August 6

August 6

Today was Whitney Handicap Day and I had handicapped the racing cards from Monmouth, Saratoga, and Mountaineer where it was West Virginia Derby Day.  The second at Saratoga was a MSW for two-year-olds and I went with Todd Pletcher's Hieroglyphics.  I mentioned in my analysis that the only "legitimate" threat looked to be Chad Brown's Practical Joke.  Hieroglyphics was 10th at 9/2 while Practical Joke won at nearly 5/2 odds.  The 2nd at Mountaineer was the West Virginia Chairman's Cup going 4 1/2 furlongs and this looked to be all Roman Approval IF he broke sharply from the rail.  Sure enough, he was quickly in front by daylight, opened up turning for home and then held off the late charge of the favorite. 

In the 4th at Monmouth was a maiden claimer for 2yo sprinters and I liked Eddie Plesa's Noble Dave.  He'd stumbled out of the gate in his MSW debut going 4 1/2 furlongs and finished with interest to be 4th.  Paco Lopez had him ready to roll but was behind horses through the turn.  I just knew as soon as he got loose he'd sprint home as much the best.  But while he did give a good finish, he wasn't even close to catching the one who'd emerged from the pack in front....2nd.  In the fifth at Mountaineer, somebody must have known something because Mizz Money was a six-time turf winner and 5/2-2-0 at the distance with turf earnings of more than $300K.  In addition she'd won the Grade 3 Gallorette in May.  Yet in this listed $100K event she was 4/1 at post time.  She was right there turning for home but faded through the lane to be fifth.  The 6th at Mountianeer was the Senator Robert Byrd going six furlongs.  Candip had earned figures of 99-103-103 in three of his last four and was coming off a win in the $100K Iowa Sprint.  He was a generous 5/2 at post time and after showing speed to the turn he faded to finish a well beaten sixth.  At Saratoga another Pletcher runner, Ectot was a disappointment in the $100K Lure Stakes.  Got an inside trip to the top of the lane.....a hole opened on the rail and he shot through to challenge but at the furlong marker he faded out of contention to finish fifth at 5/2.  The eight at Monmouth saw JK's Girl go off at 6/5 and as the gates opened it didn't look to me like she had trouble, just seemed like his jockey took him right to the back.  Flying late, but never close to the winner, second.  In the 8th at Saratoga I thought the lightly raced Kareena might be good enough to take the Grade 1 Test for sophomore fillies.  She blazed the early fractions in :21.3 and :43 and change then stopped to finish 6th at 6/5.  FINALLY got into the winner's circle again, and this time with the feature at Monmouth which was my "Monmouth Best Bet."  Red Lodge was the 3/5 post time favorite in the Colleen Stakes for two-year-old fillies going 5 1/2 furlongs.  She had just missed in her main track debut at Keeneland last spring on the main track, but when allowed to try Belmont's inner track she dominated.  Off that maiden win trainer Wesley Ward shipped her to Royal Ascot to try the Group 2 Norfolk.  She'd been in contention to the stretch then weakened.  This group would be far softer IF the trip overseas and the layoff had not knocked her out.  She had had two months to recover and top rider Paco Lopez was on today.  She set the pace while under pressure, but in watching it was a typical Lopez confident ride.  He had plenty of horse and he knew it for when the others began to make a run at her as heads turned for home he simply let her out a notch and she won going away under a hand ride. 

Unfortunately she was a short 1/2 price and so the prime time bet only resulted in a payoff of $30.00.  My last play on the Mountaineer card was the West Virginia's Speakers Cup on the turf (my pick in the W Va Derby scratched).  Rose Brier had won a listed event like this at Laurel, the Henry Clark, and was coming here off a solid third in the Grade 3 Red Bank.  She stalked the leader, made a bid, but was repelled....then inside the final furlong she made another courageous try and was gaining but not before the wire - second.  The finale at Monmouth was a "beaten" $5K route and Addy's Eyes was the lone Monmouth 40% Club play of the day for trainer McMahon.  He's a club member with runners moving from the turf to the dirt, like this one.  For the majority of the betting Addy was 1/5, but finally floated up to a more "reasonable" 3/5 - still, in a $5,000 "beaten" claimer, really?  But wow she ran like a stakes champion!  Right to the front and under a tight hold the entire way.  The rider didn't move as she opened up through the stretch and inside the final 16th he was actually standing straight up and she STILL won by double-digit lengths. 

The last race on the sheet was the featured race nationally, the Grade 1 Whitney from Saratoga going nine furlongs.  I had picked Frosted in the Grade 1 Met Mile last time out and he was simply sensational drawing off by fourteen lengths in one of the biggest "WOW" races of the year.  For the effort he'd earned a spectacular Beyer speed figure of 123 - one of the highest numbers in recent memory.  That made him a prime candidate to bounce, big time today - especially stretching out to two turns.  But, if he ran anything close to that number he would win for fun.  I read an article after I'd made him my top pick that his trainer Kiaran McLaughlin was quoted as saying that since the beginning of the year when learned to give him more time between races he was a different race horse.  I thought he would be a decisive winner over this group.  And I thought there was enough pace to set up his finishing kick from a stalking trip.  But when the gates opened he shot right to the front!  WHAT is going on?  And then the fractions came up:  a quick :23 and change for the opening quarter, an insane :46 flat for the half mile - going nine furlongs?  I know I'm cooked.  When the pace call came up in a blistering 1:09.3 I was convinced I would not be cashing here.  But then I noticed Joel Rosario was sitting motionless and if anything had a strong hold on Frosted, even as they turned for home and all the other riders were working their horses aggressively.  After a peak over his shoulder Rosario shook the reins in mid-stretch and he took off to score decisively.  WOW this guy looked dazzling again today!  The good news is that Frosted was the "Saratoga Best" of the day; the bad news was like Red Lodge he was bet down to 1/2 favoritism, so I was only cashing for $30. 

The first two days of the week had been so amazing that today's 27% winners was pretty disappointing, but through the first three days of handicapping I'm still in the black and have cashed on 13 of 28 selections for an amazing 46%.  One final day of selections (strictly at Monmouth) tomorrow, our last day in Houston.  I'll be ready to head for home on Monday in spite of how much I have enjoyed seeing the grandsons :)