Saturday May 7 - Kentucky Derby Day
It's the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby today and with it a huge card of stakes races were on tap. I know that on Derby Day there are several people who read through my selections looking for a Derby bet, so today at the top of my selection sheet I tried to steer any "followers" towards the better bet of the day with this introduction....."It's Derby Day! The best piece of advice I can give those of you looking over my selections is that while it's great to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby, it's only one of fourteen races on the card today. If you are at a Derby party or in a Derby pool, then sure, focus on finding a winner in the wide-open 142nd running of the Derby. But if you are going to bet the races, then consider where you have the best chance to win and bet accordingly!" I posted analysis of all fourteen races and had selections in twelve of them. Again, like yesterday I strongly considered handicapping other tracks, but also like yesterday determined to stick with just Churchill Downs. This was made easier when Kim and I agreed to follow our recent tradition of heading out to Gulfstream for the early races, having lunch, and then coming home to watch the big stakes action including the Derby itself. So here's how my day played out.......
I bet the opener with my Xpressbet account as first post was again 10:30 am, and we wanted to be at the track by 11 am. But as it turned out we were both ready early and left and as we walked in the field was approaching the gate for the opener. I rallied from mid-pack to finish third as the 9/5 favorite. In the second race trainer Mark Casse sent out an entry, but jockey Julian Leparoux was named on both. Street Gray had started his career in four straight KEY races and won his last at Keeneland, he was the bet if that was the half that was in today. But as they went to post BOTH halves were in. That was odd I thought. As they broke from the gate Street Sense went right to the front and was cruising alone on the lead and I was thinking how I'd cash at a nice 2/1 price. But as they approached the far turn his stablemate came up with a rush and the two of them dueled into the stretch. An upset winner blew by them and the entry finished 2-3. Immediately my phone rang and it was Jeff who said, "What kind of entry runs like that? The 1a killed off the chances of the 1 - isn't the goal to win for the common owner!" Indeed, a most unusual race and I'm sure that the rider heard from the trainer about that. As I told Jeff, an uncoupled entry, for different owners with the same trainer, ok, I get it that both want to win....but here THE owner lost out on the first place prize despite having two runners. No time to worry about that as immediately in the third I had a pick. Jazzy Times was a $400K sales grad debuting for trainer Bob Baffert. As I mentioned in yesterday's journal, any Baffert sprinter is a strong play and again like yesterday, Javier Castellano was up. He pressed the pace and drew with ease in an impressive performance. I think Jazzy Times has a stakes future ahead of him. I did not have plays in either the 4th or the 5th so Kim and I went across from the paddock to our favorite restaurant, The Yardhouse, for lunch.
As Kim finished her lunch I went back inside the simulcast center to make all my wagers for the remainder of the day. The sixth race was next and it was not only the first of the stakes races, but it was my BET of the Day, the Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Mile on the turf. The star attraction was Tepin. If you follow my racing adventures you should know the story of how she was the horse I'd told my buddy to toss from his trifecta ticket at the Breeders' Cup and has since come back to win three straight in dominating fashion as my best each time. My concern today was how much to bet because she was certain to be a very, very short price and unlike every other race I'd bet her, today she did have a couple of obstacles to overcome. Tepin is probably the best turf filly/mare in the world. But today she drew the rail, and as the two NBS analysts pointed out, the only two races she's lost in the last year and a half came from the rail. Maybe a coincidence. But more importantly was how the race shape would play out. In her two back win at Tampa she'd faced Isabella Sings who had been EIGHTEEN lengths in front as they hit the far turn before Tepin mowed her down, confidently, but narrowly. Today she would face that speedster again but the distance was shorter, only a mile today. I could see Isabella Sings getting out to a big lead, under a more controlled pace and then having another rider pin Tepin in on the rail and force the upset. But the more I looked at it I was certain that she was simply too good for these no matter what happened. As they left the gate sure enough, Isabella Sings was loose on the lead and a longshot was alongside Tepin keeping her on the rail. As they turned down the backside I thought to myself that Tepin was simply too good for the horse pinning her in and I had a good shot. As they hit the turn Tepin eased outside of Isabella Sings and blew by without ever being asked. She opened up and it was all over. ULTRA impressive, again! It's off to England and Royal Ascot next for that gal!
