Memorial Day Weekend

May 26-30

This weekend we took off Wednesday afternoon on a flight to Atlanta and then drove the remainder of the way into the Georgia mountains to spend the weekend at our good friends Sue & Dan Reynolds' lakeside home where we were joined by our other good friends Kevin & Caryl, Lori, and Cindy & Jess.  The girls had all worked together at Piper High when we first had moved to Fort Lauderdale, but now we are the only ones left in Florida.  I played the twilight races from Churchill Downs on Thursday and was shut out in the four plays.  Most likely as much the fact that the track was sloppy, we were off the turf, and I picked some price plays as it was that I was simply off in my selections.  The big day of racing came on Saturday.........

I had downloaded the racing cards for Monmouth - as part of my ongoing handicapping project - but had also handicapped the races from Arlington, Churchill Downs, and Woodbine.  I analyzed every race from the Jersey Shore but I tried to be REALLY picky about making a bet at the other tracks unless I was REALLY confident.  So much so that after I'd published the selections I went back through and tossed two additional races where originally I'd thought I had a solid edge, but in retrospect I decided I did not - and I would have lost both!  We spent the morning on a 3-mile hike in a national park through the woods with the mountains on either side and across a dam on the local lake.  That's where we are in the above photo.  When we got back everyone had their "own thing" for the day and so I opened up Xpressbet and played the races until 4 pm when we took off for a boat trip across the lake to a waterfront restaurant for dinner and then back as the sun set.  In the first race on my sheet I liked Oh Oz in a claiming event.  This filly was making a first-time start for a tag and had the most wins in the field.  Went off at a big 6/1 price, took the lead into the stretch but was caught by the favorite late - second.  The second from Monmouth was next, a maiden claiming event on the turf.  My top choice was Money Illusion where this one was a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Chad Brown who makes the club simply by entering a runner - that's right, he has won at a 42% clip over the past two years with any runner who is entered from his barn!  He set the pace under mild pressure into the lane, was caught, dueled to the wire and was JUST up on the wire as the 3/5 favorite.  The double investment netted me a little more than $15 on my first winner of the day.  Right back at Monmouth where Bold Quality disappointed at 5/2 when out run by nearly a dozen lengths on the wire.  Still on the Jersey Shore for the 4th when I had put the 0-for-14 maiden Spanish Armada on my selection sheet.  As I wrote in my analysis, at any track other than Monmouth he would have been an obvious "play-against" runner.  But with Paco Lopez riding for Eddie Plesa you just had to put him on the ticket.  He was tracking the leaders from mid-pack as they moved through the turn and this was just another illustration of why Lopez dominates the jockey standings.  There were four of them battling on the lead and rather than swing wide into the lane off the turn he waited patiently.  Sure enough, the inside horse drifted towards the center of the track carrying the others out and opening up a huge running lane.  Spanish Armada got his cue and blew by up the inside to score going away.  Best of all it was a nice $6.40 payoff so I netted over $15 again in spite of the minimum play.  The next race on my sheet was the lone race I'd found at Arlington Park to bet.  As I wrote in my analysis, I found the pick ironic because in my "undergraduate years" of handicapping a race like this would have resulted in an IMMEDIATE turning of the racing form page - maiden two-year-olds with ALL EIGHT runners making their debut.  I used to say frequently "back in the day" at Calder when they would card many 2yo races in the summer season, "How are you supposed to find a bet and handicap a race like this?"  Now I know - it's all about the works and the trainer.  At Arlington trainer Larry Rivelli is the king of the juvenile races, especially early in the meet.  Well, it was a touch difficult in that there were TWO of them in here.  Their works were nearly identical but the key, to me, was that Shackin' Up had the leading rider at the meet, Jose Valdivia, and he was riding at a 30% clip for the barn.  You had to figure he'd had his pick of the two to ride today.  The plan was to double the bet, but when the betting opened Shackin' Up was being pounded at the windows.  That, in and of itself is a key handicapping angles with first-time starters - if a debut runner is taking a lot of money it is often a sign that "somebody knows something!"  I upped the bet.  The gates opened and literally in the first five jumps Shackin' Up was five in front.  Never asked for his best and E-A-S-I-L-Y wired the field as a very short priced favorite.  

But hey, I was right, and had upped the bet on my third winner of the day!  At Woodbine Ky Causeway ran to his 9/1 odds when a distant next-to-the-last.  In the 6th at Monmouth Paco Lopez had Simon Bar Sinister was a big 7/2; tracked the leaders into the lane, made his move, and went by the front runner, only to have that one come back inside the final 100 yards to win.  That would have been a nice $50 to put into the account.  I had two more races before we were leaving for our dinner cruise.  The sixth at Churchill was the co-featured Keertana Stakes going a mile and a half on the turf.  I thought Al's Gal looked MUCH the best, and was surprised to see the Louisville on-air handicapper go against her.  He went with a runner who he thought would be closer to the front.  I thought Al's Gal who was exiting back-to-back near misses in graded stakes looked good enough to overcome a pace advantage like that.  As they hit the far turn no one wanted the lead so the Downs' handicapper's pick was on the lead and there was Al's Gal right on her hip.  When they hit the turn she glided up to collar the leader and then was nearly a pole better than everyone else!  

Just like the Arlington race I'd upped the bet!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  Right back at Churchill Downs where I SHOULD have really gone deeper on the wager.  I might have had I been on track, but playing online, away from home and trying to be more conservative I stuck with my double investment play on Mines and Magic.  He had debuted on the turf and had run into Aeroforce as a 2yo and that one went on to be a graded stakes winner.  He was off from that September debut until early in April when she faced heavily favored Conquest Serenade.  He got by the favorite but could not keep him at bay as that one re-rallied and was just up in time.  BUT it was another three back to the rest of the field.  A repeat of that 80 Beyer and she'd win by a pole.  She was handled confidently in a sweet spot tracking four others battling on the front end.  Two dropped out by the time they hit the turn and then Mines and Magic glided up, took over and ran away as easily best!  Another near-$20 into the account on my fifth win from nine picks!  I'm having a good day as we head out to dinner!  

