It's Friday, it's Pimlico, it's Black-Eyed Susan Day, I'm in Ohio, and what a great day it was. But it didn't start out that way and if you'd ask me about 3 pm today what I thought of the day I'd have had an entirely different opinion that I had by the time I went to bed! Even though I knew that I would not be at the races today I still spent many hours analyzing each horse in all of the stakes races, runner by runner and then posted my analysis online. I then went back through the card beginning with the first race and handicapped the 14-race card from top to bottom and wrote up a race analysis which included comments on at least three horses, regardless if I had a bet or not. The point being I put A LOT of time into today - and let's be honest, I enjoy it :) But at 3 pm I had yet to cash a ticket and had lost one of the two prime-time plays of the day. It was not looking like a day at the races that would turn out to be memorable. The opener was an allowance event that had a short-priced favorite, which I listed on top, but she'd backed up twice with a clear lead in the lane so I did not invest. Good decision as my second choice came rolling out of the pack to blow by at better than 2/1. In the second, another allowance sprint, but this one on the turf, I again couldn't put money on my top choice as there were FOURTEEN runners going a short five furlongs on the grass and they either didn't have any turf form or had been running in cheap claiming events. Any slight misstep or bad judgement and your chances were ruined. Another good decision as the very short priced favorite was no match for my third choice that paid $9 - my top pick was 7/1 and was sixth across the wire. But I figured the wait was well worth it as the third race, the first of the many stakes events was the Skipat Stakes and I had a "prime time" play in Fantastic Style. This filly had multiple reasons that led her to be the 1/2 favorite in the program and 1/5 at post time. First of all she was a Bob Baffert filly with Javier Castellano on board. Second in her last two starts she had run second in a Grade 2 a month ago and prior to that she WON the Grade 3 Las Flores Stakes. Both of these were in So Cal. Today she was in a listed $100K stakes. You KNOW that there were many non-graded opportunities at home in California, so Baffert would not send his graded stakes winner across the country if he wasn't serious. She had a pressing running style so the outside draw was ideal for this six furlong distance that she was a perfect 2-for-2 at. AND there were multiple speeds to set up her finish. But as they broke from the gate my second choice emerged with a clear lead. Not to worry as she was being pressed along by the other front runners who weren't too far behind. I was about three off the leader while still wide, so just mild concern through the opening quarter. But as they hit the far turn the leader was clear by three and in complete control and Castellano was having to ask for run. Not good. Struggled home to be third, caught by a longshot closer near the wire. WOW - not the way I'd seen today going. Still, plenty of action to go, let's not panic. In the fourth I liked Leafy Shades in a turf allowance. Sent off at a fair 7/2 she was in good position midway down the backstretch when she got in traffic and shuffled back, but she recovered into good position heading into the turn, and more trouble, shuffled to near the back. A late rally to be fourth was an indication that I might have had the winner if she'd had a trouble-free trip. In the fifth I was certain I had the winner. This was a nw2x allowance going 8 1/2 furlongs and my pick was the post time odds-on favorite Tale of Life. Of the 156 combined races run by the rest of the field, three races were competitive with her last two Beyers of 92 and 96. She looked easily best. She broke from post nine and jockey Irad Ortiz was wide through the first turn - I'm not that worried I'm clearly on the best horse. Wide down the backstretch and well back in the field. I'm concerned. At least four wide through the far turn I'm moving, but wide into the lane I've run out of momentum and she finishes a well beaten third while one of the only three fillies with competitive figures, and my second choice, is the clear winner paying $8.80. The 7th was the Grade 3 Pimlico Special and I thought Todd Pletcher's Stanford, coming off a wire win in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic was the wire-to-wire