I had won with my best and regardless of how the rest of the day went I was content in cashing my $100 win ticket. As I told Kim on the ride home, as we left after she'd filmed my celebratory video, it wasn't about making money with her, it was about being right. But with a bet of that amount, a loss there would have sealed a losing day regardless of the rest of the race outcomes. I also had a little something up my sleeve regarding this bet! More on that if things play out tomorrow! Check out the journal for the Sunday racing adventure tomorrow! Especially with the races being SOOOO spaced out it was a long afternoon. Tepin's race was at 1:13 pm. The next race, the 7th was the Grade 2 Churchill Downs at seven furlongs with a 1:55 post. My pick Calculator came flying with a big rally, but couldn't catch the winner, 2nd at 6/1. The Grade 1 Humana Distaff, also at 7 panels, went to post as the 8th at 2:45 pm. Enchanting Lady had every chance with a strong bid into the lane, but just wasn't good enough - third, again at 6/1. I really thought Airoforce had the best chance to win in the Grade 2 American Turf (9th race) when they went to the post at 3:35 pm, but instead of tracking the pace he dueled on the front all the way into the stretch before weakening to be 4th at 3/1. The 10th was a disappointment as Bob Baffert's American Freedom disappointed at 6/5 when fading to 7th. The word was out that Baffert considered this last out debut maiden winner his top three year old, period. Post time for that race had been at 4:25. At about 5 pm torrential rains opened up in Louisville that were reminiscent of last year's Preakness. It was too bad with everyone all dressed up and it came just as the performers began singing the National Anthem. The wind was howling at probably close to 40 mph and the rain was a so intense that one camera shot from in the grandstands indicated you could hardly see the turf course! And the next race, the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf was on the grass with a post of 5:25 pm. How would this play out? Check it out:
But remarkably within fifteen minutes not only was the storm over, but literally the sun was shining and if you'd missed this fifteen minute time frame you'd never have guessed what had just happened! In the Woodford reserve I had my UPSET of the DAY in Divisdero. Last year on Derby Day my longshot winner came in the Grade 2 American Turf when Divisdero had come flying from the back to score at a nice $19.20 payoff. He'd come right back to confirm how talented he was with another big effort in the $200K Pennine Ridge at Belmont. But in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby something had gone amiss. He was off from that July effort until this past winter at Gulfstream. He made his first start of 2016 in the Grade 3 Canadian on Fountain of Youth Day. But that day, not only was he coming off a long layoff, but he was only going a mile, probably too short for his best effort, and worse, he was facing Heart to Heart who won with a wire-to-wire score without any pace pressure. Still his late running 3rd, beaten less than three lengths with a wide trip was better than it looked. He made his second start on Florida Derby Day in the Grade 3 Appleton. Again, only a mile in distance and again without a strong pace to run at. He sat closer to the front - which probably cancelled out a large part of his strong late-running ability - and was very wide into the stretch; just missed when second, beaten a half length. Today, over a course you know he likes, third off the layoff, and getting a full nine furlongs WITH a strong pace, he had to be considered a very legitimate win candidate. Yet he was listed at a HUGE 15/1 in the program. As I wrote in my analysis, if all that wasn't enough, he'd tipped his hand in my book with a sensational :59.3 bullet work over the Churchill Downs grass course. It was also a real plus that the program favorites were coming off layoffs and did their best running at 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 miles. The race could not have played out better as he came roaring off the turn to surge up to the leader. But that longshot runner - who had also been a winner for me at Gulfstream - was a stubborn foe and it wasn't until the final fifty yards that Divisidero got in front. But a winner he was! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
The payoff was a very handsome $15.40 and with my double investment I would be cashing for nearly $80! It had been five races and four long hours between winners, but this victory sealed a winning day for me! They had no sooner crossed the finish line than my phone rang and it was my son Jeff who excitedly told me he'd planned to pass the race, but he looked at my analysis and bet $20 across the board - he would cash for over $200 and his day was a winning one! His "Thanks Dad for the great pick" made me an even bigger winner for the day :) In the Derby I thought it would be an upset and I went back and forth on who to bet. I finally settled on Mohaymen who had disappointed in the Florida Derby, and he did run better despite a poor start. He was 4th at 12/1. Ironically the only horse who I thought if he won would be a surprise was the undefeated favorite, Nyquist....and he did win! Gotta give that guy credit, he just keeps on going. I think he'll be ultra-tough in the Preakness unless some unknown rising star shows up which doesn't seem likely. Now the Belmont, that's a horse of a different color! I had bets in the final two races but both had miserable rides and didn't win. Still, it was a glorious Derby weekend - 22 selections, 8 winners (38%) and a profit of over $100!
