August 28

A B-I-G Day To End The Week / Month

Today was New Jersey Thoroughbred Festival Day at Monmouth with every race restricted to New Jersey bred thoroughbreds with three stakes races on the 11 race card.  I was hopeful of a good day after the lackluster win total yesterday on the highlight day of the weekend.  Because we were in Orlando with the whole new baby experience I knew I wouldn't have time for a multi-race handicapping session, so I planned to just play the Monmouth card.  But after running through the card and quickly finding that thee of the first five were obvious "PASS" races I began to wonder if I could add another card to the selection sheet.  But I couldn't find anything worthy of looking at so I stuck to the conservative five picks.  After passing the opening two races I liked D'wild Kiss in the third who was one of only two runners who'd won on the grass, and the other had not won since October 2015!  He was the 3/1 third choice and was in prime position through the turn and into the stretch where I knew he'd run down the leader.  But that one kept on going at 13/1 odds to a runaway victory.  Second for me.  The fourth was the first of the trio of stakes races, the New Jersey Breeders' Handicap, and it looked to me like Chubalicious was a standout, well worth every penny of the skimpy 3/2 program odds.  He moved into top trainer Jorge Navarro's barn last fall and had debuted this spring with back-to-back triple digit Beyers while winning two stakes races.  The first was a NJ-bred like this one, but the second was the open Mr. Prospector.  He had tried the Grade 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga last time out and was clearly overmatched.  Today he was back with NJ-breds and looked really tough.  My plan was to triple the bet.  I was working online while watching the races and Monmouth Park handicapper Brad Thomas came on to give his analysis and picks.  He never, and I mean N-E-V-E-R goes with a short priced favorite and Chubalicious was sitting on the board at 2/5.  But as he went through the race he remarked that this looked to be clearly his race and the race flow was a perfect set-up for him and he could not go against him.....he was picking the short priced favorite!  Well that's a first I thought.  So I immediately went into my Xpressbet account and upped the ante to make him the BEST of the day!  His uncoupled stable mate set a hot pace and the second choice chased that one in vain while Chubalicious got the perfect trip behind those two.  On the turn the rider asked and he blew by handily to win going away!  WHOOO HOOO! 

My $25 win bet returned $35 and I was ahead for the day!  I passed the 5th and 6th - interesting stories though.  The fifth I remarked "good luck!" because it was so wide open I couldn't even name any horses.....true enough the winner was a $74 winner with no form to speak of.  In the 6th the one thing I was certain of was that Valedictorian would NOT be getting my support after running dully as the prohibitive odds-on choice last time (with my money).  Today he was a very big 3/1 and looked like a superstar - go figure!  In the 7th it looked to all about Banana Anna who was the even money favorite.  Paco Lopez had her in a perfect stalking position as a 40/1 front runner set the pace.  He asked on the turn and she began picking off horses.  In mid-stretch she split horses and had dead aim on the leader with all the momentum.  But inside the final 16th she couldn't get by and the big balloon payoffs were on!  Second, again for me.  No bet in the 8th then in the 9th I liked Bustin Out to wire the Eleven North Stakes.  She'dnot been able to make the lead last time out when facing graded stakes winner Stonetastic.  And three back she'd been run down by today's program favorite She's Hot Wired.  But the more I looked at it two things jumped off the page.....first, that loss had come over a sloppy track so that COULD be a valid excuse.  Second, and perhaps more importantly, her last three fast track figures were 86-87-90.  Clearly the off-going had been a factor.  With no other speed in here I thought she'd be long gone.  Still, not certain enough to go prime time so I doubled the bet.  But again, as I watched the races Brad Thomas came on and remarked that she would be really hard to run down in this spot as a loose-on-the-lead front runner on a fast, dry track.  Good enough for me, I went into my account and doubled the bet to make her a "prime time" play.  Right to the front and never looked back - in fact she opened up in the lane to draw off even more impressively!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO my second stakes win and for the second time my decision to up the ante had paid off! 

The last race I was playing was the Charles Hess III Handicap in the next race.  I re-read my analysis and I liked Jersey Blues with Paco Lopez up.  He was listed at a big 9/2 but I remarked that perhaps he'd go off favored based on the fact that in his four state-bred races in his past performances he'd been a best-of-the-rest second in a MSW sprint, then dominated his MSW rivals sprinting.  And more importantly his last two route races in first level then second level allowances had resulted in dominant wins by daylight.  But ten minutes before post time three horses, including Jersey Blues were 4/1 on the board and a filly, in post ten was the 5/2 favorite.  Clearly no one could make heads or tails of this.  I did a quick check and for the day I was 2-for-4 and was ahead $5.  If Jersey Blues loses I'll finish a strong 40% on the day.....have won BOTH big bets......both stakes races.....and still managed to lose money!  Maybe, I thought, I should cut the bet in half so worse case scenario I break even for the day.  Then I responded to myself to have faith in my handicapping and to take the positive outlook - what if he wins?  I'll have a big day!  And how upset would I be if I cut the bet back?  Just then Brad Thomas came on air to analyze the field.  His pick at a price....Jersey Blues!  He pressed the pace into the turn and then Lopez gave the best signal ..... he took the patented peak under his arm to see if there were any threats coming.  Almost always when he does this at Monmouth he's about to let his horse go to an authoritative win.  Sure enough as they hit the top of the stretch Jersey Blues was cut loose and romped home! 

He paid a huge $9.40 and I cashed for nearly $50!  For the day I was a sharp 3-for-5 (60%) and had profited over $40 on the day!  And for the three day weekend I'd picked NINE Stakes Winners!

August 27

It's THE BIG Day at Saratoga, Travers Day!  But as I went through the card I found that I didn't have a lot of confidence in many of the races.  And I also found myself thinking that I DID have a lot of confidence in two runners so I should not ruin the day by forcing bets where I didn't have a big advantage.  And as it turned out that was the best decision of the day.  I ended up passing on nine races of the twenty-five events offered at Monmouth and Saratoga.  And of the sixteen that I had a bet I had four more that I only had the minimum wager on.  So at the end of the day despite only three wins I only lost a small amount.  Often times I looked at the day with a positive spin if I can look at a losing day and definitively say that one race could have turned the day around.  That was clearly the case today.  I had two races that I had every chance to win but didn't and if I'd scored in EITHER of those I'd have had a winning day.  The first of those was in the second at Monmouth where The Iron Bank shipped in from Delaware to run in a maiden claiming sprint.  Went off at a big 9/2 and stalked the pace through the turn, but the winner drew off to be a clear winner.  That would have brought me $55.  I was surprised when Fusiachi Red was a well-beaten fourth at even money in a third level allowance in the third at Monmouth and even more surprised when Carina Mia was third at even money in the Grade 1 Ballerina despite giving Songbird all she could handle in the Grade 1 CCA Oaks in her previous start.  I got my first win of the day in the Grade 1 King's Bishop where I thought it was a wide open event with a full field.  But Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had sent two in here.  He'd missed the break in his debut, but since then had blistered through his first, second, and third level conditions by daylight.  I thought he'd get a nice stalking trip under Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith.  But instead he went right to the front and was never threatened.  