winner. He'd have to hold off local hero Page McKenny who was second in this race last year and second to Stanford in the CT Classic. But both scratched! The favorite was Noble Bird who had been the favorite on the Oaks undercard in the Grade 2 Alysheba, and granted he'd had a troubled start but he ran AWFUL that day. Jeff texted me who did I like now and I told him no one but that I certainly would NOT want Noble Bird, especially at 4/5. Of course, you know the story, he won! And did it wire to wire as tons the best. Sigh......Coming up next was the Jim McKay Turf Sprint and this was my BET of the Day on veteran Ben's Cat. He is one of my most favorite horses and as a ten-year-old he's won an amazing 31 races and THIS STAKES the last four years running, and five of the last six years. I'd had him at a fair 2/1 price in his seasonal debut when he ran down a loose-on-the-lead speedster but today he looked to have multiple speeds to set up his big finishing kick. I knew he'd be the post time favorite and as an off-the-pace runner in a turf sprint that could be a problem. The inside draw (post 2) meant top Maryland jockey Trevor McCarthy would need to negotiate a good trip with little room for error, but still I was confident. The one that would take some support was Rocket Heat who was the second choice in the program. This guy is REALLY fast and two weeks ago in the Grade 2 Twin Spires Turf Sprint it had looked like he'd be one of several speed types, but he'd been so quick that he was easily clear and coasted wire to wire earning a big 105 speed figure. I was hoping that would boost Ben's price. But I was sure that (a) this figure was so much higher than he'd ever run, (b) he was coming back in a short two weeks off a new career high and (c) there were multiple other front runners. All of this indicated that he'd almost certainly "bounce" off that figure AND be a perfect set-up for Ben's Cat. But as the betting progressed Rocket Heat was being pounded in the wagering and Ben's Cat was floating at 2/1. WOW - if I'm right I'm going to get a nice payoff! But the way today is going, I'm a little anxious. As they got into the gate Rocket Heat is a prohibitive 4/5. The gates open and the worst of all scenarios.....Rocket Heat is ALL ALONE on the front end and coasting. Oh no. They turn for home and Ben's Cat has been mid-pack but with tons of work to do. But at the furlong pole he's kicked into another gear and is closing the gap. Still, it's going to be too late. And then, as jockey Trevor McCarthy was quoted afterwards, it was as if the veteran war horse said, "Hang on Trevor, here we go!" and he kicked it into a whole different gear and burst between horses, blew by Rocket Heat in the final 100 yards and held off another closer to WIN!
And the best part was the crowd had let him float up to 5/2! The $7 payoff and my big investment meant I'd be cashing for close to $90 and just like that it's a wonderful day! I sooooo enjoyed that the broadcasters on NBCSports and online were just giddy with excitement over the remarkable race, and I'd had it! At a price. Jeff texted that he'd been in the parking lot of a high school on the recruiting trail and had watched and bet $20 to win "good pick!" he said. My buddy Jim Anderson texted he was watching and betting today and when he read my analysis he'd upped the bet - "good pick." Ahhh, you gotta love the races! I told my Mom that when I'd been at Pimlico last spring and he'd won this race with another remarkable finish it had been one of my all-time racing highlights, and that if I'd been there today it would have nearly as remarkable. Amazing.
The next race was the Grade 3 DuPont Distaff - I'd won this race last spring with Stopchargingmaria, but this edition looked wide open to me. The program favorite was Todd Pletcher's Mei Ling and she certainly was capable, but I couldn't forget or forgive when she'd been tons the best on paper earlier this winter when shipped to Maryland for a stakes race and failed to fire. She'd come back to run two big races in NY, but back in Maryland today at a short price, not for me. I instead went with Ahh Chocolate. I thought she had excuses in her latest and if she ran back to her winning effort in the Grade 2 Falls City last year at Churchill Downs where she would be a pace presser and take over into the turn, she could be a handy winner. Man, am I psychic or what! She pressed the leader into the far turn and ran away while Mei Ling was never a factor!