The scenery was amazing, especially on the way home as the sun set.  As soon as we were back in the house I opened up the computer and began going through the replays of my last eight races.  First up was the 8th at Monmouth on the turf.  Todd Pletcher with Paco Lopez, duh on Al Khazallia.  Sent off at even money, handled patiently in fourth to the turn took off for the leader and just couldn't get there in time, 2nd.  Next was the 8th at Churchill, a nw3L allowance for sophomore fillies.  The choice was Bob Baffert's Family Tree.  She'd been an emphatic winner in entry level allowance on Oaks Day and now was in a restricted 3-lifetime spot.  BOTH her starts at three had been new Beyer tops and she looked easily best.  3/5 at post time she was in complete control on the front end through a very moderate :48.4 half mile going a mile and a sixteenth.  The only one close to her turning for home was a rank 12/1 outsider.  I'm long gone I thought.  That one collared me, they dueled briefly and then outran Family Tree to the wire - 2nd, again.  In Monmouth's feature Paco Lopez was on a 6/1 runner who shot to the front, dueled and stopped - faded to fourth.  The second half of the day is NOT going the way I had anticipated, but that's OK because the two BEST BET plays of the day were coming up.  The 9th at Churchill was my BET of the Day - on the turf in a 2x allowance and the choice was Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Kitten's Roar trained by Michael Maker.  The only question was the return from a layoff, but she showed back-to-back-to-back near bullet works (2nd best work of those that worked the distance on those days).  And what sealed the deal was that her last THREE Beyer figures of 87 were better than EVERY ONE of the 173 races run by her rivals today.  The other "BEST" was the finale at Monmouth which was a cheap maiden claiming sprint.  The jockeys in the race were a combined 9-for-99, but leading jockey Paco Lopez was on Pico.  Pico had pressed the pace for a half mile against $30K runners and dropped today into this $12.5K spot.  Lopez had nine wins at the meet - that's right, the other riders were a combined 0-for-64 here at the Shore!  In Louisville the even-money favorite (what a steal I thought) had the perfect trip, moved to the leader who was 5/1, at the top of the lane, caught her and then the duel was on......right to the wire, never could get by!  REALLY?  At Monmouth Pico was ridden with the utmost confidence, stalked the 8/1 leader to the top of the lane, effortlessly caught him and they matched strides to the furlong pole.  When he didn't readily go by Lopez shook the reins - no; went to the stick at the 16th pole....no.  Head bobbing finish, but clearly second also.  WOW! 

I could not believe it.  This CERTAINLY is not how I'd foreseen the remainder of the day going after the excellent 5-for-9 start to the day.  FINALLY in the featured Grade 2 Eclipse Stakes at Woodbine I was back in the winner's circle.  As I wrote in my analysis, it was a wide-open event with anyone of five or six who would be no surprise.  But I went with Are You Kidding Me.  Not only was this one a multiple winner over the track and TWO at today's 8 1/2 furlong distance, but he had one of my favorite angles.  If you follow my handicapping you KNOW I LOVE bullet works.  Well he had a best-of-111 work FOLLOWED by a best-of-95 work in preparation for today!  YOWZA!!!!  He was the chalk at 6/5 and was sent right to the front.  He was immediately hounded by the 8/5 second choice on his outside shoulder.  The two raced clear of the field matching strides around the first turn, down the back side, through the far turn, and into the stretch.  Both sprinted for home, but in the final 16th Are You Kidding Me edged clear!  FINALLY! 

The $4.60 return netted me almost $35 on my sixth win of the day.  I was 4th with Enchanting Lady in the Churchill feature, the Grade 3 Winning Colors.  She was the 4/5 favorite and could not shake loose in spite of setting a :21 and change opening quarter and :45 half.  The final race on the sheet was the finale from Woodbine.  Toriazeu Nama (what a name, right?)  had debuted two weeks ago at six furlongs and was "herded"immediately to the back of the pack in that debut.  But he rallied strongly to be a good second when three clear of the rest of the field.  Today he should show normal 2nd start improvement AND gets 7 furlongs for his good late kick.  He was a more-than-fair 2/1 at post time but when the gates opened he was off slowly and in last.  WOW!  Patiently handled he began weaving through the field as they approached the far turn; found an open seam and glided up three wide in third as they turned for home.  Stretch duel......oh no, not again......but unlike the others he was JUST up in the final strides!  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

The generous $6.70 payoff got me back over $50 to close the day!  The numbers were strong, a 40% day with 7-of-17 overall.  But all those second place finishes, especially the two BEST plays cost me a profit on the day.  

Sunday May 29
On the Sunday card I was only playing Monmouth - I only had four races I could find a runner with an edge and only two of those were double investments.  Two scratches left me with a pair of investments on the day.  In the third I liked Fiesty Valentina.  Figured to the favorite "double dropping" out of a Maiden $40K on the NYRA circuit to this $20K spot in Jersey.  Got the leading rider in Paco Lopez.  Right to the front, dueled through the turn and gave way to finish a weakening fourth.  In the fifth it was a low-level claiming event on the turf.  Trainer Jason Servis sent out Make It Gold who had run for a $16K tag at Gulfstream and now was in for $12.5K.  His last six turf efforts had earned figures of 80-80-73-80-89-80.  ANY of those 80 numbers would win today.  Top jock Paco Lopez had him settled near the back and he came flying late - almost too late as he was JUST up in time.  So with that win I finished 1-for-2 and a small profit on the day.

Monday May 30 - Memorial Day
Today we were traveling home from Georgia.  I made the bets in the morning and we were out on the boat for one last cruise before having to drive to the Atlanta Airport.  The route to the airport from Hiawassee is on a two, then four-lane highway for the first two hours before linking up with Interstate 75 so you never know about the traffic, AND it was a holiday.  We'd never driven to the airport or returned a car.  Atlanta is an airport where there is always a bigger time requirement because of the multiple terminals and how big it is.  So our plan was to leave about 1 pm which would get us to the rental car return by 4, assuming there wasn't traffic issues.  That gave us a good 2 1/2 hours before we needed to be at the gate.  Plenty of cushion time, allotted time for long security lines if necessary, and if neither of those took place we could sit down for dinner as we didn't anticipate getting home until 10 or later.  All went smoothly and after eating we had about 1 1/2 hours before boarding so I opened up the replays to watch the races from the Jersey Shore.  After scratches I was left with five selections.  In the first of those, Total Joint was a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Jason Servis and jockey Nik Juarez.  This horse had won here last year and then moved into stakes company for his first try against winners - no dice.  Returned to win a starter allowance at the prestigious Saratoga meet.  Right to the front and wire to wire without ever getting a serious challenge as the 4/5 favorite.  In the very next race Sweetrayofsunshine had Paco Lopez.  She'd won two of her last three, including a stakes race, with the lone loss being a photo 2nd.  Today she was in much softer starter allowance company.  Stalked the leader into stretch then took off as EASILY the best.  Whoooo hooooo - two-for-two!  But that proved to be it for the day.  Most disappointing was that my "Bet of the Day" in the Open Mind Handicap looked really tough under Lopez.  But More Than A Party didn't give much of an effort as a disappointing 5th as the 4/5 favorite.  For the day I finished 2-for-4 with a small loss for the day.

With the end of the month I added up the results for the first two months and you have to be impressed with the start to the summer racing season!

May 23: Sunday At The Shore

WOW What A Weekend At The Shore!

When I made the decision to handicap the Monmouth racing cards throughout the summer, it was based on memories of weekends like this!  For Preakness Saturday it was a big plus to get off to a fast start with three straight wins, and while I didn't "get rich" with my selections on Saturday it kept me "in the game" and positive while I was waiting to score at Pimlico.  Who wouldn't take a 40% day with a positive profit?  But it was Sunday that was the B-I-G day on the Jersey Shore...... 

