Well, Keeneland has concluded it's Spring Meet but I decided that after having continued weekday racing there I would play Churchill Downs' Thursday card. It was made less enticing when rains swept in and took all the races off the turf and taking one of my top picks of the evening with it. But still on the eight race card I had three selections. As I've often said, half the battle of winning at the races is about not just picking the most likely winner but being able to decipher which selections provide enough of an edge to make an investment and which races are best left alone. In the opener I talked about three horses, who were three of the top betting choices at post time - my third choice won at 9/5, but I didn't think the horse looked good enough to bet; good decision to make it a "no bet" race. The second was scheduled for the turf and had one of my two "best" plays of the evening. When it came off I did have a back-up "Main Track Only" runner that looked good, but he too scratched. The ultimate winner was a $10 horse I had not considered at all - another wise choice to pass the race. In the 4th I went with K One Kobra in a cheap, $5K route race on the main track. He stalked the leaders at a generous 3/1, surged to the front turning for home but had no stretch punch - hung to finish fourth with my minimum play along for the ride. Passed both the 4th and 5th - my top choice in the 4th was the 6/5 favorite and was a well-beaten 2nd while my second choice won the 5th as the favorite. In the sixth it was a claiming event sprinting seven furlongs and I went with Austin's Argument who had been claimed three back by trainer Steve Asmussen for owner Steve Asmussen. That always catches my eye. Led all the way into the stretch while being hounded the entire way before weakening to be fourth. I had watched the first three races live and then sat down with Kim to watch television and have dinner. We took a break at about 7:45 and when I logged online to watch the replays I saw that it was one minute to post for the eighth. I quickly watched Austin's Argument fade in the stretch and flipped to the live feed. They were hitting the far turn with my top choice, and "best" of the evening Conquest Curlgirl pressing the leader on the outside. Trainer Mark Casse has been having great success going all the way back to last fall's Keeneland Breeders' Cup Meet and I learned last summer how effective he is with all Conquest Stable runners. Those two things played into my selection. Looking at the form it appeared that if she ran back to her best races she would be a daylight winner. She'd been talented enough to run third in the Summertime Oaks at Santa Anita behind multiple Grade 1 winner Stellar wind last summer and then this spring she'd earned pretty good figures in her first two starts as a 4yo at Oaklawn. The question was the layoff since February. But her best-of-65 bullet work in a sizzling :59.1 on April 23rd over the Churchill main track told me she was on her "A" game for this one. As heads turned for home Julian Leparoux let her out a notch and she burst to the front. She was well in hand through the final 16th and was a daylight winner as I'd thought. For the evening, a solid 33% and a clear profit. Gotta love the races!
Friday the 13th
Today I handicapped the Woodbine races and only had a single winner, but that was a nice longshot that nearly paid for the entire day. In the opener Estradas Girl was the "Lock of the Day" for both of the racing analysts from Woodbine and my top selection. She was off slowly and offered little in the lane to be a well-beaten fifth. Runaway Pepper ran belatedly to be fourth at 7/2 in the second. In the fifth Wilburns Light was 30/1 in the DRF morning line, bet down to 7/1 but ran like a 30/1 when trailing throughout, 11th. In the sixth Klassy Delight was 20/1 but I thought she'd be well bet and was, 7/2. A good third when sitting the dream trip into the stretch but had no late kick. In the seventh there was an odds-on favorite who wasn't even in my top three because I thought there would be multiple speed types to negate his advantage. But the best early speed rival scratched and another speedster scratched as well. I considered changing my play but didn't as I thought he still would get a less than ideal trip. I went with Great Start who was dropping in class and looked to get the perfect stalking trip behind the speed. He was 4/1 in the program and left the gate at 4/1. The race unfolded just like I expected and Great Start blew by to win going away!
The $10.90 payoff generated a return of $54.50! In the 8th Cummings Road got a perfect set-up but was wide throughout and the trip cost him as he was a closing very close second. Earlier in the day I had checked out who Jim Bannon listed as his best of the day, he's usually spot-on with those. And I was surprised he'd picked a runner in the cheap claiming finale. So after Cummings Road lost I considered betting that one out of respect to Bannon. I looked at the odds and two horses were getting equal play, hmmmm, apparently the crowd is not down with Bannon's analysis. I checked back later and his top choice won easily and paid a generous $6.60 - would have loved the $30+ payout but I didn't have the faith :(
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