August 31

A Big Night On Canadian Millions Night!

When I was in the midst of my Woodbine Handicapping Project last summer/fall I really enjoyed the Wednesday night racing under the lights in Toronto.  So as I began to work through this summer and fall's racing cards I decided that I would play those races faithfully each week.  This week was their annual "Canadian Millions Night" featuring six stakes races restricted to runners who had graduated through the Ontario Sales Ring.  As I looked over the excellent card presented I had six selections from the eight races offered and a BEST of the Night in one of the stakes races.  The opener was an entry level allowance on the turf and I thought it was a toss-up.  But Conquer the Course was a Woodbine 40% Club play for trainer Barbara Minshall and at 15/1 I couldn't pass it up.  Near the back to the turn he began picking off horses but flattened out while wide into the lane.  Sixth at 9/1.  In the second race it was the first of the half dozen stakes races, this being the OLG Halton which had been won the past two years by Hampstead Heath.  The top two program choices - and they were the top two post time choices as well - both were marathon specialists and this one mile on the turf would not suit them I thought.  Heath was a generous 7/2 as they swung thru the turn and he made his move.  But he could not get to the long-time 20/1 leader.  A deep closer at 9/1 finally nipped that one on the wire as I finished third - but I'd been right in that the top two choices were not even close.  The third was the OLG Elgin Stakes going 8 1/2 furlongs on the main track.  Melmich had won this race last year and he looked TONS the best tonight - which was reflected in his 4/5 program odds.  This time last year he'd run improving numbers of 91-92-96 before earning a 102 Beyer with a victory in the Elgin.  This year he appeared to be even better with improving figures of 95-96-98 and those had ALL been earned in graded stakes.  He was the BEST of the night in a short five horse field.  As I watched the races and the page turned to the third, OH NO!  Two of the five had scratched.  I'll be lucky to get even 1/5.  I considered upping the wager, but then I noted that the two that scratched really had never had a chance so Melmich's chances of winning had not improved.  If anything in what was now virtually a match race he might have a more difficult task.  I decided to wait and watch the betting.  I was so very surprised when the longer the wagering went on the more he floated up on the board.  He was still a short-priced favorite, but another I gave no chance to was bet all the way down to 7/5 odds.  I considered playing an exacta but if the two favorites came in I would only break even on the two exacta bets.  And if something screwy happened I would be out even more money.  I stood pat with my play.  Right out of the gate the other short price runner went to the front and Melmich, under leading rider Eurico DaSilva sat right on his flank.  They weren't dueling, and they were not going fast - :25 / :50 - but the other horse at 5/1 odds was getting the perfect stalking trip.  As they hit the mid-point on the turn the two leaders stepped on the gas and the sprint for home was on.  Melmich poked his head in front but the other favorite would not go away.  Finally my choice edged clear but now the closing third choice was making up ground......too late, Melmich WINS!  Ironically as I was watching the live feed online as they moved inside the 16th pole and the race was very much in question, the feed refreshed itself and I missed the last 16th of a mile.  When it resumed they had just crossed the wire......wow.  

Considering Melmich had been 4/5 in the program and there were two scratches to take the field down to only three runners I thought that the $3.10 payoff was a huge payoff.  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  In the 4th, the OLG Kenora going 6f on the main track I liked a filly, River Maid to upset the boys.  She was sent off as the 2/1 tepid favorite and got a wide trip turning for home - oh so close, 2nd by half a head.  I passed the 2yo filly stakes, the OLG Muskoka as it looked way too wide open to make a bet to me.  And the winner paid $27 - I was right.  The 6th was the OLG Simcoe and it was for the juvenile colts.  As I said in my introductory remarks, it was a 2yo race and anything could happen.  But the way that Lokinforpursemonee had run in his first two starts stamped him as a definitive favorite.  First of all, he'd been narrowly beaten in his debut which came IN STAKES COMPANY!  And then for his second start he returned in STAKES company again.  I liked that after battling the pace in his first try he was patiently handled and made a big run from near the back.  Strong finishers always are preferred at Woodbine and in two-year-olds stretching out to 6 1/2 furlongs like this that would be an added bonus.  Right off the bat he was at the back, but as they approached the turn Lokinforpursemonee's rider moved up between horses to be just behind the four top ones.  As they spun into the stretch he looked to move out five wide for clear run but a deep closer sealed him inside.  No panic by the rider who waited for a seam.  One looked to be opening between the inside two at the furlong pole but it quickly evaporated.  OK, we're running out of time!  A seam opened three wide between runners and he veered out to hit the hole, which lost him about half a length and the emerging leader was NOT slowing down.  Lokinforpursemonee was now in full flight to the wire and gaining ground......PHOTO FINISH!  Even watching live I was pretty confident I'd been up in time - man that was close.  Watching the reply confirmed my judgement of the winner, but it was indeed oh-so-close, check out the photo:  

I had tripled the bet but Lokinforpursemonee had been hammered to 2/5 post time odds so I only cashed for a little over $20.  I now found myself in a quandary as the finale approached.  For the six races I'd played I'd invested $80, including a double play in the last race.  If I lost the finale I'd be 2-for-6, a strong 33% but with both my winners being short prices, even as the biggest bets of the night, I would end up in the red for the evening.  Should I up the bet here?  Not a good idea to let your profit or loss levels determine the bet, but I've had success in making such late decisions on Wednesday nights several times, especially if the multi-race pools justify it.  I re-read my selection comments on Copper Fox.  This last race was a six furlong entry level allowance.  The bad news was that Copper Fox had always lost ground in the stretch through his previous sprint tries.  The good news was more encouraging however.....first, all of those had been BEYOND six furlongs so tonight's trip was the shortest he'd ever gone; second, of the 76 races showing of all his rivals one figure - which had been earned in a nw2L claiming event - was competitive with the LAST THREE Beyers earned by Copper Fox;  third, he was not a quitting front-runner as he'd shown the ability to press and finish; and fourth he was entering tonight with a smokin' best of 49 bullet work in a sizzling :59.1.  The late double and pick-3 made him the obvious choice.  Made the move and upped the bet to a prime time play!  Copper Fox stalked the 9/2 leader on the outside into the stretch and made his move.  While he didn't sweep by with authority, he did forge to the front and at the 1/8th pole he was in front heading for a win.  But now here came the closers!  The rider peeked back, saw them and asked for a little more and Copper Fox responded to surge to the wire as clearly the best!  

A great way to end an excellent night of racing - and to kick off the first weekend in September!