May 18

Night Time Racing Returns!

I handicapped the card at Woodbine to play the night races, something I found that I enjoyed quite a bit last summer during my Woodbine Handicapping Project.  Tonight also marked the first turf race of the long season in Toronto as well.  For the evening I had five selections from the eight races.  I got off to an excellent start when Neshama went off as the co-favored runner in a short field of four.  Seemed to me an obvious choice on two angles - first she'd broken her maiden at this 8 1/2 furlong distance in her second start after debuting at seven furlongs when her speed figure improved some 23 points and tonight she makes her second start off a layoff after trying......yes, seven furlongs last time out!  Secondly, that last race was a career best 80, and anytime a newly turned 3yo tops their 2yo best figure in their first start as a sophomore that's a great sign.  I was worried after one horse scratched and the other filly - who had been the favorite through most of the betting - set sail on an easy lead through soft fractions of :25 & :50.  I was wondering what top rider Eurico DaSilva was doing letting her coast along like that, but when he made his move on the turn it didn't take long for him to collar the leader and take over heading for home.  Then, just as I'd written in my analysis, the one to watch for did indeed come running, but was too late to catch my top choice, the winner! 

I was more than satisfied to get $4.40 ($22 payout) considering I thought my pick was obvious and it was a mere four-horse field.  In the third, the first turf race I had the 4/5 favorite Conquest Dynasty with DaSilva again.  Stalked the leader, moved to the front for trainer Mark Casse and was clear into the lane, but was caught late by my second choice who paid $17.  Ouch.  Fourth to Jim Bannon's top choice in the 4th, that winner was even money and turned out to be the lone speed.  Then in the sixth it was my BEST BET, as well as Bannon's Best.  The race was a non-winners of three lifetime and when you handicap those the first thing you typically do is toss every runner that has already lost at this level and look for someone who has never seen 3L company.  But this is the one great rule about handicapping, there are no rules!  The two inside runners had lost multiple times at this price; the three outside runners had lost multiple times for a LESSER price in 3L company.  That alone made Dancing Fire who had faced 3L ALLOWANCE company the class play.  But best of all she was the LONE speed of the race.  That was an even bigger edge considering tonight's race was at the abbreviated five furlong distance.  Looked to go right to the front and kiss this field good-bye.  But when the gates opened the other five left her standing there.  Oh no!  But DaSilva hit the accelerator and she blew by them quickly to get to the front.  I could only hope she hadn't wasted all her energy making the lead.  But into the turn she was coasting on an open length lead and the field never made a dent in her cushion, easy-peasy-pie! 

My prime time play netted me over $35.  In the finale I was the 4/1 third choice, was ready to roll into the turn but was behind a wall of horses.  Looked to split horses but was blocked and didn't get running room until inside the final 16th and that was in tight along the rail.  Not saying I'd have won for sure, but I certainly would have had a better shot if my pick had had a chance to run when she was ready.  Third.  Very satisfied with a 40% winning night and hitting my best however.