He was a generous 3/1 at post time and I cashed for nearly $45 on the win.  After passing on three races it was time for my BET of the Weekend in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer going a mile and a half on the turf.  Flintshire had been my BEST bet on the Belmont undercard in the Manhattan then had been my best of the day in the Bowling Green last time out.  He won that day despite being blocked from the top of the turn to the furlong pole and STILL was under a hand ride under the wire.  My only concern was a troubled trip.  As they hit the far turn Javier Castellano was on the rail and I thought he should have gone wide to get a clear run, but he stayed inside and it looked like he wouldn't get out.  But as heads turned for home a small hole opened up and in the blink of an eye Flintshire was through and long gone.  I thought he should have legitimately been 1/9 at post time so for me the 1/5 price was stealing.  And instead of just going in with a US Grant I was in with a big Ben Franklin bill!  WHOOO HOOOO!  

My last winner of the day came in the 10th at Monmouth in an entry level allowance.  Bandwidth had debuted with a professional blow-out win from a stalking trip and earned a solid 77 BSF.  In his next start he stretched to two turns at the tough Keeneland fall meet and ran into Gun Runner who went on to take the Fair Grounds Derby preps and run third in the Kentucky Derby before winning the Grade 3 Matt Winn.  He was a Monmouth 40% Club play with Nik Juarez riding for Jason Servis today and had big stats on all the appropriate categories.  He broke from the eight hole and was three wide into the turn, but as they sprinted for home he opened up and was long gone.  The triple investment and the 5/2 odds led to a payoff of more than $50!

August 24 - 26

Slow Start To The Week - Big Friday At The Spa

I have begun playing Presque Isle Downs on a regular basis on Wednesday along with Woodbine in anticipation of our trip in mid-September for their graded stakes weekend.  So the first race on the sheet for Wednesday was the 2nd from Erie, a second level allowance route and I thought that Lighthouse Sound to run down the logical pace-setting favorite Brother Pat.  I doubled the bet and the race played out much as I'd anticipated.  Brother Pat was sent off as the short 3/5 favorite and led into the lane while Lighthouse Sound sat mid-pack to the turn.  Jockey Antonio Gallardo rallied him into the lane and blew by the competition to draw off.  

The best part was that he was sent off at nearly 3/1 and I cashed for almost $40 to start the week!  WHOOO HOOO!  But the rest of the evening was a disappointment.  Ran off the board in all but one with the exception of the last race on the evening where the 8/5 favorite, Skylander Boy dueled to the 16th pole at Woodbine before being outfinished.  My big chance to get even with my "upset special" in the Woodbine finale scratched out and I finished 1-for-7 to start the last full week in August.

Thursday August 25

A long-awaited event took place on the dark day of racing for the week.....our youngest son Brad and his wife Lauren brought their first child into this world as Oliver Scott was born around 9:30 pm.  We got the first call at 3:30 am, then they were sent home.  But around 11 am they went back and we got the notice that this was the real deal.  We drove up in the afternoon and got there around 6 pm to see the kids before things got going.  Around 9:15 Brad texted us that she was ready to push and less than fifteen minutes later Oliver was born on three quick pushes.  So happy for the kids and so glad we were there to see it all take place!

Friday August 26

Today I had my usual selections for Monmouth, but I also had picks on the Saratoga card where it was New York Showcase Day with six state-bred stakes on the card.  A quick note about more racing news about another racing adventure on the horizon.  Before we took off for Orlando I made the decision after nearly two weeks of going back and forth to commit to another racing adventure.  When Songbird ran away with the Grade 1 Alabama she was shipped back to her home base in So Cal.  Then a couple of days later word came from her connections that their next schedule start would be in Philadelphia in the Grade 1 $1 Million Cotillion Stakes on Pennsylvania Derby Day.  I had had this date on my early list of potential trips for the fall, but the schedule became too full.  Now however I was anxious to see this super filly run.  But every time I looked at options it just seemed too expensive for a weekend trip, especially when the previous weekend I'd be on a racing adventure in Erie and the following weekend I'd be gone again on a visit to Ohio coupled with a racing day at Churchill Downs with Keith.  But then on Wednesday I looked on Expedia for a quick trip up and back.  I found an early morning direct flight, but couldn't get back home on the same day.  Then I decided to try the "bundle" option where they put together a flight, hotel, and car package at a discount.  I was able to build a trip where I left here at 6:30 am on Saturday morning and fly non-stop to Philadelphia.  My arrival will be about 9 am and it's a 45 minute drive to the track where doors open at 10, first race at noon.  I called Parx and reserved a table in the clubhouse for the day.  The hotel is less than a mile from the track and the return trip leaves at 10:30 am and is also non-stop, putting me home around noon.  The price, including a car, just $330!  So I thought about it over night and then Thursday before we left I decided to book the trip.  But, the price had changed......it was only $262!  WOW what a deal.  I contacted my buddy Jim Anderson and asked if he'd like to come along and he booked the flight!  Pretty cool - and then I found out another sharp three-year-old, Gun Runner was targeting the Pa Derby!  The Friday racing started with the opener at Monmouth where I was a little leery of Apache Queen coming right back to win after he'd won for me at a big price a month ago.  But he looked like the lone speed with Paco Lopez.  Pressed a 6/1 to the stretch, forged to the lead and then the second choice rallied by and drew off by nearly a pole....second.  The opener at Saratoga was the Funny Cide for two-year-olds.  Todd Pletcher's Syndergaard was the morning line favorite at a short 6/5.  He ran to his $450K OBS sales price when he whistled his debut MSW rivals at 4/5.  A best of 32 bullet work said he would be tough to beat.  Right to the front and when the second choice made his move jockey John Velazquez opened him up and he drew off with authority, winning by double digit lengths.  A nice way to start off the day's stakes-laden card!  

My pick in the second at Monmouth scratched leaving my second choice as the lone speed and he wired the field at 1/9 odds, I didn't bet.  The 2nd at the Spa was a MSW for 2yo on the turf and Chad Brown's Super Mama went off at 2/1, but was a dull 7th for me.  Back to Jersey where Wolfie looked much the best in a claiming turf sprint.  The crowd though so and sent him off as a prohibitive 3/5 favorite - only 2nd best.  The fifth at Saratoga was The Albany going nine furlongs.  I was unsure if the favorite Hit It Once More could wire the field and get this distance for the first time.  But if he ran to his form - he'd been MUCH the best in all three starts against NY-breds - he'd be a decisive winner.  Enough confidence to bet, not enough to go added money.  Right to the front as the 4/5 favorite and never looked back giving me my second stakes winner of the day!  

