July 30

A HUGE DAY Of Winning!

Disappointing End To The Day Spoils The Profit Line

With my Mom visiting you know there's bound to be a big track day.  But we have been having SUCH hot weather I was not looking forward to sitting outside in the heat with her - you see she only likes to watch the live racing.  And typically during the summer it is really difficult to find runners with enough of an advantage to invest in at Gulfstream Park (unlike the Championship Meet during the winter where seven to ten races a day provide an edge).  Half way through handicapping the Gulfstream card (I wanted to provide my Mom with a race-by-race analysis even if I wasn't betting) I remarked to Kim that this Saturday card was FULL of jockeys with very low winning percentages (and those were the "good" ones) and trainers with even lower averages.  Yet remarkably at the end of my handicapping I had eight races where I felt that one of the runners had an advantage over the other.  It was also interesting that at Monmouth - where you know I handicap every live racing card - this is THE weekend of the meet with tomorrow being the $1 Million Haskell Invitational with several supporting graded stakes on the undercard.  So today would not have many quality races I thought.  But, like Gulfstream I found half a dozen races that provided an edge, including a "BET of the Day" runner in their feature.  I handicapped the Saratoga card and thought that would be enough to keep me "occupied" while not being inside at the simulcast television monitors all day so I could be with my Mom.  On Friday I thought perhaps we should ask my cousin Karen who lives about an hour away if she'd like to join us and she was delighted to make the drive down for the day. 

The first race of the afternoon on my sheet came from Monmouth where I liked Wildman Hart who was a Monmouth 40% Club play for top trainer Jorge Navarro off the long layoff.  I knew he'd be a short price and he was 3/5 as they went into the gate.  When the gates opened he went right to the front and dueled through swift fractions.  I noted that after the first quarter mile his odds now registered at a miniscule 1/5!  When he cleared the other front runner his odds were now a negligible 1/9....really?  Nobody should ever be 1/9 in a maiden claiming event!  He was ahead by daylight in midstretch but had been softened and here came the closers!  Good enough to get home first, but for my triple investment I made a profit of a whopping $0.75!  WOW.  The second at Saratoga was a claiming event going seven furlongs and Cerro was first off the claim for.....JORGE NAVARRO!  I thought this was significant because he wins ALL the time at Monmouth, so for him to send this one to Saratoga he must be seriously thinking he's a winner.  He was bet down to even money and was in front from the opening of the gates to the final jump where he was just nailed....second. :(  My Mom and Karen both bet the first two races at Gulfstream - I didn't think either provided an advantage to bet, though my second choice won the opener.  In the third I liked Rara who was a fair 7/2 price in a one-mile turf event for lower level claimers.  The rider was a mere 4-for-65 but the barn was winning at 29% and at a big 42% with this rider.  He made a big move on the turn to the lead but like Cerro at Saratoga was nailed on the wire - a nice 7/2 price would have provided a generous return.  At Monmouth in their third a Maiden Special sprint caught my eye where Catch Ah Flight looked to be a good price alternative to the probable low priced favorite.  He was 9/2 in the program but was a huge 10/1 at post time.  Flying late - no threat to win but was in a photo-finish for third (4th officially).  The third at Saratoga had me hoping for a scratch in the main body.  It was a 2-year-old maiden special event - is there a Todd Pletcher runner?  You bet, on the rail at a fair price.  But he didn't look nearly as good as a typical Pletcher first timer - still John Velazquez was up.  But in post 11 was the Also Eligible Theory who was also trained by Pletcher and had Johnny V up.  This one was a $335K OBS Sales purchase and looked like "the one."  I thought, I bet Pletcher scratches the inside runner and sends out Theory.  Half right as another scratched from the field allowing Theory in.  The fact that Velazquez jumped off the rail runner to ride here I thought was significant, and that he was being heavily played led me to up the wager.  He broke sharply and dueled through the stretch.  I thought, "now we'll see what he's made of" and he immediately hit another gear and drew off in a convincing win!  HORRAY! 

Cashed for nearly $25 on my second win of the afternoon.  I had no longer logged in the winning numbers and trip comments when I returned to our seats to watch the fourth from Gulfstream.  I liked Flashing Cat.  Unlike most runners at Gulfstream today he was proven here with three local wins.  His off-the-pace style should be well set-up I thought by several faint-hearted front runners including Purple Smoke from the Luis Duco barn which was 0-for-23 at the meet and had enlisted a 1-for-13 rider.  Sure enough, he tracked the pace, swung out at the furlong pole and was well measured to be up in time.  He was 2/1 at post time but was hammered late to 4/5 odds.  Still, a winner is a winner!  Both my Mom and Karen celebrated the victory with me. 