I bet the opener with my Xpressbet account as first post was again 10:30 am, and we wanted to be at the track by 11 am. But as it turned out we were both ready early and left and as we walked in the field was approaching the gate for the opener. I rallied from mid-pack to finish third as the 9/5 favorite. In the second race trainer Mark Casse sent out an entry, but jockey Julian Leparoux was named on both. Street Gray had started his career in four straight KEY races and won his last at Keeneland, he was the bet if that was the half that was in today. But as they went to post BOTH halves were in. That was odd I thought. As they broke from the gate Street Sense went right to the front and was cruising alone on the lead and I was thinking how I'd cash at a nice 2/1 price. But as they approached the far turn his stablemate came up with a rush and the two of them dueled into the stretch. An upset winner blew by them and the entry finished 2-3. Immediately my phone rang and it was Jeff who said, "What kind of entry runs like that? The 1a killed off the chances of the 1 - isn't the goal to win for the common owner!" Indeed, a most unusual race and I'm sure that the rider heard from the trainer about that. As I told Jeff, an uncoupled entry, for different owners with the same trainer, ok, I get it that both want to win....but here THE owner lost out on the first place prize despite having two runners. No time to worry about that as immediately in the third I had a pick. Jazzy Times was a $400K sales grad debuting for trainer Bob Baffert. As I mentioned in yesterday's journal, any Baffert sprinter is a strong play and again like yesterday, Javier Castellano was up. He pressed the pace and drew with ease in an impressive performance. I think Jazzy Times has a stakes future ahead of him. I did not have plays in either the 4th or the 5th so Kim and I went across from the paddock to our favorite restaurant, The Yardhouse, for lunch.
As Kim finished her lunch I went back inside the simulcast center to make all my wagers for the remainder of the day. The sixth race was next and it was not only the first of the stakes races, but it was my BET of the Day, the Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Mile on the turf. The star attraction was Tepin. If you follow my racing adventures you should know the story of how she was the horse I'd told my buddy to toss from his trifecta ticket at the Breeders' Cup and has since come back to win three straight in dominating fashion as my best each time. My concern today was how much to bet because she was certain to be a very, very short price and unlike every other race I'd bet her, today she did have a couple of obstacles to overcome. Tepin is probably the best turf filly/mare in the world. But today she drew the rail, and as the two NBS analysts pointed out, the only two races she's lost in the last year and a half came from the rail. Maybe a coincidence. But more importantly was how the race shape would play out. In her two back win at Tampa she'd faced Isabella Sings who had been EIGHTEEN lengths in front as they hit the far turn before Tepin mowed her down, confidently, but narrowly. Today she would face that speedster again but the distance was shorter, only a mile today. I could see Isabella Sings getting out to a big lead, under a more controlled pace and then having another rider pin Tepin in on the rail and force the upset. But the more I looked at it I was certain that she was simply too good for these no matter what happened. As they left the gate sure enough, Isabella Sings was loose on the lead and a longshot was alongside Tepin keeping her on the rail. As they turned down the backside I thought to myself that Tepin was simply too good for the horse pinning her in and I had a good shot. As they hit the turn Tepin eased outside of Isabella Sings and blew by without ever being asked. She opened up and it was all over. ULTRA impressive, again! It's off to England and Royal Ascot next for that gal!