In the 6th at Monmouth I was again faced with what looked like a solid play but he'd won last time out for me.  Typically it's difficult for claiming level runners to run that consistently.  But it appeared that Exclusive Strike would be a sharp winner over all of today's rivals with one exception, Aripeka.  That one just 18 months ago had been 2nd in a Grade 1 event, but was now in for a mere $12K after a single win over that time period.  It came down to the two of them in mid-stretch and Aripeka just edged my choice in deep stretch, 2nd again on the Jersey Shore.  Next up, about an hour later was the 7th at Saratoga, the Seeking the Ante Stakes for 2yo fillies.  Iron Mizz had started in three straight turf sprints with her most recent coming in a stakes race at Monmouth behind a Wesley Ward filly who'd exited a Group stakes at Royal Ascot (and was my pick that day).  If she could run on the dirt she had a big chance I thought.  She sat just off the dueling duo to the stretch, moved three wide and wore them down to win!  My THIRD STAKES winner at Saratoga, and the best part was the price!  

She paid a generous $8.60 so my minimum play was good for well over $20!  Minutes later I finally got a winner at Monmouth when It's A Given was sent off as the 4/5 favorite in a claiming event on the turf going a mile.  He had run three races at Belmont that would win here.  I liked the fact that he had a sharp workout that apparently came with his blinkers off.  He pressed the leaders to the turn, straightened for the sprint for home and drew off to justify his short odds for my fourth winner on the day!  

I had two last plays at Saratoga, but I only had a play in the 8th, the Yaddo Stakes if Fourstar Creek could get into the field off the "Also-Eligible" list.  If she drew in the only thing standing between her and a victory, I thought, was the wide draw.  Javier Castellano for Chad Brown on a filly that not once but TWICE had beaten OPEN company and earned back-to-back 90+ figures in her last two starts.  I thought there was a good chance she'd get in because Brown had another in the main body, but as that turned out that one stayed in the race but three others scratched out letting my pick in.  Castellano allowed her to settle mid-pack and quickly got an inside trip to the far turn.  She was swung out five wide into the clear as heads turned for home and hit her best stride.  Five fillies were across the track at the 1/8th pole before Fourstar Crook forged to the front then dug in to hold on for the win - my FOURTH stakes winner at Saratoga today - wow, what a day.  And like Iron Mizz, this one was also a very nice price!  

I had doubled the bet and was rewarded with over $30 being deposited into my account!  I was hoping for a big win to end the day in the West Point but Offering Point was a close third at 2/1.  So for the day I finished a really good five for nine with a solid profit on the day!  Tomorrow is a big day with Brad & Lauren bringing baby Oliver home and it's Travers Day at Saratoga!

August 21-22

WIN Early - Struggle Most Of The Day

After just an "OK" Saturday I was hopeful that Sunday would bring a return to regular winning selections.  And it could not have gotten off to a better start, though not without a great story!  I had read online about a week ago that Wesley Ward had a two-year-old who had won her debut at Keeneland and then had run away with a Grade 2 at Royal Ascot.  The filly's name was Lady Aurelia, She had been my top choice in mid-April but had scratched out and her stable mate had won for me, then on April 21st she debuted as my "prime time" selection and set a track record as much the best.  Then it was off to merry, ole' England where she romped at Royal Ascot.  The article I read recently quoted more than European horseman saying that she was the best two-year-old in Europe, of either sex!  And a follow-up article said she would be running on August 21st (which would be the morning of August 22nd here) in a Group 1 event in France where she would face another unbeaten filly from the Aidan O'Brien barn.  Then this week on Thursday I read that the O'Brien filly was being re-routed to another spot which meant, I thought, that Lady Aurelia was a layover.  The question was, could I make the bet?  So yesterday while playing the races I looked at the European tracks and there was Deauville.  Ok, I'm in!  Now, to find out some info about the field and when the race will be run.  It took me about fifteen minutes of searching before finally finding that Lady Aurelia was scheduled to run against four other fillies in the 4th race, the Group 1 Prix Morny, going six furlongs with a 9:45 am start time.  The sprint would go six furlongs over the straight course and she was listed as the 1/2 favorite.  I added her to my selection sheet for the day and set my alarm for 9:15 as a reminder.  So, about 9 am today I got online and uh oh - NO DEAUVILLE track was listed!  What's going on?  It was here yesterday!  I remembered from playing some international races in the past that often the international feed is listed under one track and they bop around from one venue to another so I went through the cards of the tracks being offered.  Nope, no Lady Aurelia.  OK, I'll play the race on Twinspires.  Logged in and the same thing - no Deauville racecourse!  Seriously, am I not going to get to play the race?  I went back to Xpressbet and started looking around.  I discovered that there is a "Calendar" button at the top, but it is NOT visible unless you are currently in a "program view" of a current track.  So while looking, again, at the current international slate I found this button and clicked it.  Ok, the race is listed.  I tried clicking it and voila!  The screen changed to Deauville and the program appeared.  It was currently fifteen minutes to race three.  I switched to race 4 and there she was.  WHOOO HOOOO!  Way to stick with it Mr. Mark!  So I clicked the video button and oh no, the window that appeared said "the video for this race is not available."  Now this could mean that they were only showing the big race, unlikely, or they weren't getting the video feed.  Would I not be able to watch?  I found this odd because I had easily made the bet.  So I set out to find live feed from Deauville.  It took me over ten minutes but I finally found a site using the Google search that had a live feed, with French announcers - that was very interesting - and I looked to be in.  The third went off and it was quite unusual - it was a harness race, on the grass!  Finally it was post time for the featured Group 1 Prix Morny.  I was reminded as they loaded of the odd way the international races do the numbering.  While Lady Aurelia was wearing the #5 saddle cloth she was in the third gate from the inside.  The gates burst open and jockey Frankie Deterrori shot right to the front with the highly regarded filly.  With no splits available and it being on a straight course you had no idea how far they'd gone or how far they had to go.  But knowing that fast sprints on the grass will typically earn a pace figure of :45 or less I could tell when they were two furlongs from home, and then you could tell that all the riders were now vigorously pushing their fillies for the sprint to the wire.  I was comfortably in front by about two lengths but two others were beginning to make up ground.  It didn't look like Lady Aurelia was going to give that impressive kick to draw off, so now the desperate race to the wire was ON!  They were getting closer with a furlong out and the camera angle switched to a higher view so now the finish line was in view.  It looked like I was home free and she crossed under the wire with a diminishing length margin.  

She had been a "BET of the Day" with a $50 (US dollars) to win and she paid a nice $2.60 allowing me to start the day with a $65 return for a profit of $15!  But it was a great story and a great race!

