Preakness Saturday
At the end of the day I was very happy with the way the day's handicapping and racing turned out, and it was a wonderful weekend on every level. The ONLY thing that was not perfect was that I didn't come close to what has been a "normal" Preakness Saturday where I had twenty or more wins, but then I wasn't at the races and only played one track (primarily) so that could not have happened regardless of how spot on my handicapping was. The rains came down in Maryland starting last night and it made for an off main track, but kudos to the Pimlico officials for keeping all but the 14th race on the grass. The first race went to the post at an early 10:30 am (gates had opened at 8:30 am!) and we were under way. I thought that Double Whammy looked strong in the opener, a starter allowance as he exited allowances races in a spot restricted to those who'd started for $5K. He'd be chasing the white hot Golden Rings who was the speed, but was cheap speed. He came running but Golden Rings held on for second while a closer nipped my pick for second. In the third Good Luck Gus was the prohibitive 1/5 choice, and my top pick. He was a multiple state-bred stakes winner and again he'd have a lone speed to chase - flying and wide, but too far back, a close second. The fifth was the first of the stakes races, this one being the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap. In my initial handicapping I thought that the program favorite at even money, multiple graded stakes winner Salutos Amigos looked vulnerable. But he was easily the class of the field and he looked like he'd get plenty of pace to run at. Still, I was wavering. But when the weather forecast came out it sealed the deal......Salutos Amigos was a PERFECT 7-FOR-7 on the off going. Class and loves the mud, duh. I was surprised and delighted that the crowd let him go off at 6/5, and I was surprised at how far back he was, but I'd seen this guy run down loose on the lead speed before when seemingly hopelessly beaten. So as they turned for home I knew he was about to kick it into overdrive.......fifth of six under the wire to the 8/5 second choice. Not good when you have a guy who's perfect at the conditions and you don't win! As part of my summer handicapping project where I handicap every live racing card from Monmouth I was playing their races today in addition to Pimlico. Their second race featured a nw3L claiming event where Scotland Bay had been claimed two back by Jorge Navarro who has been on fire to start the meet. She dropped into this 3L race for a $12.5K tag after having run WON an OPEN $16K spot first off the claim. Obvious choice - rated to the turn and blew by to win going away. Back to Maryland for their 7th where your opinion of the race went strictly through what you thought of Chief Istan. He was a perfect 2-for-2 who was a front runner on the rail. But his most recent win at Keeneland had come in April.....of last year! Trainer Larry Jones is 30% off the long break and he'd put two bullet works into the Chief. There was other speed to the outside so Chief Istan sat off the pace into the stretch, opened up and held off the late charge of a closer to be a clear winner and my first score at Pimlico today! Next up was THE race of the day and the weekend. This would decide not only how the bottom line for the day would go but for the entire weekend. It was the Very One Stakes going five furlongs on the turf in the 8th at Pimlico. It was not any kind of handicapping magic, as CLEARLY Lady Shipman was the one to beat. She was one of the best turf sprinters in the country facing listed opposition. The question to me was how much to invest? Knowing she'd be odds on, was I ready to risk the entire weekend's winnings chasing a small profit? I went back and forth beginning yesterday after Ben's Cat's win about the wager. I had settled on $50 because that would be a BIG TIME play and show of confidence, but if there was an unlikely loss, especially over the off going - AND she'd drawn post 12 - then it wouldn't completely wipe out the winnings or the Xpressbet account. But about fifteen minutes before post time as I went to make the bet, I re-examined my selection sheet and what I'd written jumped off the page - "....of the 212 combined races run by the eleven other fillies and mares, NONE of them had ever earned a triple Beyer speed figure; but contrast Lady Shipman came in here with SEVEN CONSECUTIVE TRIPLE BEYERS! She's an EIGHT-time stakes winner who was 2nd as a 3yo filly against older males in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint......" It was time to pull the trigger and I unloaded - $100 to WIN! She broke sharply and was quickly headed to the front, but two to her inside took advantage of their inside position to get to the front. No worries as she's stalked speed before and she comfortably tracked the emerging leader into the turn. BUt when they hit the top of the stretch she opened up and ran away under a hand ride! WHOOO HOOO!
