August 28

A B-I-G Day To End The Week / Month

Today was New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival Day at Monmouth with every race restricted to New Jersey bred thoroughbreds with three stakes races on the 11 race card.  I was hopeful of a good day after the lackluster win total yesterday on the highlight day of the weekend.  Because we were in Orlando with the whole new baby experience I knew I wouldn't have time for a multi-race handicapping session, so I planned to just play the Monmouth card.  But after running through the card and quickly finding that thee of the first five were obvious "PASS" races I began to wonder if I could add another card to the selection sheet.  But I couldn't find anything worthy of looking at so I stuck to the conservative five picks.  After passing the opening two races I liked D'wild Kiss in the third who was one of only two runners who'd won on the grass, and the other had not won since October 2015!  He was the 3/1 third choice and was in prime position through the turn and into the stretch where I knew he'd run down the leader.  But that one kept on going at 13/1 odds to a runaway victory.  Second for me.  The fourth was the first of the trio of stakes races, the New Jersey Breeders' Handicap, and it looked to me like Chubalicious was a standout, well worth every penny of the skimpy 3/2 program odds.  He moved into top trainer Jorge Navarro's barn last fall and had debuted this spring with back-to-back triple digit Beyers while winning two stakes races.  The first was a NJ-bred like this one, but the second was the open Mr. Prospector.  He had tried the Grade 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga last time out and was clearly overmatched.  Today he was back with NJ-breds and looked really tough.  My plan was to triple the bet.  I was working online while watching the races and Monmouth Park handicapper Brad Thomas came on to give his analysis and picks.  He never, and I mean N-E-V-E-R goes with a short priced favorite and Chubalicious was sitting on the board at 2/5.  But as he went through the race he remarked that this looked to be clearly his race and the race flow was a perfect set-up for him and he could not go against him.....he was picking the short priced favorite!  Well that's a first I thought.  So I immediately went into my Xpressbet account and upped the ante to make him the BEST of the day!  His uncoupled stable mate set a hot pace and the second choice chased that one in vain while Chubalicious got the perfect trip behind those two.  On the turn the rider asked and he blew by handily to win going away!  WHOOO HOOO! 

My $25 win bet returned $35 and I was ahead for the day!  I passed the 5th and 6th - interesting stories though.  The fifth I remarked "good luck!" because it was so wide open I couldn't even name any horses.....true enough the winner was a $74 winner with no form to speak of.  In the 6th the one thing I was certain of was that Valedictorian would NOT be getting my support after running dully as the prohibitive odds-on choice last time (with my money).  Today he was a very big 3/1 and looked like a superstar - go figure!  In the 7th it looked to all about Banana Anna who was the even money favorite.  Paco Lopez had her in a perfect stalking position as a 40/1 front runner set the pace.  He asked on the turn and she began picking off horses.  In mid-stretch she split horses and had dead aim on the leader with all the momentum.  But inside the final 16th she couldn't get by and the big balloon payoffs were on!  Second, again for me.  No bet in the 8th then in the 9th I liked Bustin Out to wire the Eleven North Stakes.  She'dnot been able to make the lead last time out when facing graded stakes winner Stonetastic.  And three back she'd been run down by today's program favorite She's Hot Wired.  But the more I looked at it two things jumped off the page.....first, that loss had come over a sloppy track so that COULD be a valid excuse.  Second, and perhaps more importantly, her last three fast track figures were 86-87-90.  Clearly the off-going had been a factor.  With no other speed in here I thought she'd be long gone.  Still, not certain enough to go prime time so I doubled the bet.  But again, as I watched the races Brad Thomas came on and remarked that she would be really hard to run down in this spot as a loose-on-the-lead front runner on a fast, dry track.  Good enough for me, I went into my account and doubled the bet to make her a "prime time" play.  Right to the front and never looked back - in fact she opened up in the lane to draw off even more impressively!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO my second stakes win and for the second time my decision to up the ante had paid off! 

The last race I was playing was the Charles Hess III Handicap in the next race.  I re-read my analysis and I liked Jersey Blues with Paco Lopez up.  He was listed at a big 9/2 but I remarked that perhaps he'd go off favored based on the fact that in his four state-bred races in his past performances he'd been a best-of-the-rest second in a MSW sprint, then dominated his MSW rivals sprinting.  And more importantly his last two route races in first level then second level allowances had resulted in dominant wins by daylight.  But ten minutes before post time three horses, including Jersey Blues were 4/1 on the board and a filly, in post ten was the 5/2 favorite.  Clearly no one could make heads or tails of this.  I did a quick check and for the day I was 2-for-4 and was ahead $5.  If Jersey Blues loses I'll finish a strong 40% on the day.....have won BOTH big bets......both stakes races.....and still managed to lose money!  Maybe, I thought, I should cut the bet in half so worse case scenario I break even for the day.  Then I responded to myself to have faith in my handicapping and to take the positive outlook - what if he wins?  I'll have a big day!  And how upset would I be if I cut the bet back?  Just then Brad Thomas came on air to analyze the field.  His pick at a price....Jersey Blues!  He pressed the pace into the turn and then Lopez gave the best signal ..... he took the patented peak under his arm to see if there were any threats coming.  Almost always when he does this at Monmouth he's about to let his horse go to an authoritative win.  Sure enough as they hit the top of the stretch Jersey Blues was cut loose and romped home! 

He paid a huge $9.40 and I cashed for nearly $50!  For the day I was a sharp 3-for-5 (60%) and had profited over $40 on the day!  And for the three day weekend I'd picked NINE Stakes Winners!