May 14th
Today marks the start of the Monmouth Park Racing Season and I've decided to handicap each card through it's closing this fall, unless I'm traveling. There were also graded features at Belmont and with those two tracks I analyzed seven others to have nearly forty races on my selection sheet as I headed out to Gulfstream and the Silks Simulcast Center. As I went through the various races I could tell that today would result in a big profit or some disappointment as I thought there were legitimate chances to beat the favorite in many of the races AND I had a "prime time / BEST of the Day" bet and nearly every track. The results were mixed.....of the six best bets I hit a sharp 67% of them; but through the rest of the day the pickings were slim as the favorites I found vulnerable won most of the big races and I was close without winning in most others. I was slightly under my usual 30% plus for the day and lost money. But I have to say I enjoyed the day and nearly every winner had a great story. So I'll focus on those stories and you can check out the results page if you want to see the losers on the day! I thought it was oh-so-fitting that the first win of the day would come in the opener at Monmouth Park.....and that it would be the favorite with "money in the bank" Paco Lopez on board. It was a non-winners of 3-lifetime sprint and Brother Bobo was being trained by Kelly Breen, who teams with Lopez to win 30% of the time. I was a little leery that his last race was a win against 2-lifetime and he was moving up to the next level today, typically not a winning angle. But, it was Lopez at Monmouth and even more importantly there weren't any legitimate favorites to beat here. Bobo broke sharply, but was taken back to sit the perfect garden trip off the speed. As they swung out of the turn Lopez had three lengths to make up but he had all the momentum and wore down the leaders in deep stretch to edge clear in the final fifty yards. I only had the minimum and he was an even-money shot, so my first win resulted in a little over $10 in returned funds. The weather forecast earlier in the week when I began my handicapping called for a good chance of rain today locally so I'd been pretty concerned about spending time on the turf races. I found three races I liked locally, one was a "turf only" if they stayed on the grass. The first of those came in the opener a 5 1/2 furlong sprint for 2-lifetime runners. El Gran Gayego seemed to be one of those "either he's way the best or he's an obvious play-against" runner. It took him nine starts to break his maiden and had run second three consecutive times at this $6,250 2L level. But he was claimed by a barn that wins with 22% of those at a huge $6.49 ROI and today's rider was a 32% winner for this outfit. He burst from the gate and was quickly open lengths clear. They never got within two lengths of him and he was never asked for his best. Unfortunately he was pounded in the final minutes of the betting all the way down to 2/5 post time odds and so my double investment was netting me less than $15.
It took me over an hour to find the winner's circle again, this time at Belmont Park in a Maiden Special event. The key to the race was the configuration that the immense Belmont Park track uses for it's mile and a sixteenth races. Those are ONE-turn events. My pick was Doctor Mounty. He had debuted on Fountain of Youth Day when he faced Todd Pletcher's talented Mo Power. That guy was my co-BET of the Day and I had $50 to win on him, He moved strongly on the turn and I thought he'd run away but he had to fight to win and eventually drew clear from.......Doctor Mounty! That race was a ONE-turn mile. 'Mounty came back in his second start as the favorite going nine furlongs at Aqueduct around TWO turns. So I thought if he ran back to the way he had run at Gulfstream going a one-turn route he'd be tough to beat. The crowd sent him off at 6/5 and he glided to the front on the turn and drew off in hand, winning by open lengths! I had tripled the bet so I would be cashing for nearly $35!
Right back with my BEST of the Day at Pimlico. This was a Maiden Claiming event going an even mile on the grass. Let me step back for just a second to make this observation, which I've noted many times in my racing journals......one of the great things about this game is that you never know where that "BEST" bet is going to be. They pay just as much for a winner of the 4th at Pimlico in a maiden event as they do for a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Championship race if you have the winner. It's always important to keep that in mind when visiting the races. And today five of my six "best bets" were NOT in stakes events, but in the undercard races like this. As I noted in my analysis, if this race were run to the numbers Bridge of Luck would win by daylight. In his four career starts for trainer Michael Matz he'd earned Beyers of 64-69-70-65. Of the fifty three races run by his rivals three were competitive with those and one of those efforts had been in 2014 with the other two coming a year ago in 2015! NOTHING in all of 2016 matched the speed & class Bridge of Luck had shown this year! AND all of those efforts were in Maiden Special events, and today he was dropping in for a tag. Looked big time good to me. But I was a little alarmed when I got Gabby Gaudet's analysis for the day - not only did she NOT pick Bridge of Luck, he wasn't even in her top three! Uh oh. And then when she hit a 13/1 selection early on the card I began to wonder if maybe I was missing something. As they approached the far turn Bridge of Luck was near the back and now I was concerned. But then the rider asked and he blew by all but the top two as he rounded the turn. As they hit the top of the stretch in was in full flight for the wire and just kept right on going running to his numbers to win convincingly. And I think perhaps many fans had followed Gabby's picks because Bridge of Luck should never have been 9/5 in this field, but he was and my "prime time investment" earned me nearly $60. My next win came about 45 minutes later and it was again a "Best of the Day" and again in a maiden race. This was the sixth at Churchill Downs going five and a half furlongs. I probably would have picked this filly to win, but the decisiveness of the bet came because of my following of racing on a regular basis. On Jenny Wiley Day at Keeneland several Saturday afternoons ago (ironically as I sat in this very seat, #92 in the Silks Simulcast Center) my BET of the Day that afternoon had been the featured Grade 1 Jenny Wiley from Keeneland. But my second-best bet of the day came in a maiden sprint where my top pick was Kareena. That filly was exiting a best-of-the-rest second behind a filly that was running later that day in a Grade 3 event and I thought Kareena looked ultra tough. She won under wraps by half the length of the stretch to no one's surprise at a miniscule 1/5 price. But right behind her finishing a best-of-the-rest second was Julerette. Today she showed up here at this shorter distance. It's always a concern will a horse take to the unique Churchill surface but Julerette had debuted here and was third in her debut behind a filly that should have won in allowance company last week on the Derby undercard. Julerette dueled, while in hand, through the turn and when asked the question drew off with authority! My SECOND prime-time victory in as many bets on the day!