When the racing re-started about 1 pm I was right back in the winners' circle with the opener from Monmouth.  Mystery Solved wired a maiden claiming sprint going 5 1/2 furlongs as a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Jason Servis and jockey Nik Juarez.  Not only a "club play," but the move from turf to dirt is a 47% angle for the barn AND he was moving from MSW into a claimer for the first time....BANG!  Easily.  But as great as the day started off I was destined to only cash on one more selection today.  I played the 2nd from Woodbine where they had a huge stakes-laden card but I didn't like any of those.  But Jim Bannon's BEST was here in a maiden claiming seven furlong event.  Cape Mist went off at 3/5 and was an even third.  At Saratoga Thunderonthenile rallied at 6/1 to be a non-threatening 5th in a MSW for 2yo on the turf and in the 4th at the Spa Idiosyncratic was 4th and her stable mate was 2nd at 6/5 as a Chad Brown entry going a mile and a sixteenth in an entry level turf allowance.  At Monmouth Fahan Mura rallied belatedly at 4/1 to be fifth and then Bella Postiere was a troubled 6th as the 4/5 favorite in an entry level turf event.  Paco Lopez had I'm Steppin Up pressing the pace in the 7th at 2/1 then stopped badly, then was eased under the wire......wow.  Back to Saratoga in another 2yo MSW turf event where Okinawa for Chad Brown was a fading 6th after pressing the early pace at 2/1.  Finally, a winner in the featured Grade 3 Cliffhanger at Monmouth.  Can'tstopbelieving was sent out by trainer Graham Motion with jockey Trevor McCarthy and these two had won a graded Sunday feature on the turf for me a couple of weeks ago, so immediately I was interested.  Then as I went through the field and scanned the Beyer speed figures I discovered he held a DOUBLE BEYER advantage.  I counted them up and of the 138 combined races run by his rivals there was a single figure that might challenge him.  He looked solid.  Add in the fact that 'Believing's numbers were earned in a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 and now he was dropping in class - it's "prime time" pal!  He got a great ride by McCarthy as he sat near the back to the turn then moved up to third.  McCarthy threaded he was between runners on the turn then edged out into the clear turning for home and once the horse saw daylight he exploded and ran to his numbers as MUCH the best. 

The generous 9/5 price allowed me to cash for nearly $60!  With this big score and my "BET of the Day" up next I thought I was going to end up having a nice day.  Next up was the Grade 2 Lake Placid from Saratoga where Catch A Glimpse looked to bury these.  Not only was she unbeaten on the turf and a multiple Grade 1 winner, but she'd already beaten the most likely challenger last time and that one was a closer and today's race was shorter.  AND Catch A Glimpse looked to be loose on the lead!  I thought the 3/5 price was very generous and as they hit the far turn she was cruising.  I thought jockey John Velazquez on the challenger, Time and Motion, rode very cleverly as he pressed Catch A Glimpse rather than letting her get a big lead.  But as they turned for home Catch a Glimpse hit another gear and opened up.  I knew we were home free.....but then Time and Motion responded and they were head to head inside the final sixteenth.......

caught.....sigh.  Didn't see that coming.  So for the day I was an average 27%, again (3-for-11) and because of the late loss by Catch A Glimpse I finished in the red for the day.

August 22:  Monday Racing At The Spa
Today was the first day of school for students and I had the house to myself as I got back into full "retirement mode."  I had a list of things to do but as I was out picking up a light-weight jacket for my October solo trip to France it occurred to me that there was racing at Saratoga and I had time to handicap the card and maybe make a few selections.  I finished handicapping the card as the horses left the paddock and got onto the track for the opener.  I found seven races to play and won with two of them......Darling in the 4th surged to the lead inside the 16th pole and then held off the late charge from Javier Castellano's runner to win and got me back nearly $30. 

Then in the 6th I scored when Weekend Hideaway saved all the ground to the stretch, edged off the rail and wore down the long time leader in a no-conditions allowance race that featured several stakes placed runners. 

Cashed for nearly $30 again.  But much like Sunday, the chance at a 30% plus winning day and a profit slipped away in the last race on my sheet. Eskenformoney had just missed in a Grade 3 at Monmouth  last time out and was in the listed Summer Colony today.  Her last two speed figures were the best two figures of every LIFETIME figure earned by her rivals with one exception and that had been eared on the turf.  I thought that more than offset the fact that I wondered if Todd Pletcher's filly could get the nine furlongs today.  Javier Castellano on board sealed the deal.  She sat in a perfect tracking spot to the turn, then nothing.  Flattened out to run evenly and was beaten by a pole.  Sigh.......

August 19-20

Pacific Classic / Alabama Stakes Weekend

After a winless Friday at the Shore, I had high hopes for Saturday.  And once I had finished handicapping for Saturday it was obvious that the vast majority of the "good" races would be run after 5 pm, so it seemed to make little sense to go out to the races today since I'd be watching those online.  So I spent the day at the computer.  While I had some excellent wins, overall it was a l-o-n-g day of watching for a less than typical winning day of racing.  It didn't help the cause what-so-ever that I went 1-for-5 at Monmouth where I've had pretty good success all summer long, but extended the bad luck on the Shore to one win for thirteen selections dating back to last weekend.  Much like Friday it seemed with the substitute announcer for the weekend, it was "upset weekend."  By the end of today, the twelve selections I'd made at Monmouth produced upset winners - that obviously were not mine.  Four of the winners on Friday in races I bet produced these results:  $49.60, $26.80, $27.40, and $52.80 - so it's not like they were "price" horses that figured to have a chance, no they were "bombs away" kind of upsets.  The same continued on Saturday with three more big bombs of $16.40, $27.20, and $29.40.  You just have to figure that by the end of the month, and the end of the summer it will all event out.  So here's a look at the good things that happened on Saturday.

I got the lone win at Monmouth in the third selection of the day, their third race which was a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint for claimers.  Stress Test was sent out by top trainer Jorge Navarro with current go-to rider Jose Ferrer.  The drop from allowance company to this claiming spot said he should be flying early.  My lone concern was that the best figures on the page for Stress Test were in off-the-turf events.  But he was sent right to the front and coasted home as the 4/5 favorite.  