I would have loved to have cashed for the 3/5 price she'd been as they loaded into the gate, but I still was celebrating in front of my Mom, sister and niece in my Mom's living room as the victory brought me a profit of $40. All is right with the handicapping world for the remainder of the day. Love to be right and put my money where my confidence is! Less than a minute later they were off in the 5th at Monmouth where that race was my "best" of the day. It was a maiden claiming event and I liked Social Stranger, again from the Jorge Navarro barn. Third off the layoff but exiting a race where both the second and third place winners came back to score. Looked easily best. Right to the front and was never, ever threatened. Normally the triple investment winner would be cause for celebration, but with the $100 winning wager on Lady Shipman I was simply pleased to get my fourth victory of the day. I passed on the Chick Lang Stakes for 3yo sprinters but my top choice won, sigh....but I cashed for my third straight winner on the Monmouth card when Paco Lopez gave Awesome Speed a brilliant ride. He sat off the speed about two back and waited to the top of the lane. Those two floated four paths off the rail, he hit the accelerator and was gone. It was the "big price" winner of the day at Monmouth, paying $4.60, so I collected nearly $23. In the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimilico I liked Tiger Ride who was the 9/5 favorite. I was encouraged when NBC's Eddie Olychuk made her his "Bet of the Day." She had a rough trip into the stretch but when she was clear with a chance to get the win she ran evenly to the wire, 8th. Glad I was only in for the minimum. In the 8th at Monmouth I went against the favorite who I'd seen win many times over the winter at Gulfstream, but she was a front-running fool that might face pressure. I went with Paco Lopez for Todd Pletcher and Chip It was a good second at a good 3/1 price, behind the top one who was simply too fast. While waiting for that race to go off the NBC broadcast team had trainer Bob Baffert on the set and part of the conversation was about the upcoming Sir Barton Stakes for 3yo colts. They asked him about his entry, American Freedom, who he had made no secret about two weeks ago to tell everyone that the colt was his best three-year-old in the barn. But after being bet down from 8/1 to 6/5 he ran sixth. Baffert explained that he felt bad because so many people had invested heavily, and he said he felt "pressure" because he begged the owners to let him run him back today. So, the analysts said, will he pay off today? Baffert replied he was confident and that "....we'll get everyone their money back today....." I had already made him my top choice and he was the crowd's pick as well. He went right to the front but a long shot was running with him and would not go away. As soon as he disposed of that one a stalker came to him and pressured him into the stretch. But as they turned for home he put his head in front and battled to the 16th pole then exerted his talent and edged clear! NICE!
He only paid $4.60 but I would cash for nearly $35! In Monmouth's feather I went with Paco Lopez at a big 4/1 price and again went against the short-priced front runner. That one wired the field and I was third. The Grade 2 Dixie on the turf at Pimlico was wide open and I went with Prince Gagarin who'd won for me at a nice price at Keeneland last out. He was a big 8/1 and made a huge move on the turn and I really thought I had it. But as he hit the stretch he ran evenly without any closing kick. Sixth. Next up was the featured Preakness. It's well documented that I have not believed in Nyquist and immediately after the Derby I had said I would gladly take a stand against him in the Preakness. But after analyzing and handicapping the race he was just too much the best. Not a great horse, but simply better than these. The race set up perfectly for him with not one but FOUR who would want the lead and he could sit a perfect stalking trip, blow by on the turn and again hold off the late running Exaggerator. So I broke my own rule and bet him. The gates opened and immediately he was HUSTLED to get the lead. What is he doing? I said out loud. The opening quarter was :22 and change the half mile in :45 in change and he was dueling all the way. WHAT is he doing? Trying to be like American Pharoah from last year who just took it to the field. I was thinking the entire time, you are no American Pharoah and sure enough as they turned for home Exaggerator had had the perfect wicked pace to close into and he blew by to hand Nyquist his first ever career loss as he was a solid third after being mis-handled. Later trainer Doug O'Neill said they were so confident and thought he was so much the best that they "didn't want to get cute" and try to work out a trip. Wow. Glad I had re-evaluated my betting strategy because originally I was going to bet both Lady Shipman and Nyquist with $50 win tickets! Instead it was $100 to win on Lady Shipman and only $20 here. Five minutes after the Preakness I logged onto the NYRA website to collect on what I was very confident would be a winning selection in their featured Grade 3 Vagrancy. Last time out Paulassilverlining had won the Grade 3 Distaff over Cavorting. That one had come back to absolutely romp in the Grade 2 Ruffian last weekend. AND Paula stood out over her rivals easily. She rated behind three front runners, split horses into the stretch and ran away under a hand ride with my $25 winning ticket to be my SEVENTH winner on the day!
For the day I cashed a sharp 7-for-15 on the day and was profitable. I'll happily take that! And for the weekend I ended up 11-for-25, over 40% and a profit of nearly $100. A great weekend of racing; a great weekend with the family; and I got to enjoy temperatures in the 40s in the mornings and crisp 60 degree weather throughout the afternoons. It was a perfect spring trip to Ohio!
Preakness Weekend Highlight Video
Preakness Fashion
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