Right away I opened my smart phone to the Monmouth website where they were streaming live video and I watched the 4th, a non-winners of three lifetime turf route.  But as they loaded into the gate I noted that the gate was on the main track! Uh oh.  But wait a minute.....my pick, Buckskin Doll hadbeen my choice based on the human connections of trainer Jason Servis (winning at a big 41%) with top jockey Paco Lopez - winning at a huge 53% for Servis.  'Doll had never tried the turf before, so that it was moved to the main track was no issue to me.  Lopez gave his patented "still as a statue" rides as he was in complete command from the get-go and romped at 4/5.  The double investment led to a payout of nearly $20!  The fourth at Saratoga was the first of the stakes there, it was the Grade 2 Amsterdam, a 6 1/2 furlong sprint for three-year-olds.  Maniacal had not been out since the spring at Keeneland but he had a best-of-57 bullet for this.  He led into the stretch but was run down late at 2/1 odds, second.  The fifth at Gulfstream was a maiden claiming turf route.  And as I wrote, you probably wouldn't have picked Schweets as I did unless you'd been here on July 9th (the only other time I'd been to Gulfstream this summer surprisingly).  That day my "Bet of the Day" live was Pomme d'Or.  That afternoon he'd been odds on, and running second in a big reversal of form was none other than Schweets.  He went off at a very nice 3/1 and was closing resolutely on the rail - PHOTO FINISH!  Second :(  The sixth at Monmouth was my "BEST of the Day" there in a turf route, but we were off the grass today so I scratched it off.  No bet in Gulfstream's sixth either so I sat in the stands until the 7th rolled around.  I was oh-so-pleasantly surprised that in the shade with the ever-present Gulfstream breeze it was actually "warmly comfortable."  No one would ever mistake the weather today for being "up North-like" but it was a far cry from the So Fla heat we've been experiencing.  Made me re-think about getting a seat outside for future racing days.  The seventh finally rolled around and it was my "Gulfstream Best Bet."  This race is typical of what I really enjoy about racing and handicapping.  If you look at Sea Cookie in isolation it's very clear that this guy is no superstar of the sport.  And probably he's not a very trust worthy runner to bet.  BUT what makes this game great is it is NOT about the specific horse so much as it is about the specific horse in THIS SPECIFIC race in comparison to his rivals.  On that basis Sea Cookie jumped off the page like a Breeders' Cup champion.  The first very big angle was that he'd run three times during the Championship Meet - and it's a galaxy away from that competition to the standard racing of the summer.  The trainer David Braddy is winning at a big 27% rate here this summer.  Off the layoff from the winter Sea Cookie ran evenly against $35K runners from a wide draw.  He dropped in class to break his maiden in his second start for Braddy.  In his first try against winners off that, at the same level as today's race, he was a close fourth while improving his speed figures, a very difficult thing to do when facing winners for the initial time.  Then in his most recent he was a best-of-the-rest second, again from a wide draw.  His speed figured jumped to a new career high and today he looked ready to run big.  The crowd sent him off as the 4/5 favorite.  He slaked a dawdling pace into the stretch and it looked like he wouldn't get there in time, but the rider had timed his move perfectly - JUST up in time to score! 

I cashed for nearly $25 on my second win of the day on the live card!  I hustled downstairs to the simulcast monitors to see the seventh from Monmouth.  Diamond Play appeared to be a VERY obvious winner in this 8 1/2 furlong allowance event.  He'd run second in bac-to-back routes at this level - the two back event saw the filly run second behind colts.  And the last time out he was a best-of-the-rest second while a DOZEN clear of the show filly.  I upped the bet when I read he was Kenny Peck's Monmouth Best Bet.  Right to the front and just waltzed around while NEVER threatened! 

I am having a VERY good day, but next up would go a long way in determining just how good the day would be.  That's because the 7th at Saratoga was one of three "BET of the Day" investments where I would be putting a lot of money on the line.  I was unsure about how to structure my big selections today because I had nagging questions about all three of them.  Typically when I am ready to really unload I am CERTAIN that they are going to win.  Here's the scenario on the first - this was the Grade 2 Bowling Green going a mile and 3/8ths on the turf.  The obvious choice was Flintshire who was coming off of a decisive win as my BET of the Day on the undercard on Belmont Day in the Grade 1 Manhattan.  So he would be an overwhelming choice here - right?  My problem was this... (a) Saratoga has become well documented as the "Graveyard of Champions" as often heavy favorites go down; (b) today there was a short four-horse field which would make the pace scenario and trip very dicey; and (c) I'm never as confident when a "tons the best" horse exits a Grade 1 to run at a lower level.  Still - it's Saratoga and this is the race that comes up next on the calendar at Flintshire's distance.  Also you had to love the fact that he'd dominated here in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer last summer.  IF he runs his race he's a big time winner.  But should I make HIM the big bet or Beholder later on when she has her rematch with Stellar Wind in the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar.  I opted to make that one the bigger of the two bets, but was still "all in" to the tune of $50 to WIN here.  I was troubled immediately as they moved into the stretch for the first time because the pace setter was literally walking through fractions of :26 and :53 AND Flintshire was surrounded by the other three.  Obviously the other jockeys were riding as much to deny Flintshire as to win the race for their mount.  As they hit the far turn jockey Javier Castellano was pinned helplessly on the rail.  Really, in a four horse field you can't find room?  So he PULLED HIM BACK - oh no!  We were only a furlong from home and now closing into this glacial pace became even more difficult with the wide move and from the rear.  But with a flick of the wrists Castellano gave the champion his cue and OH MY he blew by without ever being asked to run hard.  OH SO IMPRESSIVE.  Immediately I was thinking I should have made this guy THE big bet of the day.  But he was a prohibitive 1/9 odds and certainly I'd get a click or so better this evening on Beholder.  Most importantly, my winning day would continue and I would not have to "make up" the loss of a big investment. 