I missed on the next four races spanning 2 1/2 hours at my desk before we arrived at the 7th at Saratoga.  When I handicapped the Saratoga card I knew that the BET of the Day would come in the Alabama with the return of champion Songbird, the only question there was how much to wager.  But here was my Saratoga "best" other than that one.  Trainer Chad Brown has been really hot all summer with his runners, especially his turf horses and his 2yo maidens.  So when I found Favorable Outcome running in this six furlong MSW sprint for two-year-old fillies she was the bet.  I checked to see what DRF handicapper Mike Beer thought of the race and it proved why you need to always use ALL your resources when handicapping.  One thing I'd noted in the past performances was that the connections had thought highly of Favorable Outcome when she drew a winning $300K bid at the OBS sales.  But Beer noted that it was her sizzling work in :21 flat prior to the sale that earned that big bid.  She obviously is quick and has talent!  At the beginning of the day I was listening to Gabby Gaudet and Andy Serling analyzing the card and when they came to the 7th they spent a lot of time talking about a filly I'd seen in the field that drew a curious glace from me, and that was Seven Forty Seven.  Why?  Well, this filly had been shipped in from her Chicago base at Arlington by trainer Ingrid Mason to run here.  I thought that could be significant because typically runners at Arlington are a cut below those at Saratoga, especially with the highly regarded 2-year-olds that run here each summer.  Secondly, like all horses based in Chicago, Seven Forty Seven had the disadvantage of having been prepared over the Arlington synthetic surface and would run today on the "real dirt" at the Spa.  And finally, even with most older, experienced stakes horses shipping to another track can be an issue to consider - much less with a first-time starting two-year-old filly.  So to me, either this filly was REALLY special or this was a case of the connections THINKING their filly was good enough to try the Saratoga runners.  I've seen many a top flight Calder two-year-old come up here and get their hat handed to them.  Without any sizzling works or connections to "wow" me, that horse was a toss for me.  But Serling and Gaudet talked a lot about her and even remarked that they expected her to go off in the neighborhood of 3/1 or so despite the program price of 20/1.  When the betting opened not only was Seven Forty Seven taking money, but she was getting absolutely hammered as an odds-on favorite.  Was I that wrong?  Typically when debut two-year-olds are being pounded like that it's often a sign that they are the real deal.  Throw into the mix of the story that at this point I'm coming off an 0-for-6 day on Friday and I've cashed one ticket today (1-for-7) with a 4/5 horse.  And now my "prime time/best" bet is floating up at 3/1 or better.  Maybe I am wrong?  I was just either so off or going to be rewarded.  I took a deep breath and thought, you know what?  I'm as good as any handicapper and I not only didn't like that horse, I didn't list her in my top three.  I'm sticking to my guns!  When they broke from the gate Seven Forty Seven was the 7/5 favorite and was sitting pretty with a clear trip three off the rail into the turn while fourth behind dueling pace setters.  Meanwhile my filly, Favorable Outcome has between horses just inside of Seven Forty Seven as they moved through the turn.  We're about to find out I thought.  And just them Favorable Outcome moved with Seven Forty Seven towards the leaders.  But as they straightened for home the favorite just faded while Favorable Outcome set sail for the winner, opening up with every stride...... 

She drew off farther and farther leaving the field in her wake earning this tweet from track announcer Larry Colmus:  

WOW - what a performance!  And the best, THE BEST news was that not only did she go off at a HUGE 7/2 price on the board, but the payoff was nearly 4/1......$9.90 meaning that for my $20 investment I'd be getting back $99!  WHAT A GREAT PICK!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  

Now we are back in the ball game my friends!  Next on my selection sheet was the opener from Del Mar where the Pacific Classic Day card featured three big graded stakes, but I'd found eight races worthy of an investment.  In the opener I liked Glacken Too.  He was listed at 6/1 in the program despite the fact he was dropping in for a $25K tag aver beating second level allowance company two back and wa third at odds of 25/1 in the Grade 3 Santa Anita Sprint last fall.  Either this is a fire sale, or he simply too good for these.  He stalked into the stretch inside, came out, split horses in mid-stretch and edged clear late to win as the mild 8/5 favorite.  

Unfortunately I'd only bet the minimum.  I was a close third in a 3-way photo finish in the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks where I went with the 9/5 Pletcher 2nd choice at post time, beaten the the third choice in the wagering - the "other" Pletcher with Paco Lopez which paid $7.....sigh.  Picked up next win the the third at Del Mar - after having passed the second - when Perfectly Majestic was DEAD LAST on the turn but was perfectly timed to be JUST UP IN TIME in a second level allowance on the turf.  But again, the bet was the minimum.  

Would have helped the bottom line for the day if those had at least been double investments.  The Del Mar race was no longer official when it was time to make a decision on Songbird.  Clearly she was the most likely winner, and clearly going to be a "big bet."  But if you were looking to beat her maybe today was the day......first of all, in her most recent, an authoritative win here in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, she'd gone nine furlongs for the first time, but more importantly she'd been challenged for the first time.  I'd read where jockey Mike Smith remarked about how the humidity had really affected her - so different from So Cal weather; and I'd read that following the race, for the first time ever, she'd been "blowing" hard - obviously she'd had to work.  So coming off of a big effort and now today being asked to go a mile and a quarter, was she vulnerable?  I didn't think so because she'd worked sensationally for this and more importantly she appeared to be the LONE speed.  The only concern was if one of the NY riders said, "I'm not winning, I know this, but I'm going to the lead and you aren't going to win either" forcing Songbird to duel through fast fractions making her vulnerable at today's long, classic distance.  But I didn't see anyone who could do that.  The second choice in the wagering was Dale Romans' filly, Go Maggie Go who'd won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks and the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan (as my pick!).  She figured to be up close, but not on the lead.  But instead she was gunned to the front and Songbird was right there with her to the outside.  I knew Songbird would outrun her in the end, but when the fractions came up - :23.3 and :47.3 - I was concerned.  Those are quick fractions for even a mile and an eighth, but even more so if you are dueling AND going a mile and a quarter - especially for the first time.  A little touch of concern as the riders of the stalkers asked their fillies to make a move on Songbird as they spun into the stretch.......

Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith barely moved as he let the champion out a notch and kissed the field good-bye!  WOW - just how good is this filly?  She went off at what I'd say were fair odds considering the situation and paid $2.40.  

My BET of the Day investment would get me back $120 and I'll take a $20 profit on this champion!  Ben's Cat disappointed in his try to win the Mister Diz for the 7th consecutive time when running evenly at 3/5 despite being back on his favorite course; missed three times at Del Mar and in the finale at Saratoga.  The only good thing about the Spa race was that my pick, Converge, had been my "BET of the Day" last Saturday before the race got washed off.  But in this 2nd level turf allowance had come up tougher I thought and so I backed down on the bet.  Considered re-upping the investment when both Gaudet and Serling sung the praises of Converge, but I stuck with it and she was only third at even money.  I got my final win of the day in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap when Gary Stevens took Ashleyluvssugar right to the front and opened up nearly a dozen lengths down the backside in a marathon 1 3/8th mile turf race, a la Precious Passion.  As they spun through the turn here they came!  With each stride they late runners were getting two steps in for every one for my pick but at the wire she had just enough to hold on!  WHEW!  