I had won with my best and regardless of how the rest of the day went I was content in cashing my $100 win ticket. As I told Kim on the ride home, as we left after she'd filmed my celebratory video, it wasn't about making money with her, it was about being right. But with a bet of that amount, a loss there would have sealed a losing day regardless of the rest of the race outcomes. I also had a little something up my sleeve regarding this bet! More on that if things play out tomorrow! Check out the journal for the Sunday racing adventure tomorrow! Especially with the races being SOOOO spaced out it was a long afternoon. Tepin's race was at 1:13 pm. The next race, the 7th was the Grade 2 Churchill Downs at seven furlongs with a 1:55 post. My pick Calculator came flying with a big rally, but couldn't catch the winner, 2nd at 6/1. The Grade 1 Humana Distaff, also at 7 panels, went to post as the 8th at 2:45 pm. Enchanting Lady had every chance with a strong bid into the lane, but just wasn't good enough - third, again at 6/1. I really thought Airoforce had the best chance to win in the Grade 2 American Turf (9th race) when they went to the post at 3:35 pm, but instead of tracking the pace he dueled on the front all the way into the stretch before weakening to be 4th at 3/1. The 10th was a disappointment as Bob Baffert's American Freedom disappointed at 6/5 when fading to 7th. The word was out that Baffert considered this last out debut maiden winner his top three year old, period. Post time for that race had been at 4:25. At about 5 pm torrential rains opened up in Louisville that were reminiscent of last year's Preakness. It was too bad with everyone all dressed up and it came just as the performers began singing the National Anthem. The wind was howling at probably close to 40 mph and the rain was a so intense that one camera shot from in the grandstands indicated you could hardly see the turf course! And the next race, the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf was on the grass with a post of 5:25 pm. How would this play out? Check it out:
But remarkably within fifteen minutes not only was the storm over, but literally the sun was shining and if you'd missed this fifteen minute time frame you'd never have guessed what had just happened! In the Woodford reserve I had my UPSET of the DAY in Divisdero. Last year on Derby Day my longshot winner came in the Grade 2 American Turf when Divisdero had come flying from the back to score at a nice $19.20 payoff. He'd come right back to confirm how talented he was with another big effort in the $200K Pennine Ridge at Belmont. But in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby something had gone amiss. He was off from that July effort until this past winter at Gulfstream. He made his first start of 2016 in the Grade 3 Canadian on Fountain of Youth Day. But that day, not only was he coming off a long layoff, but he was only going a mile, probably too short for his best effort, and worse, he was facing Heart to Heart who won with a wire-to-wire score without any pace pressure. Still his late running 3rd, beaten less than three lengths with a wide trip was better than it looked. He made his second start on Florida Derby Day in the Grade 3 Appleton. Again, only a mile in distance and again without a strong pace to run at. He sat closer to the front - which probably cancelled out a large part of his strong late-running ability - and was very wide into the stretch; just missed when second, beaten a half length. Today, over a course you know he likes, third off the layoff, and getting a full nine furlongs WITH a strong pace, he had to be considered a very legitimate win candidate. Yet he was listed at a HUGE 15/1 in the program. As I wrote in my analysis, if all that wasn't enough, he'd tipped his hand in my book with a sensational :59.3 bullet work over the Churchill Downs grass course. It was also a real plus that the program favorites were coming off layoffs and did their best running at 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 miles. The race could not have played out better as he came roaring off the turn to surge up to the leader. But that longshot runner - who had also been a winner for me at Gulfstream - was a stubborn foe and it wasn't until the final fifty yards that Divisidero got in front. But a winner he was! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
The payoff was a very handsome $15.40 and with my double investment I would be cashing for nearly $80! It had been five races and four long hours between winners, but this victory sealed a winning day for me! They had no sooner crossed the finish line than my phone rang and it was my son Jeff who excitedly told me he'd planned to pass the race, but he looked at my analysis and bet $20 across the board - he would cash for over $200 and his day was a winning one! His "Thanks Dad for the great pick" made me an even bigger winner for the day :) In the Derby I thought it would be an upset and I went back and forth on who to bet. I finally settled on Mohaymen who had disappointed in the Florida Derby, and he did run better despite a poor start. He was 4th at 12/1. Ironically the only horse who I thought if he won would be a surprise was the undefeated favorite, Nyquist....and he did win! Gotta give that guy credit, he just keeps on going. I think he'll be ultra-tough in the Preakness unless some unknown rising star shows up which doesn't seem likely. Now the Belmont, that's a horse of a different color! I had bets in the final two races but both had miserable rides and didn't win. Still, it was a glorious Derby weekend - 22 selections, 8 winners (38%) and a profit of over $100!
Derby Weekend Highlights
Derby Fashion
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