The ninth at Gulfstream was a MSW on the turf and I liked Conquest Goinggone from the Mark Casse barn.  Sent off at 9/5 he chased the loose-on-the-lead leader into the stretch and could never catch him, 2nd.  The opener at Del Mar was next and I only had three bets "where the surf meets the turf," and this one was largely due out of respect to DRF handicapper Brad Free.  For years two online handicappers can impact my decisions with their BEST of the day - Free and NYRA's Dave Liftin.  Sadly Liftin recently retired so now it's only Free.  And his best was in the opener where Skookum Spirit had pressed a sensational :44 and change half mile in his debut.  Dropping from a maiden $30K to this $20K should get him home.  He sat further off the pace today and swung out four wide into the lane.  And though he wore down the leaders narrowly in the final two hundred yards it was clear he was going to win the length of the stretch.  Win number eight on what was a fairly limited selection sheet! 

The second of the BIG bets was next up, this one the Monmouth feature, the Regret Stakes.  In handicapping the race I was reminded that in 2014 when I was on the Jersey Shore I was on track to watch Geeky Gorgeous win that year's edition of the Regret......

Today, if the race were run to the form on paper it was clear who the winner would be - Stonetastic.  She was a multiple graded stakes winner and had even been the favorite in the 2014 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint!  But in her most recent when heavily favored she just stopped.  So the question was, would she repeat that dismal effort or run back to her typical talent level.  I was willing to bet the latter, but not go "all in."  I finally settled on a $30 play.  Top rider Paco Lopez hit the accelerator right out of the gate and while the fractions were sizzling - :21 and change and a wicked :43 and change for the half - you could tell she was well within herself and just toying with the opposition.  She coasted home as a much the best winner and I was able to cash for a much "bigger" $2.80 than the miniscule price on Flintshire. 

The result was over $40 back in cash.  Whew, cleared the first two of three big bet hurdles!  The 10th and featured Trinniberg Stakes at Gulfstream was to be the last live race we'd stay for this afternoon.  And I liked Abounding Legacy.  In his pp's you could give valid excuses to two races recently.  The other six most recent had earned Beyers of 88-89-88-87-87-89.  Any of those numbers would require a near lifetime best effort from today's rivals to win.  Surprisingly he was a tepid 2/1 favorite.  He stalked the pace into the stretch, took off and opened up my five or more!  He weakened late and while the final wining score was by a diminishing margin the outcome was never in doubt. 

The very generous $6.40 payoff will result in a payout of over $30 when I next come to Gulfstream!  As we walked downstairs to head to the car I glanced up and saw that the 10th from Monmouth was already official.  "Don't look" I told myself, because I had a bet and would want to watch the replay as though it were live.  But I couldn't help it, I could tell that the winning number was shaded in pink - the color for the #8 horse and my choice was.......#8 Bamma Bound!  WHOOO HOOO!  When I watched the replay later it had been a thrilling stretch duel with a tight photo finish - but I WAS the winner!

In the 11th at Gulfstream I had put my money on Pay Any Price to win this entry level AOC in a five furlong turf sprint.  She'd won three in a row, two of them in turf sprints here.  But she'd not been seen since mid-June.  If able to repeat her fractions when wiring the earlier races (:21 and change and an insane :42.4 half) she would be an easy winner.  But the stamina off the layoff if she ran that quickly was a concern.  Shouldn't have worried, she went :21.3 and :43 and change and wired the field for fun. 

I'll cash for nearly $20 upon my return to the track!  The second play at Del Mar saw Honor and Courage weaken to be fifth in a MSW 2yo race and then Mohaymen continued to struggle in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga.  Though everyone was shocked by the 27-1 winner of this prep for the prestigious Grade 1 Travers when Loban - A MAIDEN - wired the field!  I cashed in the finale at Gulfstream when Salt Lake Beauty paid a generous $9.60 for my 13th winner on the day. 

It had been a remarkable day with 13 wins from just twenty-two selections - a 60% win rate.  All that was needed to make it a big money-making day was for Beholder to win the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch.  She was 5/4-1-0 at Del Mar and had won every race since 2014 including a win over last year's 3yo champion Stellar Wind a month ago.  My concern was that Stellar Wind was no slouch and with one under her belt I thought she'd make Beholder work much harder.  But EVERYONE was certain of the outcome and pounded Beholder to 1/9 odds.  She looked to be in complete command into the turn but then Stellar Wind made her move and the duel was on.  It was racing headlines Sunday when Stellar Wind edged clear late to upset the champion.  Still, thanks to a remarkable day the HUGE bet I made here (should have made it on Flintshire and bet this one less in retrospect) was nearly covered and I'll walk away remembering the good day with my Mom and the big number of winners.

July 30th Racing Highlights