But again, for the third time today in as many wins at Del Mar, it was only a minimum play.  The race of the day was the Grade 1 $1 Million Pacific Classic and I thought that Beholder had an excellent chance to win at a more-than-fair price.  But when Dortmund, a front-runner, did NOT go to the front it let California Chrome loose on the lead.  Still, at a big 3/1 Beholder made her move into the stretch......

But Chrome justified everyone's opinion that he's currently the best older horse in the world as he won for fun without ever being asked.  The day will be remembered by me for the big win with the Chad Brown first timer, Favorable Outcome and the HUGE win by Songbird.  But with Beholder losing, and really not really testing California Chrome this leads to this interesting situation.......last year after winning this race Beholder was ready to face off against the boys in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic against American Pharoah.  Well, it's clear that's not going to be the plan to take on California Chrome again.  So she'd run in the comparable race for fillies & mares, the Grade 1 Distaff - but guess who else is heading that way.....undefeated Songbird.  WOW that would be a race to see!

August 18

Special Thursday Racing From The Spa!

I don't really have a reason other than I wanted to, and since I'm retired I pretty much do what ever I want to do!  But at any rate, today I decided to add an additional day of racing to my week by handicapping the Thursday Saratoga card.  And after looking through the local newspaper I discovered another play at Gulfstream, and a "prime time" investment at that!  As I went through the races at Saratoga I found five of the ten to have runners I felt I had an advantage with.  In the second I thought Shadow Rider was worth the minimum play as he was the lone runner who'd never raced in conditioned company and this was a non-winners or three lifetime sprint.  Sent off as the 8/5 favorite he was near the back at the start, through the turn, and down the stretch.  In the third it was a MSW for older and I commented that were it not for the fact that Breaking Bread was coming off of a layoff from last October, she'd be the BET of the Day.  In that October debut she'd run second behind Carnina Mia who exited that race to win a Grade 2 event, then won the Grade 3 Eight Belles in dominant fashion; and off of that had run away from the Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia to win the Grade 1 Acorn - all as my top choice I might add :)  So that was high praise for the quality of Breaking Bread.  She stalked a sizzling :44 and change pace into the stretch, engaged the winner to the 16th pole and drew clear late.  

She went off as the 7/5 favorite, but I'd doubled the play so I cashed for nearly $25.  In the sixth it was a MSW for two-year-olds and I liked the program favorite from the Todd Pletcher barn, #3 Ethan Hunt.  He'd was second in his debut and came back in a STAKES race to be a best-of-the-rest second.  The obvious play under Javier Castellano.  But when I began watching the live feed, the #8 was the heavy 4/5 favorite from the Chad Brown barn.  I gave brief consideration to switching as Ethan Hunt was all the way up to 7/2 odds.  Somebody gave this Brown filly a HUGE chance!  I decided to stick with the play and the favorite DOMINATED the race.  Ethan Hunt was clearly the best of the rest of the juveniles, but there was no denying the filly that won, Mirai may be something special.  Right back in the 7th where this entry level allowance was a rescheduled running of an event that was cancelled on Saturday at Saratoga when the weather wiped out the second half of the program.  I had liked Malibu Stacy then, and I was a fan today.  Malibu Stacy had won her maiden two back, and was entered in the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes in her most recent.  She came from off the pace and just missed when second behind the 4/5 favorite, unbeaten Coppa who'd flown in from Southern California to win that event on the Belmont undercard.  The only issue was that as an off-the-pace runner Malibu Stacy could be subject to the pace flow which did NOT look to have a lot of speed signed on.  But with the probable early speed coming from a last-out maiden winner (a Pletcher filly who'd broken her maiden at Monmouth, telling me she was a notch below "Saratoga quality") I thought she'd be fine.  Malibu Stacy sat a little closer to the lead than I anticipated, swung out four wide into the stretch to wear down the leaders and edged clear through the final furlong.  

She represented my "best" of the day as I tripled the bet and received nearly $40 for the play.  Moments after this race it was time for the 8th at Gulfstream.  What had actually caught my eye in the paper was that in the finale, a $10K maiden claiming event, there was a horse LISTED as the 3/5 favorite.  Any horse listed at THAT short of a price in the program is a near certain winner, but in a maiden claiming event for a meager $10K?  I needed to check out Ron Nicoletti's analysis.  I also had noted that in the 8th race there was a horse listed at 6/5, which is also a next-to-never situation.  Nicoletti listed both on top, but his remarks about the finale sounded less than enthusiastic while his top pick of Lirica in the 8th race were glowing.  So much so she was his "BEST BET."  I signed on at the beginning of the day and made a bet.  When I flipped video feeds Lirica was 1/9 in the betting and Nicoletti was raving about how she'd been second last time out to a stakes winner who'd come back since to win a second stakes.  I decided to up the bet and added another $15 to the bet to make her the "BEST of the Day."  On the turn she was in a stalking position and looked to be struggling to get going, but as they spun out of the turn she began to gather momentum and as she straightened at the furlong pole she was in full flight to the wire and won going away!  

Cashed for another $35 as her odds floated up to 2/5 at post time!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  The last investment of the day came on Mosler in an allowance/no conditions turf sprint.  He was 4/5 and while you could make the excuse that as he was rallying he was crowded for quite some time through the stretch I don't think he'd ever have won the race.  But, for the day I was an outstanding 3-for-6 and made a solid profit of more than $20 :)

August 17

Wednesday Night Racing Returns

After a week away from Wednesday Night Racing at Woodbine, we were back under the lights tonight.  I also had two selections from Presque Isle Downs in Erie.  That's where the first selection was running - Lucky Leroy Brown in a nw3L one mile event.  Sent off at 9/5 second choice he sat off the pace to the far turn, then continued on evenly to the wire, sixth.  The second at Woodbine would make the night a HUGE night if this Woodbine 40% Club play come score.  Beaver Trapper was 15/1 in the program but second off the shelf for trainer Justin Nixon made him a club play.  He was 24/1 at post time and seemed waiting to make his move to the turn, but then like the PID pick, ran evenly to the wire, sixth again.  I got my first win of the night in Presque Isle's 6th.  It looked to me like this multiple winner over the Erie track would sit just off the pace to the far turn, then blow by his rivals to score again.......