After the very successful weekend, and such an enjoyable time in Ohio, I was scheduled to fly out at 1 pm.  My sister and niece arrived a little before 11 am and the plan was to head to the airport about 11:45.  Then at about 11:25 I got a text from Southwest that my flight was delayed until 2 pm; minutes later another that said it was delayed until 3:20; and about half an hour later a third saying it was delayed until 4 pm.  Sigh.......  So I was able to stay with my family for a while longer.  We headed to the Columbus airport around 1 just in case the flight was moved closer to it's original take off time.  I walked into the terminal and on the big display board it showed that the flight was scheduled back at 3:20.  Better than 4 pm I thought.  I got through security easily and when I headed to my gate I passed another monitor; a quick glance and then I did a double-take.....it NOW said we were LEAVING ON TIME at 1:30 - and it was 1:30 at this minute.  I hustled to the gate and sure enough people were boarding!  I asked the SW clerk was this the flight to Fort Lauderdale?  No, this was to Fort Myers, "your flight is scheduled for 4 pm sir."  Oh.  So as I awaited the boarding process to begin I worked on the highlight video for Preakness weekend.  At about 2:45 pm they announced that we were moving to another gate so I took my stuff and plugged my computer in, figuring I would have time to check out the first few races from Monmouth.  I had handicapped the card Friday morning and made the investments before leaving this morning.  In the second race I liked Johnny U - named I'm sure after Johnny Unitas who was my hero growing up as QB for the Baltimore Colts.  This one would be hard to swallow at his near certain odds-on price with nine losses already and still in maiden claiming company.  But the first six had been in MSW and the majority of the nine were on the tough NYRA circuit.  The move to Monmouth and to top rider Paco Lopez meant he was a likely winner.  I opened the replay and Johnny U was 2/5 and ran like it, under a confident hand ride with Paco Lopez doing his usual "I'm better than you" looking around through the stretch for the competition.  I'd doubled the bet, so I will take the easy money.  I missed on the 4th where I tripled the bet on the turf and Vipera was a non-threatening sixth at 2/1 odds.  In the fifth Silver Majorette was the 6/5 post-time favorite and a Monmouth 40% Club play.  After stumbling at the start she recovered, made a bid on the turn and fell back to finish 6th.  It was post time for the 6th and I could see they were preparing to begin the boarding process, but I knew I'd have time to watch.  My choice in this 2-lifetime claiming sprint was Hissy Fit.  The conditions for the race read, ".....for 3yo or 3yo and up which have never won two races....."  The other nine in here were maiden-winners only and fit the nw2L condition; but Hissy Fit was 2-for-5 lifetime and dropped out of nw3L company!  That alone would make her the bet, but with Lopez riding for long-time client Eddie Plesa, who was training the filly for his wife Laurie Plesa it was a "duh" selection.  But as they left the gate I was amazed that the crowd had NOT made her the favorite!  As they hit the far turn a long shot was on the lead with Lopez confidently handling the Plesa filly.  The 8/5 favorite was making a bid as Lopez let it out a notch.  Though the chalk made up ground the rider was imploring his filly for all she was worth while Lopez sat there like a statute.  As heads turned for home he asked and it was ALL over.  Romping victory at a huge $6.80 price.  And I'd tripled the bet!  Cashed for over $50 and I'm having a great day. 

As I was shutting down the laptop I got a text from my son Jeff who'd had both winners and he was grateful and excited as he'd passed on the other two, losing, picks of the day.  He asked if there were any more picks, and I said to check out my selections as the "BEST of the Day" was in the featured 9th.  We boarded and the flight went by smoothly, looked like we'd be about a half hour early as we approached from the west and I thought to myself I always like when the flight comes into Fort Lauderdale from the west.  When you fly down the coast they always circle out to the western edge near our home and the Sawgrass Mills Mall, turn around and land.  So when they approach from the west you avoid this ten minute or more delay.  But as we approached Fort Lauderdale International I knew we were too high to land - seriously?  We're flying out over the Atlantic to circle back around?  Yes.  Took about ten minutes, but what ever.  As we made our final descent I thought we were too high and we passed the beginning of the runway and were even past the terminal as we closed in on the ground.  Still, we'd make it, close, but I was confident that the crew knew what they were doing.  We got about 20-50 feet off the ground and suddenly we swooped back in the air.  WHAT THE??? The airline attendant came on and said "when it rains it pours" in regards to the delayed flight and now delayed landing.  We flew out to the Sawgrass and headed back - surely we'll land from the west, yes?  No.  Flew right on by, out over the Atlantic and circled back again.  The pilot came on and said there had been a "gust of wind that blew us out of the landing zone" - uh, yeah.  Seemed to me like they just mis-judged the runway!  We landed at about 6:35, so we were pretty much "on time" but a good 30 plus minutes from when we could have landed.  I was near the front and was quickly off the plane.  As soon as my phone came on I could see there was a text from Jeff.  Would this mean we'd won or we'd lost the feature at Monmouth?  I was walking to the parking garage carrying my luggage and trying to manipulate my phone to the video replay with my thumb and as I finally got it playing it looked like 1-Full Salute - who was the LONE SPEED in a five horse field under Lopez was leading them into the stretch, but was under pressure.  Why am I not hearing the call I wondered....oh, the sound is off.  As I flipped the sound on the #7 blew by and the announcer said, ".....and the favorite blows on by....."  That's odd, I would have thought the #1 with Lopez would be the favorite.  So, now knowing that I'd lost I opened Jeff's text.  He didn't mention the result, just a quote from our favorite racing movie, "Let It Ride" - but the quote was from a part of the movie where they had WON the bet.  That's odd.  As I arrived in the garage at my car I quickly pulled up the chart of the race....I must have clicked on the wrong replay because Full Salute was the winner.  And oh my, at a HUGE 3/1 price!  WOW.  As I put my phone away and got in the car to drive home it clicked in my head that the winning margin I think it said was a nose.  That must have been thrilling.  So when I got home I was able to watch the replay - WHAT A FINISH!  Lopez had the lead into the turn but then not one but two rivals came to him.  They passed him, but he fought back, and then up the rail came a fourth horse with all the momentum.  Two jumps from the wire I was beaten, but a final surge and it was a FOUR-HORSE PHOTO FINISH!  Luckily for me I already knew the result.....

The "prime time" investment coupled with the GIGANTIC $8 payoff meant I'd be collecting $80 on this race alone.  For the day I was 3-for-5 and had won $75!  I found it ironic that over the Preakness WEEKEND I'd won $65 on twenty-five races, but today, just playing Monmouth, with NO STAKES races, I'd won more money.  That's one of the many great things about this racing game, you never know.  Later in the evening Jeff called so we could share our good fortune :)  Good times on the Jersey Shore this weekend my friends!

