Sunday, September 18, 2016

September 14 - 15

Presque Isle Downs Masters Week

Wednesday September 14
The plan for this week was to kick off a series of racing adventures "on the road" and the start of my Fall Travel where I'd be gone five of six weekends through the end of November.  But ever since the birth of our grandson Oliver the week before Labor Day Kim has not been well.  Off and on feeling ok and bad, she's gone through one test after another and this week we discovered that she needs further testing for possible gall bladder surgery.  So we made the decision NOT to travel to Erie for the Grade 2 Masters and weekend with her family.  At this point in time the trip to Parx next weekend for the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion as well as the following week to Ohio & Churchill Downs are up in the air.  Racing started for the week on Wednesday and in anticipation of playing Presque Isles over the weekend through Monday's featured card, I handicapped both Presque Isle and Woodbine, my standard Wednesday evening fare.  In the 2nd at PID I trailed to the stretch and had a HUGE rally, to just fall short.  Dynamic Strike was a fast closing runner-up as the 3/2 favorite.  In the 4th Expecting Cash rallied from far back to be third at 2/1.  Finally got on the board in the fifth, a starter allowance going six furlongs.  Marquee Cal Gal had been a perfect 5-for-5 in Erie until her latest when she tried open, stakes-quality allowance fillies & mares.  Today she dropped back into a starter event that she's dominated in the past.  I was amazed the crowd let her go off at a generous 6/5 price.  She rode the rails to the stretch, eased outside mid-turn, circled the field and ran away as TONS the best!  

My triple investment allowed me to cash for well over $30!  I finished off the Erie selections in their finale, a maiden claimer going six furlongs.  Thirdtimesacharm looked like the most likely winner on the PID card.  She was sent off as the 8/5 favorite and was in perfect position as they came out of the turn.  She split rivals for the sprint to the wire, and hung like a load of laundry.....fourth.  At Woodbine I had six selections on the eight race card.  AC Effervesence was the BEST of the night for DRF handicapper Ron Gierkink and was Jim Bannon's top choice.  No wonder as her best two races had come when travelling two turns, like the opener here going nine furlongs.  She went off as the prohibitive 3/5 choice.  But as they moved through the turn and she wasn't gliding by I knew she was in trouble.  Made a bid at the top of the lane, but had nothing for the drive and ended up a well beaten third.  In the second Rumland was a juicy 3/1 and pressed the pace to the top of the lane, then stopped badly to finish 8th.  Finally got a score when EVERYONE in Toronto recognized how dominant Weekend in Malibu should be in this seven furlong claiming sprint.  She pressed the pace to the stretch and took off as TONS the best.  

Weekend in Malibu had been 1/9 for the longest time through the betting action, so the final 2/5 price was "generous" considering.  The final three races were disappointing.  In the fifth Bear's Profit had every chance at 3/1, but was only 2nd best; in the 6th He's No Saint was listed at 8/1 in the program and was a Woodbine 40% Club play for trainer Mark Fournier who wins at a huge 71% with top rider Eurico DaSilva.....third at 5/2 chasing the 7/5 lone speed winner.  And the finale was my "best" of the night where Joshie looked to be an odds-on winner after back-to-back 2nd place efforts, the most recent behind a repeat winner who'd beaten open allowance rivals.  Sent off at even money he looked to be ready to pounce as they came out of the turn while rating just off the pace, but ran evenly to the wire to be third.  Sigh.......

Thursday September 15
I handicapped the Presque Isle card for this evening and I added my BET of the Day from Kentucky Downs where their brief live season was coming to a close.  In the Erie opener Six Gun Salute was the second choice at 9/5 in a 2yo Maiden Special sprint.  Rallied strongly, but only second.  The feature on closing day at Kentucky Downs was the $350K Ladie's Marathon going 10 1/2 furlongs over their undulating turf course.  The obvious choice was Al's Gal.  First of all, in her most recent she had been a fast closing second in the Grade 1 Beverly D at Arlington behind Sea Calisis who was an overwhelming favorite (and my $75 BET of the Day that afternoon); secondly Al's Gal came from owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey with trainer Michael Maker and jockey Florent Geroux.  Even though the Kentucky Downs meeting consists of less than half a dozen cards, those three had dominated the "standings" and looked to add to their winning numbers here.  Her last three Beyers were heads and shoulders above the rest and the crowd sent her off as a solid favorite.  You never know at Ky Downs because of the way the course has hills and dips, and then the long uphill run to the finish line.  Al's Gal was prominent early on the front end and looked like she'd control the race.  But approaching "the dip" down the backside she was passed....that's never good.  But Geroux eased her off the rail and pressed the new leader into the stretch and then let her go.  It was a devastating kick and she opened up a daylight lead which she carried to the wire.  

WHOOO HOOOO!  The $30 WIN bet generated a return of nearly $60 to my Xpressbet account :)  Back to Erie where in the 2nd Sky Above was a short 3/5 favorite - fourth.  Bekki's Dance was the 4/5 favorite and my top choice in the 4th, a claiming sprint going six and a half furlongs.  She was near the back then came F-L-Y-I-N-G with a huge late run to be JUST UP IN TIME!  

I only had the minimum on her, but hey, a win is a win!  I was second at 9/5 when Geistreiter rallied too late in the sixth.  But in the finale I again had saved my "best" for last.  Sad But True looked to be a dominant winner in spite of short figures.  As I noted in my analysis, it was "sad but true" that three figures of 41-43-38 would be "dominant" Beyer speed figures, but they were.  I learned long ago that it's not the number or the talent of the horse in question so much as it's the numbers and talent IN COMPARISON to the field they are running in.  And in this case the last race figures she would be trying to deny were:  20, 16, 0, 2, 30, and 18.  There were two first time starters in this maiden claiming sprint, but one was 10/1 in the program for a 3-for-37 outfit and the other was 8/1 for a 2-for-37 trainer.  Nope.  Sad But True gunned to the front and was quickly more than ten lengths clear through the turn.  Since they were going 5 1/2 furlongs I knew that even if she tired, and tired badly, she would last.  She did weaken late, but no one was catching her tonight.  

My "prime time" investment got me a return of nearly $30 and I finished off a good Thursday with a 6/3-1-1 record!

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