Woodward Stakes Day
Well I really don't want to talk to much about today honestly. Take a look at how the day started....
I went back to see how unusual this is, and to my surprise I seem to go on an "empty streak" like this every few months. Over the Gulfstream meet from December to March I had a near identical streak just prior to and through most of the day I was in Tampa for Tampa Bay Derby Day. I also had several runs of a dozen or so in a row. I had one run last year during my "Road to the Breeders' Cup" project where I was 1-for-22. Ahhhh yes, the memories. Guess I try to put those out of my mind the rest of the time! The win that snapped the streak appears to be the BIG BET on Cathryn Sophia, but it was actually at Woodbine. Just briefly, it just added to the "bad day" on Saturday......when I got to Gulfstream at noon the jumbotron in the paddock showed 0 minutes to post time and I knew that this wasn't possible because (a) post time is always 12:25 and my first bet, in the second race had a scheduled post time of 1:03. But they WERE on their way to the post. When I checked the monitors inside I discovered that all my Parx race times were off as well. So as I was suffering through the multiple losses I was also "beside myself" bouncing all over my sheet trying to keep up with who was running next and at what track. But finally, after starting the day's races around noon, I got my first winner at about 4:15 pm. Trust me it was a L-O-N-G afternoon.
Fortunately I had company on the day to help keep my sanity in the form of my buddy Jim Anderson. I have to admit that more than once the thought crossed my mind that I was glad he's been to the races with me when I've had a big day (notably the Preakness two years ago when I cashed on nearly 25 selections on the day!). So from this point forward, let's just focus on the tickets I DID cash! The first came in the 7th at Woodbine where I tripled the bet on Opportunity Rocks. As I noted in my analysis he stuck out like a sore thumb, on paper. Two back he was a best-of-the-rest second behind a runner that came right back to beat allowance company off of his maiden win; and in 'Rocks' most recent maiden try he'd dueled through a wicked split of 1:08 and change for six furlongs before getting nailed on the wire.....and was clear of the show runner who had already come right back to score. No surprise that he broke sharply, went right to the front and never looked back, opening a larger margin with each and every stride through the final furlong.
That's ONE! It was less than ten minutes later before it was time for the "BET of the Day" where Cathryn Sophia looked to dominate a field of fillies in the listed Princess of Sylmar Stakes at Parx. The winner of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks (and two graded stakes at Gulfstream this past winter) just towered over these rivals today and was using it as a prep for a showdown with unbeaten heroine Songbird on Pa Derby Day in the $1 Million Grade 1 Cotillion (Jim and I will be there!). I asked Jim before I bet - what were the odds that (a) I'd get a winner before cashing on Cathryn Sophia at a meager 1/9 and/or (b) was I about to send the prohibitive favorite down in flames with my run of bad luck? She aired as the 1/9 favorite though I must be honest that when she was sitting fourth into the far turn I had visions of the lonely leader not coming back to her. But she was simply too good.
And I must also add that I take pride in the fact that I've learned to NOT let bad streaks affect my handicapping or confidence. I think that many handicappers working on a winless run like I was today would not have stepped up to the window and said, "$100 to win on #2 at Parx" like I did! I will also add that I've become good at putting heart-breaking losses and/or a streak of losses quickly behind me and enjoying the moment as you can see with the expression on my face as I showed off my winning ticket!
As much as I wish I could tell you that I went on a hot streak, I cannot as my next five selections didn't even hit the board. WOW. The feature at Woodbine today was the La Lorgnette going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. There were only five sophomore fillies in the field restricted to Ontario-sired runners. Moonlit Promise had suffered a horrific trip last time and was amazing she still was second that day. Add that to the best-of-37 bullet work since in a sizzling :59.1 and it was easy to see why she was the most likely winner. The crowd was all in on her as well, and she romped wire-to-wire while never being threatened.