Monmouth Park Highlights

Preakness Weekend:  May 21-22

May 21 - Preakness Day

Preakness Saturday

At the end of the day I was very happy with the way the day's handicapping and racing turned out, and it was a wonderful weekend on every level.  The ONLY thing that was not perfect was that I didn't come close to what has been a "normal" Preakness Saturday where I had twenty or more wins, but then I wasn't at the races and only played one track (primarily) so that could not have happened regardless of how spot on my handicapping was.  The rains came down in Maryland starting last night and it made for an off main track, but kudos to the Pimlico officials for keeping all but the 14th race on the grass.  The first race went to the post at an early 10:30 am (gates had opened at 8:30 am!) and we were under way.  I thought that Double Whammy looked strong in the opener, a starter allowance as he exited allowances races in a spot restricted to those who'd started for $5K.  He'd be chasing the white hot Golden Rings who was the speed, but was cheap speed.  He came running but Golden Rings held on for second while a closer nipped my pick for second.  In the third Good Luck Gus was the prohibitive 1/5 choice, and my top pick.  He was a multiple state-bred stakes winner and again he'd have a lone speed to chase - flying and wide, but too far back, a close second.  The fifth was the first of the stakes races, this one being the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap.  In my initial handicapping I thought that the program favorite at even money, multiple graded stakes winner Salutos Amigos looked vulnerable.  But he was easily the class of the field and he looked like he'd get plenty of pace to run at.  Still, I was wavering.  But when the weather forecast came out it sealed the deal......Salutos Amigos was a PERFECT 7-FOR-7 on the off going.  Class and loves the mud, duh.  I was surprised and delighted that the crowd let him go off at 6/5, and I was surprised at how far back he was, but I'd seen this guy run down loose on the lead speed before when seemingly hopelessly beaten.  So as they turned for home I knew he was about to kick it into overdrive.......fifth of six under the wire to the 8/5 second choice.  Not good when you have a guy who's perfect at the conditions and you don't win!  As part of my summer handicapping project where I handicap every live racing card from Monmouth I was playing their races today in addition to Pimlico.  Their second race featured a nw3L claiming event where Scotland Bay had been claimed two back by Jorge Navarro who has been on fire to start the meet.  She dropped into this 3L race for a $12.5K tag after having run WON an OPEN $16K spot first off the claim.  Obvious choice - rated to the turn and blew by to win going away.  Back to Maryland for their 7th where your opinion of the race went strictly through what you thought of Chief Istan.  He was a perfect 2-for-2 who was a front runner on the rail.  But his most recent win at Keeneland had come in April.....of last year!  Trainer Larry Jones is 30% off the long break and he'd put two bullet works into the Chief.  There was other speed to the outside so Chief Istan sat off the pace into the stretch, opened up and held off the late charge of a closer to be a clear winner and my first score at Pimlico today!  Next up was THE race of the day and the weekend.  This would decide not only how the bottom line for the day would go but for the entire weekend.  It was the Very One Stakes going five furlongs on the turf in the 8th at Pimlico.  It was not any kind of handicapping magic, as CLEARLY Lady Shipman was the one to beat.  She was one of the best turf sprinters in the country facing listed opposition.  The question to me was how much to invest?  Knowing she'd be odds on, was I ready to risk the entire weekend's winnings chasing a small profit?  I went back and forth beginning yesterday after Ben's Cat's win about the wager.  I had settled on $50 because that would be a BIG TIME play and show of confidence, but if there was an unlikely loss, especially over the off going - AND she'd drawn post 12 - then it wouldn't completely wipe out the winnings or the Xpressbet account.  But about fifteen minutes before post time as I went to make the bet, I re-examined my selection sheet and what I'd written jumped off the page - "....of the 212 combined races run by the eleven other fillies and mares, NONE of them had ever earned a triple Beyer speed figure; but contrast Lady Shipman came in here with SEVEN CONSECUTIVE TRIPLE BEYERS!  She's an EIGHT-time stakes winner who was 2nd as a 3yo filly against older males in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint......"  It was time to pull the trigger and I unloaded - $100 to WIN!  She broke sharply and was quickly headed to the front, but two to her inside took advantage of their inside position to get to the front.  No worries as she's stalked speed before and she comfortably tracked the emerging leader into the turn.  BUt when they hit the top of the stretch she opened up and ran away under a hand ride!  WHOOO HOOO!  

I would have loved to have cashed for the 3/5 price she'd been as they loaded into the gate, but I still was celebrating in front of my Mom, sister and niece in my Mom's living room as the victory brought me a profit of $40.  All is right with the handicapping world for the remainder of the day.  Love to be right and put my money where my confidence is!  Less than a minute later they were off in the 5th at Monmouth where that race was my "best" of the day.  It was a maiden claiming event and I liked Social Stranger, again from the Jorge Navarro barn.  Third off the layoff but exiting a race where both the second and third place winners came back to score.  Looked easily best.  Right to the front and was never, ever threatened.  Normally the triple investment winner would be cause for celebration, but with the $100 winning wager on Lady Shipman I was simply pleased to get my fourth victory of the day.  I passed on the Chick Lang Stakes for 3yo sprinters but my top choice won, sigh....but I cashed for my third straight winner on the Monmouth card when Paco Lopez gave Awesome Speed a brilliant ride.  He sat off the speed about two back and waited to the top of the lane.  Those two floated four paths off the rail, he hit the accelerator and was gone.  It was the "big price" winner of the day at Monmouth, paying $4.60, so I collected nearly $23.  In the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimilico I liked Tiger Ride who was the 9/5 favorite.  I was encouraged when NBC's Eddie Olychuk made her his "Bet of the Day."  She had a rough trip into the stretch but when she was clear with a chance to get the win she ran evenly to the wire, 8th.  Glad I was only in for the minimum.  In the 8th at Monmouth I went against the favorite who I'd seen win many times over the winter at Gulfstream, but she was a front-running fool that might face pressure.  I went with Paco Lopez for Todd Pletcher and Chip It was a good second at a good 3/1 price, behind the top one who was simply too fast.  While waiting for that race to go off the NBC broadcast team had trainer Bob Baffert on the set and part of the conversation was about the upcoming Sir Barton Stakes for 3yo colts.  They asked him about his entry, American Freedom, who he had made no secret about two weeks ago to tell everyone that the colt was his best three-year-old in the barn.  But after being bet down from 8/1 to 6/5 he ran sixth.  Baffert explained that he felt bad because so many people had invested heavily, and he said he felt "pressure" because he begged the owners to let him run him back today.  So, the analysts said, will he pay off today?  Baffert replied he was confident and that "....we'll get everyone their money back today....."  I had already made him my top choice and he was the crowd's pick as well.  He went right to the front but a long shot was running with him and would not go away.  As soon as he disposed of that one a stalker came to him and pressured him into the stretch.  But as they turned for home he put his head in front and battled to the 16th pole then exerted his talent and edged clear!  NICE!  

He only paid $4.60 but I would cash for nearly $35!  In Monmouth's feather I went with Paco Lopez at a big 4/1 price and again went against the short-priced front runner.  That one wired the field and I was third.  The Grade 2 Dixie on the turf at Pimlico was wide open and I went with Prince Gagarin who'd won for me at a nice price at Keeneland last out.  He was a big 8/1 and made a huge move on the turn and I really thought I had it.  But as he hit the stretch he ran evenly without any closing kick.  Sixth.  Next up was the featured Preakness.  It's well documented that I have not believed in Nyquist and immediately after the Derby I had said I would gladly take a stand against him in the Preakness.  But after analyzing and handicapping the race he was just too much the best.  Not a great horse, but simply better than these.  The race set up perfectly for him with not one but FOUR who would want the lead and he could sit a perfect stalking trip, blow by on the turn and again hold off the late running Exaggerator.  So I broke my own rule and bet him.  The gates opened and immediately he was HUSTLED to get the lead.  What is he doing? I said out loud.  The opening quarter was :22 and change the half mile in :45 in change and he was dueling all the way.  WHAT is he doing?  Trying to be like American Pharoah from last year who just took it to the field.  I was thinking the entire time, you are no American Pharoah and sure enough as they turned for home Exaggerator had had the perfect wicked pace to close into and he blew by to hand Nyquist his first ever career loss as he was a solid third after being mis-handled.  Later trainer Doug O'Neill said they were so confident and thought he was so much the best that they "didn't want to get cute" and try to work out a trip.  Wow.  Glad I had re-evaluated my betting strategy because originally I was going to bet both Lady Shipman and Nyquist with $50 win tickets!  Instead it was $100 to win on Lady Shipman and only $20 here.  Five minutes after the Preakness I logged onto the NYRA website to collect on what I was very confident would be a winning selection in their featured Grade 3 Vagrancy.  Last time out Paulassilverlining had won the Grade 3 Distaff over Cavorting.  That one had come back to absolutely romp in the Grade 2 Ruffian last weekend.  AND Paula stood out over her rivals easily.  She rated behind three front runners, split horses into the stretch and ran away under a hand ride with my $25 winning ticket to be my SEVENTH winner on the day!  