And the nice 7/2 price allowed me to cash for well over $20 on my second consecutive winner! After I'd completed my handicapping analysis on Wednesday I saw online that the talented filly sprinter, Promise Me Silver was making her 2016 debut this afternoon at Louisiana Downs. I read online that trainer Brett Calhoun said she'd been training lights out and he'd been looking for over a month for a spot to run her instead of going into Churchill Downs' Winning Colors Stakes off a long layoff, but he thought she was ready enough to do that. So when she was in this allowance spot I KNEW she was a certain winner. I wouldn't make a lot of money, but it was a nice "pad the stats" pick. She was a minuscule 1/9 through nearly the entire wagering and then floated up to 1/5, then remarkably 2/5. But as they loaded she was back down to 1/5. More than fair I thought. She pressed the leader and got outside of traffic quickly from her rail draw. As they turned for home she was asked to run and she blew the race wide open.
And as a nice reward she'd floated back up to 2/5 at post time allowing me to cash for nearly $30 on my THIRD consecutive winning selection! The Hilltop Stakes for 3yo fillies was next going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. Miss Katie Mae was my pick at 7/2 and she rallied to near the front turning for home, but was outfinished - fourth. The last race of the NBCSports telecast and the final stakes of the afternoon was the featured Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan. Nearly always the "best" fillies don't come back two weeks after the $1 Million Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks because there is no "Triple Crown" for fillies. But today in the full field of fourteen the top two choices in the program WERE returning from two weeks ago. That was the first issue to me - the short rest, are they up for it? And what about their excuses in the Oaks? The program favorite was Land Over Sea who had run second in the Oaks as my top choice. I'd liked her in what I had thought was a wide-open Oaks because she'd run second twice and third once to champion Songbird, and when taken out of So Cal to avoid Songbird she'd easily won the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. But in the Kentucky Oaks she was a non-threatening second. Maybe she's just always content to be close without winning. The other filly coming back was Go Maggie Go who I'd seen win the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. That day she won the filly feature in just her second career start! Then in the Kentucky Oaks she was shuffled back at the start forcing her to come from well off-the-pace, NOT her running style, AND as they turned for home she was in a pack of horses that floated her SEVEN wide and still she was flying at the finish to come home fourth. Considering that was only her third career start, the first time she'd shipped out of So Fla, had trouble both at the beginning and the stretch, was taken out of her element, and still was flying late......I thought she had a TON of upside. Her trainer Dale Romans appeared from what I read to be very confident. I tripled the bet on her and expected a clean break and then to stalk the leader until the turn and open up. She broke cleanly but heading into the first turn instead of letting another "need to lead" filly take over she was dueling on the lead. Oh no, don't do this! As they turned down the backside the two continued to battle, but then the NBC broadcast switched to a head-on, close up view and I could see that jockey Luis Saez was sitting chilly and 'Maggie was easily well within herself. Oh my, I've got a TON of horse! I started to get excited before they even hit the far turn. Sure enough she edged clear to the front through the turn and when heads turned for home she was L-O-N-G gone! I had tripled the bet on my top choice in the feature and her pay-off of $5.60 meant I'd be cashing for over $40 on my fourth winning selection of the day. For the day I finished with four wins from ten picks and a profit of nearly $70! Shortly after the race we left for the drive out to West Jefferson to meet my brother and his family for dinner at Ann & Tony's restaurant which has been in town since I was a little toddler. Both of my brother's sons were home for the weekend so it was a big reunion and we literally closed down the restaurant! What a G-R-E-A-T day!
And the nice 7/2 price allowed me to cash for well over $20 on my second consecutive winner! After I'd completed my handicapping analysis on Wednesday I saw online that the talented filly sprinter, Promise Me Silver was making her 2016 debut this afternoon at Louisiana Downs. I read online that trainer Brett Calhoun said she'd been training lights out and he'd been looking for over a month for a spot to run her instead of going into Churchill Downs' Winning Colors Stakes off a long layoff, but he thought she was ready enough to do that. So when she was in this allowance spot I KNEW she was a certain winner. I wouldn't make a lot of money, but it was a nice "pad the stats" pick. She was a minuscule 1/9 through nearly the entire wagering and then floated up to 1/5, then remarkably 2/5. But as they loaded she was back down to 1/5. More than fair I thought. She pressed the leader and got outside of traffic quickly from her rail draw. As they turned for home she was asked to run and she blew the race wide open.
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