I cashed for almost $25. The card at Gulfstream was laden with half a dozen stakes races, as today was the second leg of the Florida Sire Stakes series. Jim left after the 11th at Gulfstream, a stakes on the turf - no, I didn't win, fourth at 5/1. And while I had bets until late in the evening from out west I briefly considered leaving as well, but my BEST of the Day at Gulfstream was in the 12th, the featured Florida Sire Stakes Affirmed for two-year-old colts. Three Rules had been untouchable in his first three starts, which included a win going six furlongs in the first leg of this stakes series. The scary part for all of his rivals today was that if you assumed he would NOT run back to his last race Beyer of 94 - which would win by a pole under wraps - and regressed to his previous numbers of 75 and 74.....those two figures were better than any LIFETIME number earned in the rest of the field! It's no surprise he was the "BEST" of the day locally. The question was, what would be the bet. As you now know I wouldn't hesitate to bet him in any amount after hanging one hundred on Cathryn Sophia while in the midst of "the streak." But with lightly raced two-year-olds, and at a new distance, and it's not like we're at Saratoga here so the true quality is up in the air for debate.....I had a $30 win bet in mind, and so that's the play I made. But as I looked over the odds and the payouts on the TV screen I decided that IF he was even 3/4 as good as I thought he was, he'd win for fun. So I went back and changed the bet to $50 to WIN. He pressed the pace from his outside post position number seven and seemed well in hand as they hit the far turn. The rider let him loose mid-way on the turn and he cruised home as TONS the best! WHOOO HOOOOO!
I'll cash out for $60 when I next am at Gulfstream. I had nine races left on my four-page selection sheet as I headed for home. Significantly today was the first College Football Saturday of the fall and I was wondering if my run of "luck" would affect how my Gators would do this evening. They were not the most impressive SEC team of the day by any stretch, but they won 24-7. And that is better than several others who were highly regarded heading into their openers today! At half time I checked the rest of the results. The first race I saw was my BEST of the afternoon at Monmouth in their eleventh. This was a maiden claimer going 8 1/2 furlongs on the grass. Built For Profit had run figures of 69-66-69-69, all against Maiden Specials in his previous turf tries and the single figure that would be competitive in the entire rest of the field had been earned vs. maiden claimers by a horse who's downward cycled since. True enough, Built For Profit sat mid-pack on the rail to the turn, eased out and was cut loose to blow by for the win! His odds were a decent 8/5 so my $25 win ticket will allow me to cash for over $60 when I return to the track.
The second race I watched was the 7th from Arlington, a maiden claiming event on the turf. Chantses had tried to close in all four starts while chasing a very slow pace. Today I thought he'd get a better set-up AND he was running for a first time tag today. He was flying late to catch the favorite at the furlong marker and they dueled to the final 50 yards before I won, again! And this was the best price of the day.......
Oh how I wish I'd at least doubled the bet, but hey, whatcha gonna do? I must admit I did have the fleeting thought of, "....what if I go on a run to finish the day and get back to a fairly good win percentage and close to breaking even?" Oh dream on my friend. 6th, 3rd, 2nd - when closing like a freight train in a photo at Saratoga; 8th, 2nd when American Pharoah's little sister American Cleopatra was 8/5 and a MAIDEN ran right by her to win the Grade 1 Debutante at Del Mar....yes, a maiden. And in the last race, also from Del Mar my pick was 4/5 and flying.....PHOTO FINISH. Second again. Just illustrated the day where if I was the closer I was also oh-so-close; if I was on the lead in the stretch I could not hold on.....if I was the chalk, the longshot won (in fact in the first seven races at Gulfstream I had three bets, all odds-on favorites - the winners of those races paid well over $20 for a $2 bet; in the four races I did NOT bet the odds-on chalk won.....sigh). If I had a price play, the odds-on favorite dominated as they should have. Enough about Saturday......Sunday morning we plan to leaveearly to see our grandson Oliver and his parents Brad and Lauren. I'll focus on the BIG BET wins and the Gator victory!