For the day I cashed a sharp 7-for-15 on the day and was profitable.  I'll happily take that!  And for the weekend I ended up 11-for-25, over 40% and a profit of nearly $100.  A great weekend of racing; a great weekend with the family; and I got to enjoy temperatures in the 40s in the mornings and crisp 60 degree weather throughout the afternoons.  It was a perfect spring trip to Ohio!

Preakness Weekend Highlight Video

Preakness Fashion

May 20 - Black Eyed Susan Day

Black-Eyed Susan Day

It's Friday, it's Pimlico, it's Black-Eyed Susan Day, I'm in Ohio, and what a great day it was.  But it didn't start out that way and if you'd ask me about 3 pm today what I thought of the day I'd have had an entirely different opinion that I had by the time I went to bed!  Even though I knew that I would not be at the races today I still spent many hours analyzing each horse in all of the stakes races, runner by runner and then posted my analysis online.  I then went back through the card beginning with the first race and handicapped the 14-race card from top to bottom and wrote up a race analysis which included comments on at least three horses, regardless if I had a bet or not.  The point being I put A LOT of time into today - and let's be honest, I enjoy it :)  But at 3 pm I had yet to cash a ticket and had lost one of the two prime-time plays of the day.  It was not looking like a day at the races that would turn out to be memorable.  The opener was an allowance event that had a short-priced favorite, which I listed on top, but she'd backed up twice with a clear lead in the lane so I did not invest.  Good decision as my second choice came rolling out of the pack to blow by at better than 2/1.  In the second, another allowance sprint, but this one on the turf, I again couldn't put money on my top choice as there were FOURTEEN runners going a short five furlongs on the grass and they either didn't have any turf form or had been running in cheap claiming events.  Any slight misstep or bad judgement and your chances were ruined.  Another good decision as the very short priced favorite was no match for my third choice that paid $9 - my top pick was 7/1 and was sixth across the wire.  But I figured the wait was well worth it as the third race, the first of the many stakes events was the Skipat Stakes and I had a "prime time" play in Fantastic Style.  This filly had multiple reasons that led her to be the 1/2 favorite in the program and 1/5 at post time.  First of all she was a Bob Baffert filly with Javier Castellano on board.  Second in her last two starts she had run second in a Grade 2 a month ago and prior to that she WON the Grade 3 Las Flores Stakes.  Both of these were in So Cal.  Today she was in a listed $100K stakes.  You KNOW that there were many non-graded opportunities at home in California, so Baffert would not send his graded stakes winner across the country if he wasn't serious.  She had a pressing running style so the outside draw was ideal for this six furlong distance that she was a perfect 2-for-2 at.  AND there were multiple speeds to set up her finish.  But as they broke from the gate my second choice emerged with a clear lead.  Not to worry as she was being pressed along by the other front runners who weren't too far behind.  I was about three off the leader while still wide, so just mild concern through the opening quarter.  But as they hit the far turn the leader was clear by three and in complete control and Castellano was having to ask for run.  Not good.  Struggled home to be third, caught by a longshot closer near the wire.  WOW - not the way I'd seen today going.  Still, plenty of action to go, let's not panic.  In the fourth I liked Leafy Shades in a turf allowance.  Sent off at a fair 7/2 she was in good position midway down the backstretch when she got in traffic and shuffled back, but she recovered into good position heading into the turn, and more trouble, shuffled to near the back.  A late rally to be fourth was an indication that I might have had the winner if she'd had a trouble-free trip.  In the fifth I was certain I had the winner.  This was a nw2x allowance going 8 1/2 furlongs and my pick was the post time odds-on favorite Tale of Life.  Of the 156 combined races run by the rest of the field, three races were competitive with her last two Beyers of 92 and 96.  She looked easily best.  She broke from post nine and jockey Irad Ortiz was wide through the first turn - I'm not that worried I'm clearly on the best horse.  Wide down the backstretch and well back in the field.  I'm concerned.  At least four wide through the far turn I'm moving, but wide into the lane I've run out of momentum and she finishes a well beaten third while one of the only three fillies with competitive figures, and my second choice, is the clear winner paying $8.80.  The 7th was the Grade 3 Pimlico Special and I thought Todd Pletcher's Stanford, coming off a wire win in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic was the wire-to-wire winner.  He'd have to hold off local hero Page McKenny who was second in this race last year and second to Stanford in the CT Classic.  But both scratched!  The favorite was Noble Bird who had been the favorite on the Oaks undercard in the Grade 2 Alysheba, and granted he'd had a troubled start but he ran AWFUL that day.  Jeff texted me who did I like now and I told him no one but that I certainly would NOT want Noble Bird, especially at 4/5.  Of course, you know the story, he won!  And did it wire to wire as tons the best.  Sigh......Coming up next was the Jim McKay Turf Sprint and this was my BET of the Day on veteran Ben's Cat.  He is one of my most favorite horses and as a ten-year-old he's won an amazing 31 races and THIS STAKES the last four years running, and five of the last six years.  I'd had him at a fair 2/1 price in his seasonal debut when he ran down a loose-on-the-lead speedster but today he looked to have multiple speeds to set up his big finishing kick.  I knew he'd be the post time favorite and as an off-the-pace runner in a turf sprint that could be a problem.  The inside draw (post 2) meant top Maryland jockey Trevor McCarthy would need to negotiate a good trip with little room for error, but still I was confident.  The one that would take some support was Rocket Heat who was the second choice in the program.  This guy is REALLY fast and two weeks ago in the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint it had looked like he'd be one of several speed types, but he'd been so quick that he was easily clear and coasted wire to wire earning a big 105 speed figure.  I was hoping that would boost Ben's price.  But I was sure that (a) this figure was so much higher than he'd ever run, (b) he was coming back in a short two weeks off a new career high and (c) there were multiple other front runners.  All of this indicated that he'd almost certainly "bounce" off that figure AND be a perfect set-up for Ben's Cat.  But as the betting progressed Rocket Heat was being pounded in the wagering and Ben's Cat was floating at 2/1.  WOW - if I'm right I'm going to get a nice payoff!  But the way today is going, I'm a little anxious.  As they got into the gate Rocket Heat is a prohibitive 4/5.  The gates open and the worst of all scenarios.....Rocket Heat is ALL ALONE on the front end and coasting.  Oh no.  They turn for home and Ben's Cat has been mid-pack but with tons of work to do.  But at the furlong pole he's kicked into another gear and is closing the gap.  Still, it's going to be too late.  And then, as jockey Trevor McCarthy was quoted afterwards, it was as if the veteran war horse said, "Hang on Trevor, here we go!" and he kicked it into a whole different gear and burst between horses, blew by Rocket Heat in the final 100 yards and held off another closer to WIN!  