The race unfolded EXACTLY as I'd seen it!  He was 3/2 with ten minutes to post, then floated all the way up to 2/1 as they went through the post parade.  Back to 3/2 as they approached the gate; even money as they left the gate and 4/5 as he crossed the finish line, so I only collected a little under $20 instead of what could have been a $30 payoff.  My "best" bet of the night was next at Woodbine and Kitten Candy floated all the way up to 7/2.  I thought either I am way off or the crowd is giving me a nice gift.  I was off - showed nothing all the way around the track.  In the Presque Isle 8th my pick was #5 Sally Oh Sally.  She was entered in a Tuesday race identical to this, but scratched to run here which I saw as a positive sign.  I found it ironic and I am pretty certain that this was a "first" in over 18,000 race selections over the last ten plus years.  When I was a sophomore in college I went to the 100th running of the Kentucky Derby.  That year at Miami I was dating a girl named Sally Bryan.  My favorite number has always been "5."  And lo and behold at the Derby, the #5 horse was Flip Sal!  Duh, that was the bet.  Pulled up and eased out of the Derby :(  But with tonight's race here was another #5 with a horse named Sally.  I messaged my Facebook pal and told her my story for this evening's pick.  She was sent off as the 8/5 second choice.  As they rounded the turn the 6/5 favorite stayed behind horses waiting for a seam while my rider took Sally outside some six wide for a clear run.  A hole opened up and the favorite got through.  Sally was second best with the difference being the trip.  In the sixth at Woodbine it was a claiming event going 8 1/2 furlongs and it just seemed to me that Divine Sonnet was way too obvious.  The 5yo was getting his best distance (9/3-3-3) and last time out was a neck short behind a stakes winner in a starter allowance.  Sent off as the 6/5 favorite he set the pace while under mild pressure.  The fractions were soft - :25 and change, :51 and change so I knew I had plenty left for the drive.  But as they swung through the turn two rivals came to him.  Asked for more they battled through the stretch in a thrilling race........PHOTO FINISH! 

It was officially a photo but I was certain I'd hung on for my second win of the night.  Cashed for just shy of $25.  I passed the 7th at Woodbine and ironically in the three previous races where I'd passed I'd named a top choice and they ALL WON.  Wow......In the eighth I thought Snow Legacy had a chance in spite of the bar being 0-for-13 with last out winners.  It was the DRF handicapper's BEST of the night.  Snow had a pace advantage and was dropping out of allowance company with a smoking five furlong bullet work.  Pressed the 15/1 leader into the stretch, you know I'll run by him, but could never catch him, faded to third late.  For the night a decent 2-for-6 and 33% win average.  I decided to play Saratoga tomorrow in a "bonus day" of racing for the week!

August 14

Sunday Results

The end of the week and I found myself having the same kind of thoughts that typically follows a big day of Saturday racing, that is "will the Sunday racing dampen the enthusiasm for a big day on Saturday."  I only mention this because for the first time that I can ever remember I had a new thought......why don't I look forward to Sunday racing and hope that Saturday doesn't spoil my Sunday!  Regardless, I only played Monmouth today and from the ten races I had seven original selections, reduced to six with a scratch in the 8th of my upset choice.  I passed the first and in the second my pick Memories of Winter went right to the lead and was clear into the stretch.  My heart was pounding because I'd doubled the bet on this selection and he was running towards the wire at a HUGE 10/1 price!  In deep stretch he was caught by the 6/5 favorite, 2nd....but what a thrill to start the day!  I had my BEST of the Day in the third with Legend of Lorelei.  Check out my analysis:  

Sent off as the short 4/5 choice she was well back into the far turn and was still had a LOT of work to do turning for home, but then she found a whole other gear and was FLYING under a perfectly timed ride by Paco Lopez to be up in time.  

Cashed for nearly $40 and I was off and running on the day.  I loved Just Sisters in the next race and so did the crowd at 3/5.  But when she was shuffled back entering the turn you could see Paco Lopez just quit riding.  Not that she would have won, but he didn't give her any chance whatsoever.  In the fifth I planned to triple the bet on 1a Shaft of Light who was sent out by Jorge Navarro, the top trainer of the meet.  The entry mate, Defer Heaven I'd seen several times at Gulfstream and had won with him in his first start here on the Jersey Shore.  But his last two had been obvious regressions AND there was other speed to compromise his chances I thought.  I wrote in my analysis that I'd pass the race if Shaft of Light scratched out, but I was pretty sure they'd both run as two different jockeys were named to ride.  But at the beginning of the day it was announced that Shaft of Light was out of the fifth.  I went into my wagers (I'd made all of them early) and cancelled the bet.  Fast forward to the fifth.  As I was working online I had the Monmouth live feed running and analyst Mike Currci came on to preview his Pick-4 ticket.  He started with this fifth race and he - who rarely goes with the favorite, especially at a short price - named Defer Heaven as the OBVIOUS choice and he was going to SINGLE that guy on his ticket.  Really?  He's that confident?  Well, who am I to think the top trainer doesn't know which of his two horses has the best chance to win and especially when one respected handicapper makes that horse his Pick-4 SINGLE!  So I entered the bet again.  Defer Heaven floated up to 2/5 at post time and as soon as the gates opened he rocketed to the front.  In control and never threatened in an easy wire-to-wire romp!  

The original plan had been to triple the bet on Shaft of Light and when I re-entered the bet I did the same on Defer Heaven.  WHOOO HOOO!  That was it for the day as I ran 4th with both of my last two choices to finish 2-for-6 on the day.  For the week I was 48/14-8-6, 29% which is OK, but not what I'm used to for sure.

Tomorrow, Monday August 15th is the first day that teachers go back to school and it marks the official end of five complete years of retirement.  So I made and will post a video highlight of many of the FORTY trips I've taken over the last five years.  Enjoy......

Five Year Retirement Highlights

August 13 AP Million Day

I always love Arlington Million Day and it seems like it typically is a very good day of handicapping as well as a highlight of the summer.  I headed out to Gulfstream with a seat in the Silks Simulcast Center reserved and selections at five tracks:  Arlington, Gulfstream, Monmouth, Saratoga, and Woodbine.  The day could not have started off any better as I won the first three races on the selection sheet!  In the Monmouth opener Goodnewsiwthatwist looked best in a claiming sprint.  I liked that top rider Paco Lopez was on and he would sit off what I thought would be a contested pace.  Instead Lopez popped him right out of the gate to the lead and never looked back as the easiest kind of winner. 

I had tripled the bet, but he was only 1/5 at post time.  I came right back in the Saratoga opener, a non-winners of two lifetime and there was a Pletcher runner - very uncharacteristic that he'd have a claimer, especially in conditioned company.  Just as odd that this dirt sprinter was owned by top turf owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey!  Baby Bear's Soup went off at a fair 8/5 for his first try for a tag but immediately hesitated out of the gate to be last.  Jockey John Velazquez allowed him to settle quickly and he moved up to third before they hit the far turn.  At the top of the lane he engaged the leader and now we'd find out how much energy he had used up to recover from the bad start.  Apparently not very much as he blew by to score emphatically! 