It was almost an hour before my next win, and again it was my "Best Bet," this time at Belmont. Offering Plan would have been the choice simply because she was being sent out by Chad Brown with Javier Castellano on board; she would have been the top choice simply because her last two Beyers of 96 and 99 were better than any lifetime figures earned by today's rivals; But she was coming off a layoff - and that turned out to be THE KEY; Brown had raced this filly three times previously off the bench (including her debut) and she'd WON ALL THREE! She was 4/5 at post time and Castellano rode her patiently through the turn then swung wide to get clear run. He appeared to have work to do but he still seemed confident. Inside the final 16th he asked for her best, she surged, and was up in time! WHOOOOO HOOOOO!
With the 4/5 odds I would be cashing for nearly $40! Not nearly so long for my next win, less than twenty minutes before the feature at Churchill Downs, the Unbridled Sydney Stakes going five furlongs on the turf. Wesley Ward had sent out Acapulco to race against the colts in a 4 1/2 furlong dirt sprint last spring at Keeneland. She was the 3/5 favorite and led into the stretch before weakening to be third. Off that effort he sent her to Royal Ascot, and put her in the Group 2 Queen Anne Stakes against NINETEEN other fillies. And in spite of being first time turf, first time England, first time running on a straight away against nineteen rivals, she was the 2/1 favorite! AND SHE WON! Came right back in a Group 1 against the colts York and was the 8/5 favorite! She led with fifty yards to go before weakening to be best-of-the-rest second! She had made her 2016 debut at Turfway on their synthetic main track and won an allowance sprint. Today she was back on the grass and Ward had proclaimed publicly that her next start was the target, another Group event at Royal Ascot. But he also said he thought she was ready "enough" to win here. And indeed she was. She broke a step slowly, but quickly recovered to duel with two others into the turn; one dropped out and two of them dueled through the turn. Acapulco hit the after burners in the stretch and kissed the field GOOD BYE!
I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for $30 on my 7th winner of the day. Missed in two graded events at Belmont but got my first winner of the summer at Arlington in their 6th. It was a non-winners of two lifetime going five and a half furlongs on the main track. Carlientita looked to be the kind that most would play against, and I made the comment on my sheet that I wouldn't blame anyone for going another direction - she was exiting her maiden to face first time winners and there appeared to be other speed that would compromise her chances to take them gate to wire. BUT, as I also noted, there is no one, and I mean NO ONE in Chicago and in my opinion all of North America who is a better front-end jockey than E.T. Baird. Give him the front and you're in serious deep waters. Sure enough, right to the front and in hand the entire way as the 4/5 favorite!
I lost four consecutive stakes races when factors beyond normal handicapping worked against me. In the Grade 3 Marine at Woodbine Riker was the 7/5 favorite and likely to wire the field, but was pressured from the start by a long shot into the far turn, by then he had nothing for the drive home. In the Decathalon at Monmouth Paco Lopez had Seeking the Sherif pressing the longshot leader on the rail when that one came over and he had to stop, literally. Went from second by 1/2 a length to the back some ten lengths out of it. The fact that one went on to win and was DQ'd did me little good. In the Grade 3 Beaugay on the turf at Belmont My Miss Sophia looked to be the lone speed and was bet down to 9/5 favoritism. She was clear by five easy lengths by jockey Joel Rosario somehow could not relax her and she rattled off fractions of :23, :46.1, and 1:09 despite having no pressure. Nothing left for the stretch - remarkable she held fourth. In the Grade 2 Peter Pan I played against the favorite, unbeaten Unified who had never been two turns, much less nine furlongs. But for the first time in his career he relaxed off the lead to the stretch and was able to
win.