And the best part was the crowd had let him float up to 5/2!  The $7 payoff and my big investment meant I'd be cashing for close to $90 and just like that it's a wonderful day!  I sooooo enjoyed that the broadcasters on NBCSports and online were just giddy with excitement over the remarkable race, and I'd had it!  At a price.  Jeff texted that he'd been in the parking lot of a high school on the recruiting trail and had watched and bet $20 to win "good pick!" he said.  My buddy Jim Anderson texted he was watching and betting today and when he read my analysis he'd upped the bet - "good pick."  Ahhh, you gotta love the races!  I told my Mom that when I'd been at Pimlico last spring and he'd won this race with another remarkable finish it had been one of my all-time racing highlights, and that if I'd been there today it would have nearly as remarkable.  Amazing.  

The next race was the Grade 3 DuPont Distaff - I'd won this race last spring with Stopchargingmaria, but this edition looked wide open to me.  The program favorite was Todd Pletcher's Mei Ling and she certainly was capable, but I couldn't forget or forgive when she'd been tons the best on paper earlier this winter when shipped to Maryland for a stakes race and failed to fire.  She'd come back to run two big races in NY, but back in Maryland today at a short price, not for me.  I instead went with Ahh Chocolate.  I thought she had excuses in her latest and if she ran back to her winning effort in the Grade 2 Falls City last year at Churchill Downs where she would be a pace presser and take over into the turn, she could be a handy winner.  Man, am I psychic or what!  She pressed the leader into the far turn and ran away while Mei Ling was never a factor!

And the nice 7/2 price allowed me to cash for well over $20 on my second consecutive winner!  After I'd completed my handicapping analysis on Wednesday I saw online that the talented filly sprinter, Promise Me Silver was making her 2016 debut this afternoon at Louisiana Downs.  I read online that trainer Brett Calhoun said she'd been training lights out and he'd been looking for over a month for a spot to run her instead of going into Churchill Downs' Winning Colors Stakes off a long layoff, but he thought she was ready enough to do that.  So when she was in this allowance spot I KNEW she was a certain winner.  I wouldn't make a lot of money, but it was a nice "pad the stats" pick.  She was a minuscule 1/9 through nearly the entire wagering and then floated up to 1/5, then remarkably 2/5.  But as they loaded she was back down to 1/5.  More than fair I thought.  She pressed the leader and got outside of traffic quickly from her rail draw.  As they turned for home she was asked to run and she blew the race wide open.

And as a nice reward she'd floated back up to 2/5 at post time allowing me to cash for nearly $30 on my THIRD consecutive winning selection!  The Hilltop Stakes for 3yo fillies was next going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  Miss Katie Mae was my pick at 7/2 and she rallied to near the front turning for home, but was outfinished - fourth.  The last race of the NBCSports telecast and the final stakes of the afternoon was the featured Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan.  Nearly always the "best" fillies don't come back two weeks after the $1 Million Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks because there is no "Triple Crown" for fillies.  But today in the full field of fourteen the top two choices in the program WERE returning from two weeks ago.  That was the first issue to me - the short rest, are they up for it?  And what about their excuses in the Oaks?  The program favorite was Land Over Sea who had run second in the Oaks as my top choice.  I'd liked her in what I had thought was a wide-open Oaks because she'd run second twice and third once to champion Songbird, and when taken out of So Cal to avoid Songbird she'd easily won the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks.  But in the Kentucky Oaks she was a non-threatening second.  Maybe she's just always content to be close without winning.  The other filly coming back was Go Maggie Go who I'd seen win the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.  That day she won the filly feature in just her second career start!  Then in the Kentucky Oaks she was shuffled back at the start forcing her to come from well off-the-pace, NOT her running style, AND as they turned for home she was in a pack of horses that floated her SEVEN wide and still she was flying at the finish to come home fourth.  Considering that was only her third career start, the first time she'd shipped out of So Fla, had trouble both at the beginning and the stretch, was taken out of her element, and still was flying late......I thought she had a TON of upside.  Her trainer Dale Romans appeared from what I read to be very confident.  I tripled the bet on her and expected a clean break and then to stalk the leader until the turn and open up.  She broke cleanly but heading into the first turn instead of letting another "need to lead" filly take over she was dueling on the lead.  Oh no, don't do this!  As they turned down the backside the two continued to battle, but then the NBC broadcast switched to a head-on, close up view and I could see that jockey Luis Saez was sitting chilly and 'Maggie was easily well within herself.  Oh my, I've got a TON of horse!  I started to get excited before they even hit the far turn.  Sure enough she edged clear to the front through the turn and when heads turned for home she was L-O-N-G gone!  I had tripled the bet on my top choice in the feature and her pay-off of $5.60 meant I'd be cashing for over $40 on my fourth winning selection of the day.  For the day I finished with four wins from ten picks and a profit of nearly $70!  Shortly after the race we left for the drive out to West Jefferson to meet my brother and his family for dinner at Ann & Tony's restaurant which has been in town since I was a little toddler.  Both of my brother's sons were home for the weekend so it was a big reunion and we literally closed down the restaurant!  What a G-R-E-A-T day!

May 18

Night Time Racing Returns!

I handicapped the card at Woodbine to play the night races, something I found that I enjoyed quite a bit last summer during my Woodbine Handicapping Project.  Tonight also marked the first turf race of the long season in Toronto as well.  For the evening I had five selections from the eight races.  I got off to an excellent start when Neshama went off as the co-favored runner in a short field of four.  Seemed to me an obvious choice on two angles - first she'd broken her maiden at this 8 1/2 furlong distance in her second start after debuting at seven furlongs when her speed figure improved some 23 points and tonight she makes her second start off a layoff after trying......yes, seven furlongs last time out!  Secondly, that last race was a career best 80, and anytime a newly turned 3yo tops their 2yo best figure in their first start as a sophomore that's a great sign.  I was worried after one horse scratched and the other filly - who had been the favorite through most of the betting - set sail on an easy lead through soft fractions of :25 & :50.  I was wondering what top rider Eurico DaSilva was doing letting her coast along like that, but when he made his move on the turn it didn't take long for him to collar the leader and take over heading for home.  Then, just as I'd written in my analysis, the one to watch for did indeed come running, but was too late to catch my top choice, the winner! 

I was more than satisfied to get $4.40 ($22 payout) considering I thought my pick was obvious and it was a mere four-horse field.  In the third, the first turf race I had the 4/5 favorite Conquest Dynasty with DaSilva again.  Stalked the leader, moved to the front for trainer Mark Casse and was clear into the lane, but was caught late by my second choice who paid $17.  Ouch.  Fourth to Jim Bannon's top choice in the 4th, that winner was even money and turned out to be the lone speed.  Then in the sixth it was my BEST BET, as well as Bannon's Best.  The race was a non-winners of three lifetime and when you handicap those the first thing you typically do is toss every runner that has already lost at this level and look for someone who has never seen 3L company.  But this is the one great rule about handicapping, there are no rules!  The two inside runners had lost multiple times at this price; the three outside runners had lost multiple times for a LESSER price in 3L company.  That alone made Dancing Fire who had faced 3L ALLOWANCE company the class play.  But best of all she was the LONE speed of the race.  That was an even bigger edge considering tonight's race was at the abbreviated five furlong distance.  Looked to go right to the front and kiss this field good-bye.  But when the gates opened the other five left her standing there.  Oh no!  But DaSilva hit the accelerator and she blew by them quickly to get to the front.  I could only hope she hadn't wasted all her energy making the lead.  But into the turn she was coasting on an open length lead and the field never made a dent in her cushion, easy-peasy-pie! 