I cashed for almost $25. The card at Gulfstream was laden with half a dozen stakes races, as today was the second leg of the Florida Sire Stakes series. Jim left after the 11th at Gulfstream, a stakes on the turf - no, I didn't win, fourth at 5/1. And while I had bets until late in the evening from out west I briefly considered leaving as well, but my BEST of the Day at Gulfstream was in the 12th, the featured Florida Sire Stakes Affirmed for two-year-old colts. Three Rules had been untouchable in his first three starts, which included a win going six furlongs in the first leg of this stakes series. The scary part for all of his rivals today was that if you assumed he would NOT run back to his last race Beyer of 94 - which would win by a pole under wraps - and regressed to his previous numbers of 75 and 74.....those two figures were better than any LIFETIME number earned in the rest of the field! It's no surprise he was the "BEST" of the day locally. The question was, what would be the bet. As you now know I wouldn't hesitate to bet him in any amount after hanging one hundred on Cathryn Sophia while in the midst of "the streak." But with lightly raced two-year-olds, and at a new distance, and it's not like we're at Saratoga here so the true quality is up in the air for debate.....I had a $30 win bet in mind, and so that's the play I made. But as I looked over the odds and the payouts on the TV screen I decided that IF he was even 3/4 as good as I thought he was, he'd win for fun. So I went back and changed the bet to $50 to WIN. He pressed the pace from his outside post position number seven and seemed well in hand as they hit the far turn. The rider let him loose mid-way on the turn and he cruised home as TONS the best! WHOOO HOOOOO!
I'll cash out for $60 when I next am at Gulfstream. I had nine races left on my four-page selection sheet as I headed for home. Significantly today was the first College Football Saturday of the fall and I was wondering if my run of "luck" would affect how my Gators would do this evening. They were not the most impressive SEC team of the day by any stretch, but they won 24-7. And that is better than several others who were highly regarded heading into their openers today! At half time I checked the rest of the results. The first race I saw was my BEST of the afternoon at Monmouth in their eleventh. This was a maiden claimer going 8 1/2 furlongs on the grass. Built For Profit had run figures of 69-66-69-69, all against Maiden Specials in his previous turf tries and the single figure that would be competitive in the entire rest of the field had been earned vs. maiden claimers by a horse who's downward cycled since. True enough, Built For Profit sat mid-pack on the rail to the turn, eased out and was cut loose to blow by for the win! His odds were a decent 8/5 so my $25 win ticket will allow me to cash for over $60 when I return to the track.
The second race I watched was the 7th from Arlington, a maiden claiming event on the turf. Chantses had tried to close in all four starts while chasing a very slow pace. Today I thought he'd get a better set-up AND he was running for a first time tag today. He was flying late to catch the favorite at the furlong marker and they dueled to the final 50 yards before I won, again! And this was the best price of the day.......
Oh how I wish I'd at least doubled the bet, but hey, whatcha gonna do? I must admit I did have the fleeting thought of, "....what if I go on a run to finish the day and get back to a fairly good win percentage and close to breaking even?" Oh dream on my friend. 6th, 3rd, 2nd - when closing like a freight train in a photo at Saratoga; 8th, 2nd when American Pharoah's little sister American Cleopatra was 8/5 and a MAIDEN ran right by her to win the Grade 1 Debutante at Del Mar....yes, a maiden. And in the last race, also from Del Mar my pick was 4/5 and flying.....PHOTO FINISH. Second again. Just illustrated the day where if I was the closer I was also oh-so-close; if I was on the lead in the stretch I could not hold on.....if I was the chalk, the longshot won (in fact in the first seven races at Gulfstream I had three bets, all odds-on favorites - the winners of those races paid well over $20 for a $2 bet; in the four races I did NOT bet the odds-on chalk won.....sigh). If I had a price play, the odds-on favorite dominated as they should have. Enough about Saturday......Sunday morning we plan to leaveearly to see our grandson Oliver and his parents Brad and Lauren. I'll focus on the BIG BET wins and the Gator victory!
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