I got my final win of the day in the Singletary Stakes at Santa Anita where Arcature was my So Cal "Best Bet." She'd won her debut and then was close in back-to-back stakes, the most recent behind a filly that just missed in a photo in a graded stakes on the CD Derby undercard. She rated nicely to the turn, moved in hand to a clear lead to the furlong pole. But when the closer came flying she was all out to hold on, but she did indeed, my ninth winner of the day and fourth "Best Bet" victory on my sheets. I thought I might have one more good play in the finale at Gulfstream where I decided to bet Zatara in a maiden claiming event on the turf. What caught my eye was Acacia Courtney, the new "filly" analyst/side-kick to grizzly veteran Ron Nicoletti....no, not the fact that she is ultra-hot, but on her "Pick Five" ticket she'd singled Zatara. And as they were analyzing the horses in the paddock Courtney noted that she was indeed alive for the Pick Five with her single. That's some good handicapping my friend, so I decided to tag along with this new handicapper. I was on the rail as the horse was heading into the gate as the second choice at 5/2. As he stood waiting for the rest of the field he acted up, tossed the rider and was scratched. What was really awful was that Courtney - by the rules - was still holding a live ticket and would get the post-time favorite. Who knows if that would have been her back-up, but that's who she got and that one finished a well-beaten 7th and non one won the pool. Not right, felt badly for her. This next week I pick up the handicapping as Woodbine launches their Wednesday night cards, so I'll be doing those on a regular basis, and next weekend is Preakness weekend with a big card Friday on Black-Eyed Susans Day. I leave Tuesday morning at 6:30 am for Ohio and will be there until Sunday, but the racing continues thanks to the wonder of the Internet and my Xpressbet account!
With the 4/5 odds I would be cashing for nearly $40! Not nearly so long for my next win, less than twenty minutes before the feature at Churchill Downs, the Unbridled Sydney Stakes going five furlongs on the turf. Wesley Ward had sent out Acapulco to race against the colts in a 4 1/2 furlong dirt sprint last spring at Keeneland. She was the 3/5 favorite and led into the stretch before weakening to be third. Off that effort he sent her to Royal Ascot, and put her in the Group 2 Queen Anne Stakes against NINETEEN other fillies. And in spite of being first time turf, first time England, first time running on a straight away against nineteen rivals, she was the 2/1 favorite! AND SHE WON! Came right back in a Group 1 against the colts York and was the 8/5 favorite! She led with fifty yards to go before weakening to be best-of-the-rest second! She had made her 2016 debut at Turfway on their synthetic main track and won an allowance sprint. Today she was back on the grass and Ward had proclaimed publicly that her next start was the target, another Group event at Royal Ascot. But he also said he thought she was ready "enough" to win here. And indeed she was. She broke a step slowly, but quickly recovered to duel with two others into the turn; one dropped out and two of them dueled through the turn. Acapulco hit the after burners in the stretch and kissed the field GOOD BYE!
I'd tripled the bet so I cashed for $30 on my 7th winner of the day. Missed in two graded events at Belmont but got my first winner of the summer at Arlington in their 6th. It was a non-winners of two lifetime going five and a half furlongs on the main track. Carlientita looked to be the kind that most would play against, and I made the comment on my sheet that I wouldn't blame anyone for going another direction - she was exiting her maiden to face first time winners and there appeared to be other speed that would compromise her chances to take them gate to wire. BUT, as I also noted, there is no one, and I mean NO ONE in Chicago and in my opinion all of North America who is a better front-end jockey than E.T. Baird. Give him the front and you're in serious deep waters. Sure enough, right to the front and in hand the entire way as the 4/5 favorite!
I lost four consecutive stakes races when factors beyond normal handicapping worked against me. In the Grade 3 Marine at Woodbine Riker was the 7/5 favorite and likely to wire the field, but was pressured from the start by a long shot into the far turn, by then he had nothing for the drive home. In the Decathalon at Monmouth Paco Lopez had Seeking the Sherif pressing the longshot leader on the rail when that one came over and he had to stop, literally. Went from second by 1/2 a length to the back some ten lengths out of it. The fact that one went on to win and was DQ'd did me little good. In the Grade 3 Beaugay on the turf at Belmont My Miss Sophia looked to be the lone speed and was bet down to 9/5 favoritism. She was clear by five easy lengths by jockey Joel Rosario somehow could not relax her and she rattled off fractions of :23, :46.1, and 1:09 despite having no pressure. Nothing left for the stretch - remarkable she held fourth. In the Grade 2 Peter Pan I played against the favorite, unbeaten Unified who had never been two turns, much less nine furlongs. But for the first time in his career he relaxed off the lead to the stretch and was able to
May 14 Video Highlights
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