My prime time play netted me over $35.  In the finale I was the 4/1 third choice, was ready to roll into the turn but was behind a wall of horses.  Looked to split horses but was blocked and didn't get running room until inside the final 16th and that was in tight along the rail.  Not saying I'd have won for sure, but I certainly would have had a better shot if my pick had had a chance to run when she was ready.  Third.  Very satisfied with a 40% winning night and hitting my best however.

Sunday May 16

Day 2 At Monmouth

I had five selections on the Sunday card, and late Saturday Jeff texted if he should up the bet on the last bet of the day at Santa Anita.  I told him to save his money because on Sunday I had a "BET of the Day" at Monmouth.  My top pick won the opener, but I didn't trust this lone speed around two turns.  The first bet, in the second was as bad a maiden claiming event as you could get.  BUT, Twofour Six Oh One was the O-N-L-Y one in the field who had EVER shown early speed.  He got to the front and coasted home as the 8/5 favorite.  In the second I doubled the bet on a Paco Lopez runner and he eased to the front but was immediately confronted by the second choice.  The two put on as good a stretch duel as you'd find in a Breeders' Cup race before hitting the line nearly simultaneously.  I had a bad feeling and the photo confirmed it.  Wrong bob on the wire, second.  Came back to win with Lopez on a double investment runner, Bodacious Babe in the fourth.  Then in the 7th was the BET of the Day with Roll Tide Roll for Todd Pletcher with Lopez up.  A miniature 3/5 price IN THE PROGRAM meant we wouldn't get anything, but a win is a win.  Jeff called to talk about the race and I told him I'd seen this guy run before.  He'd sit off the leaders, swoop by on the turn and run away.  The gates opened and he went to the front!  What!!!!  But then he appeared to ease back, but instead when two price plays came up inside he dueled with them!  Cleared into the lane and looked easily best, but then the second choice came to him and shades of the second race they laid it down to the wire......PHOTO finish again!  And again I was second.  Sigh......  In the final play of the day I ran 5th at 11/1 when I decided to go against Paco Lopez on the favorite in the feature - you can guess how that turned out!  Back to the Jersey Shore on Saturday!

Opening Day At Monmouth Park

May 14th

Today marks the start of the Monmouth Park Racing Season and I've decided to handicap each card through it's closing this fall, unless I'm traveling.  There were also graded features at Belmont and with those two tracks I analyzed seven others to have nearly forty races on my selection sheet as I headed out to Gulfstream and the Silks Simulcast Center.  As I went through the various races I could tell that today would result in a big profit or some disappointment as I thought there were legitimate chances to beat the favorite in many of the races AND I had a "prime time / BEST of the Day" bet and nearly every track.  The results were mixed.....of the six best bets I hit a sharp 67% of them; but through the rest of the day the pickings were slim as the favorites I found vulnerable won most of the big races and I was close without winning in most others.  I was slightly under my usual 30% plus for the day and lost money.  But I have to say I enjoyed the day and nearly every winner had a great story.  So I'll focus on those stories and you can check out the results page if you want to see the losers on the day!  I thought it was oh-so-fitting that the first win of the day would come in the opener at Monmouth Park.....and that it would be the favorite with "money in the bank" Paco Lopez on board.  It was a non-winners of 3-lifetime sprint and Brother Bobo was being trained by Kelly Breen, who teams with Lopez to win 30% of the time.  I was a little leery that his last race was a win against 2-lifetime and he was moving up to the next level today, typically not a winning angle.  But, it was Lopez at Monmouth and even more importantly there weren't any legitimate favorites to beat here.  Bobo broke sharply, but was taken back to sit the perfect garden trip off the speed.  As they swung out of the turn Lopez had three lengths to make up but he had all the momentum and wore down the leaders in deep stretch to edge clear in the final fifty yards.  I only had the minimum and he was an even-money shot, so my first win resulted in a little over $10 in returned funds.  The weather forecast earlier in the week when I began my handicapping called for a good chance of rain today locally so I'd been pretty concerned about spending time on the turf races.  I found three races I liked locally, one was a "turf only" if they stayed on the grass.  The first of those came in the opener a 5 1/2 furlong sprint for 2-lifetime runners.  El Gran Gayego seemed to be one of those "either he's way the best or he's an obvious play-against" runner.  It took him nine starts to break his maiden and had run second three consecutive times at this $6,250 2L level.  But he was claimed by a barn that wins with 22% of those at a huge $6.49 ROI and today's rider was a 32% winner for this outfit.  He burst from the gate and was quickly open lengths clear.  They never got within two lengths of him and he was never asked for his best.  Unfortunately he was pounded in the final minutes of the betting all the way down to 2/5 post time odds and so my double investment was netting me less than $15. 

It took me over an hour to find the winner's circle again, this time at Belmont Park in a Maiden Special event.  The key to the race was the configuration that the immense Belmont Park track uses for it's mile and a sixteenth races.  Those are ONE-turn events.  My pick was Doctor Mounty.  He had debuted on Fountain of Youth Day when he faced Todd Pletcher's talented Mo Power.  That guy was my co-BET of the Day and I had $50 to win on him,  He moved strongly on the turn and I thought he'd run away but he had to fight to win and eventually drew clear from.......Doctor Mounty!  That race was a ONE-turn mile.  'Mounty came back in his second start as the favorite going nine furlongs at Aqueduct around TWO turns.  So I thought if he ran back to the way he had run at Gulfstream going a one-turn route he'd be tough to beat.  The crowd sent him off at 6/5 and he glided to the front on the turn and drew off in hand, winning by open lengths!  I had tripled the bet so I would be cashing for nearly $35! 