They had not longer crossed the finish at the Spa than they were loading in the gate outside for Gulfstream's second.  Hy Riverside looked much the best on paper as only one of the 56 races run over the last two years collectively by his rivals would beat any of his last THREE speed figures.  But as they approached the far turn the favorite was well back.  Heads turned for home and he rallied furiously and blew by just as they ran past me standing along the rail! 

But then I hit a dry patch where I ran 2nd twice and third (at Woodbine, Saratoga, and Monmouth) and then was off the board in four straight.....fortunately only two were added investments.  In the 4th at Woodbine it was their feature, the Flaming Page carded at a mile and a half on the turf.  But it had started raining and this race came off the grass.  Stick with the pick on the all-weather synthetic which often plays like grass?  In the end I said yes and Goodyearforroses was easily best.  Patiently handled to the far turn he glided up and took over once asked to run in the lane. 

Rallied too late at a big 8/1 at Gulfstream (fifth) and then was third in a four-horse field at 3/5 with my "best" at Monmouth - disappointing.  Racing at Saratoga had been delayed before the running of the fourth as it was just POURING down rain there.  I worried about the later turf races and sure enough my "best" of the day was taken off.  Sigh....I won my second race at Saratoga in their fifth, a Maiden Special sprint for two-year-olds.  At Saratoga with 2yo maidens, just like 3yo maidens at Gulfstream in the winter, the question is always first - is there a Pletcher runner?  Of the Pletcher juveniles it's always good to find a runner that is owned by Michael Repole who (a) is a big client of Pletcher's and (b) has made no secret that he loves to see his horses win in New York, especially at Saratoga.  When a Repole runner is trained by Todd Pletcher, the "go-to" rider is typically John Velazquez.  Sure enough there was Thirst For Victory - Pletcher/Repole/Velazquez.  End of handicapping!  He broke slowly but recovered quickly to move into second before they were through the far turn.  How much had the recovery cost him was now the question as they splashed home.  He surged at the 16th pole to win going away! 

I had doubled the bet (after initially planning to only go in on the minimum) and collected nearly $30.  WHOOO HOOO.  In the 8th at Gulfstream Snack Shack was cruising along uncontested on an easy lead in a Maiden Claiming turf sprint into the lane, then was inhaled to finish fourth as the 9/5 favorite.  Next was the first of the five big graded stakes at Arlington, the Grade 3 American St. Leger.  I typically win several of the big turf races on this signature day by keying in on the foreign runners.  And I was about to do that here, but the more I looked at the field the more obvious it was that the best North American horse in the field, was simply the best in the field, even if he was the program favorite - Da Big Hoss.  He was well played at the windows and as I considered the investment I decided to up the ante to a "prime time" play.  He sat patiently in fifth to the far turn for jockey Florent Geroux, cruised up easily while four wide and then sprinted home as easily the best! 

The 4/5 post time odds allowed me to cash for nearly $60!  I walked up onto the balcony walk-way at Gulfstream to video the race recap for this big win and as I walked back into the breezeway my attention was caught by the big screen broadcast from Saratoga: 

Bummer, that meant I lost out on some good wagering opportunities.  But it did allow me to head for home about an hour earlier.  The feature at Monmouth was next and Paco Lopez was on Run For Logistics for Eddie Plesa.  He pressed the pace in perfect position turning for home but never made up any ground on the wire-to-wire winner, my second choice.  Next was the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington and I thought that Long Island Sound would out run Beach Patrol despite having finished behind that one in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby last time out.  But that was his first start in North America and I expected an improved effort.  They hooked up at the top of the lane and it was a thrilling photo finish.....

That's me on the inside, sigh.....second at a very fair 3/1 price.  The tenth at Gulfstream was next, an allowance event on the turf and it was my "best" locally.  Amigo had been 4th in the Sunshine Millions Turf and third in the Grade 3 Tropical TUrf Handicap despite being steadied and checked.  He laid over this entry level field.  Cruised to the lead turning for home but like so many others this week, was nailed in a photo finish.  The eighth at Arlington was my BET of the Day, the Grade 1 Beverly D from Arlington.  Sea Calisi was my second North American runner today over the preferred Euros.  But not only did she look best to me but several articles I read preceding today's big event was that she was a logical "single" in the All-Stakes Pick 4 wager.  Loved that she was owned by Martin Schwartz and trained by Chad Brown - they have taken many Euros and turned them into North American graded stakes winners, and Sea Calisi had started her career in Europe before coming over here with two show placings in Group 1 company.  She won the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay and nailed late in the Grade 2 New York by stable mate Dacita.....who, if you follow my adventures, was my top pick in her most recent, the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga where she won at a big price.  Sea Calisi's stable mate set a hot pace into the far turn while Geroux had her settled near the back.  She blew by the field through the turn and opened up to win in a strong performance.  I had decided when I made the wager to up the ante from the planned "all in" $50 to a full $75 bet. 

She was a prohibitive 1/5 in the early betting but floated all the way up to 4/5 at post time.  And as she crossed the line somehow the crowd let her go off at better than even money!  The $4.20 payoff allowed me to cash for nearly $160!  As I headed out to film the clip for this my phone rang and it was Jeff calling from Kansas where they'd just got off the practice field.  He said he just wanted to thank me as he got online and checked my picks, then bet $50 to win on Sea Calisi.  For the featured Arlington Million I could not find anyone that I loved - but I was strictly against the top four betting favorites.  I was intrigued that several online handicappers selected the upset with Woodbine Mile winner Mondaliste, but I didn't think he could get the distance.  I went with Take The Stand at a big 15/1 who I thought could wire the field.  Sure enough as they turned for home Edgar Prado had him in front and he was clear by daylight.  My heart was pounding because this could be a huge score for me, over $150!  But the closers got to him at the 16th pole and the thrill was over....ironically it WAS Mondaliste at $10.40 who was just in front on the wire.  I was eighth as the even money favorite in the finale at Gulfstream so making a profit came down to the final race at Arlington, the Grade 3 Pucker Up.  Much like the Secretariat I thought Noble Beauty would turn the tables on Auntie Joy after that one had finished in front of Noble Beauty in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks.  I kept waiting for the replay and became frustrated when it had been more than an hour since the race was run so I checked the results.....the winner, NOBLE BEAUTY!  WHOOO HOOOO - and at a nice $7.20 meaning I'd cash for nearly $40 and I was a clear winner.  Later in the evening I was getting photos for this journal when I saw the headline "Noble Beauty Awarded First Place In Pucker Up Via DQ" - oh my!  I finally saw the replay and she was FLYING on the outside to finish in a photo, just behind the winner.  But the winner had drifted out several paths through the stretch, forcing, ironically, Auntie Joy out of a straight line, so the winner was DQ'd for interference to that filly while I was made the winner despite having a clean trip. 

Hey - you never know in racing :)  So, for the day I was a sharp 35% and made money on the day!

Arlington Million Day Highlights