Right back with my BEST of the Day at Pimlico.  This was a Maiden Claiming event going an even mile on the grass.  Let me step back for just a second to make this observation, which I've noted many times in my racing journals......one of the great things about this game is that you never know where that "BEST" bet is going to be.  They pay just as much for a winner of the 4th at Pimlico in a maiden event as they do for a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Championship race if you have the winner.  It's always important to keep that in mind when visiting the races.  And today five of my six "best bets" were NOT in stakes events, but in the undercard races like this.  As I noted in my analysis, if this race were run to the numbers Bridge of Luck would win by daylight.  In his four career starts for trainer Michael Matz he'd earned Beyers of 64-69-70-65.  Of the fifty three races run by his rivals three were competitive with those and one of those efforts had been in 2014 with the other two coming a year ago in 2015!  NOTHING in all of 2016 matched the speed & class Bridge of Luck had shown this year!  AND all of those efforts were in Maiden Special events, and today he was dropping in for a tag.  Looked big time good to me.  But I was a little alarmed when I got Gabby Gaudet's analysis for the day - not only did she NOT pick Bridge of Luck, he wasn't even in her top three!  Uh oh.  And then when she hit a 13/1 selection early on the card I began to wonder if maybe I was missing something.  As they approached the far turn Bridge of Luck was near the back and now I was concerned.  But then the rider asked and he blew by all but the top two as he rounded the turn.  As they hit the top of the stretch in was in full flight for the wire and just kept right on going running to his numbers to win convincingly.  And I think perhaps many fans had followed Gabby's picks because Bridge of Luck should never have been 9/5 in this field, but he was and my "prime time investment" earned me nearly $60.  My next win came about 45 minutes later and it was again a "Best of the Day" and again in a maiden race.  This was the sixth at Churchill Downs going five and a half furlongs.  I probably would have picked this filly to win, but the decisiveness of the bet came because of my following of racing on a regular basis.  On Jenny Wiley Day at Keeneland several Saturday afternoons ago (ironically as I sat in this very seat, #92 in the Silks Simulcast Center) my BET of the Day that afternoon had been the featured Grade 1 Jenny Wiley from Keeneland.  But my second-best bet of the day came in a maiden sprint where my top pick was Kareena.  That filly was exiting a best-of-the-rest second behind a filly that was running later that day in a Grade 3 event and I thought Kareena looked ultra tough.  She won under wraps by half the length of the stretch to no one's surprise at a miniscule 1/5 price.  But right behind her finishing a best-of-the-rest second was Julerette.  Today she showed up here at this shorter distance.  It's always a concern will a horse take to the unique Churchill surface but Julerette had debuted here and was third in her debut behind a filly that should have won in allowance company last week on the Derby undercard.  Julerette dueled, while in hand, through the turn and when asked the question drew off with authority!  My SECOND prime-time victory in as many bets on the day! 

It was almost an hour before my next win, and again it was my "Best Bet," this time at Belmont.  Offering Plan would have been the choice simply because she was being sent out by Chad Brown with Javier Castellano on board; she would have been the top choice simply because her last two Beyers of 96 and 99 were better than any lifetime figures earned by today's rivals;  But she was coming off a layoff - and that turned out to be THE KEY; Brown had raced this filly three times previously off the bench (including her debut) and she'd WON ALL THREE!  She was 4/5 at post time and Castellano rode her patiently through the turn then swung wide to get clear run.  He appeared to have work to do but he still seemed confident.  Inside the final 16th he asked for her best, she surged, and was up in time!  WHOOOOO HOOOOO!

With the 4/5 odds I would be cashing for nearly $40!  Not nearly so long for my next win, less than twenty minutes before the feature at Churchill Downs, the Unbridled Sydney Stakes going five furlongs on the turf.  Wesley Ward had sent out Acapulco to race against the colts in a 4 1/2 furlong dirt sprint last spring at Keeneland.  She was the 3/5 favorite and led into the stretch before weakening to be third.  Off that effort he sent her to Royal Ascot, and put her in the Group 2 Queen Anne Stakes against NINETEEN other fillies.  And in spite of being first time turf, first time England, first time running on a straight away against nineteen rivals, she was the 2/1 favorite!  AND SHE WON!  Came right back in a Group 1 against the colts York and was the 8/5 favorite! She led with fifty yards to go before weakening to be best-of-the-rest second!  She had made her 2016 debut at Turfway on their synthetic main track and won an allowance sprint.  Today she was back on the grass and Ward had proclaimed publicly that her next start was the target, another Group event at Royal Ascot.  But he also said he thought she was ready "enough" to win here.  And indeed she was.  She broke a step slowly, but quickly recovered to duel with two others into the turn; one dropped out and two of them dueled through the turn.  Acapulco hit the after burners in the stretch and kissed the field GOOD BYE! 

I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for $30 on my 7th winner of the day.  Missed in two graded events at Belmont but got my first winner of the summer at Arlington in their 6th.  It was a non-winners of two lifetime going five and a half furlongs on the main track.  Carlientita looked to be the kind that most would play against, and I made the comment on my sheet that I wouldn't blame anyone for going another direction - she was exiting her maiden to face first time winners and there appeared to be other speed that would compromise her chances to take them gate to wire.  BUT, as I also noted, there is no one, and I mean NO ONE in Chicago and in my opinion all of North America who is a better front-end jockey than E.T. Baird.  Give him the front and you're in serious deep waters.  Sure enough, right to the front and in hand the entire way as the 4/5 favorite! 

I lost four consecutive stakes races when factors beyond normal handicapping worked against me.  In the Grade 3 Marine at Woodbine Riker was the 7/5 favorite and likely to wire the field, but was pressured from the start by a long shot into the far turn, by then he had nothing for the drive home.  In the Decathalon at Monmouth Paco Lopez had Seeking the Sherif pressing the longshot leader on the rail when that one came over and he had to stop, literally.  Went from second by 1/2 a length to the back some ten lengths out of it.  The fact that one went on to win and was DQ'd did me little good.  In the Grade 3 Beaugay on the turf at Belmont My Miss Sophia looked to be the lone speed and was bet down to 9/5 favoritism.  She was clear by five easy lengths by jockey Joel Rosario somehow could not relax her and she rattled off fractions of :23, :46.1, and 1:09 despite having no pressure.  Nothing left for the stretch - remarkable she held fourth.  In the Grade 2 Peter Pan I played against the favorite, unbeaten Unified who had never been two turns, much less nine furlongs.  But for the first time in his career he relaxed off the lead to the stretch and was able to

win. 

I got my final win of the day in the Singletary Stakes at Santa Anita where Arcature was my So Cal "Best Bet."  She'd won her debut and then was close in back-to-back stakes, the most recent behind a filly that just missed in a photo in a graded stakes on the CD Derby undercard.  She rated nicely to the turn, moved in hand to a clear lead to the furlong pole.  But when the closer came flying she was all out to hold on, but she did indeed, my ninth winner of the day and fourth "Best Bet" victory on my sheets.   I thought I might have one more good play in the finale at Gulfstream where I decided to bet Zatara in a maiden claiming event on the turf.  What caught my eye was Acacia Courtney, the new "filly" analyst/side-kick to grizzly veteran Ron Nicoletti....no, not the fact that she is ultra-hot, but on her "Pick Five" ticket she'd singled Zatara.  And as they were analyzing the horses in the paddock Courtney noted that she was indeed alive for the Pick Five with her single.  That's some good handicapping my friend, so I decided to tag along with this new handicapper.  I was on the rail as the horse was heading into the gate as the second choice at 5/2.  As he stood waiting for the rest of the field he acted up, tossed the rider and was scratched.  What was really awful was that Courtney - by the rules - was still holding a live ticket and would get the post-time favorite.  Who knows if that would have been her back-up, but that's who she got and that one finished a well-beaten 7th and non one won the pool.  Not right, felt badly for her.  This next week I pick up the handicapping as Woodbine launches their Wednesday night cards, so I'll be doing those on a regular basis, and next weekend is Preakness weekend with a big card Friday on Black-Eyed Susans Day.  I leave Tuesday morning at 6:30 am for Ohio and will be there until Sunday, but the racing continues thanks to the wonder of the Internet and my Xpressbet account!

May 14 Video Highlights