I always love Arlington Million Day and it seems like it typically is a very good day of handicapping as well as a highlight of the summer. I headed out to Gulfstream with a seat in the Silks Simulcast Center reserved and selections at five tracks: Arlington, Gulfstream, Monmouth, Saratoga, and Woodbine. The day could not have started off any better as I won the first three races on the selection sheet! In the Monmouth opener Goodnewsiwthatwist looked best in a claiming sprint. I liked that top rider Paco Lopez was on and he would sit off what I thought would be a contested pace. Instead Lopez popped him right out of the gate to the lead and never looked back as the easiest kind of winner.
I had tripled the bet, but he was only 1/5 at post time. I came right back in the Saratoga opener, a non-winners of two lifetime and there was a Pletcher runner - very uncharacteristic that he'd have a claimer, especially in conditioned company. Just as odd that this dirt sprinter was owned by top turf owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey! Baby Bear's Soup went off at a fair 8/5 for his first try for a tag but immediately hesitated out of the gate to be last. Jockey John Velazquez allowed him to settle quickly and he moved up to third before they hit the far turn. At the top of the lane he engaged the leader and now we'd find out how much energy he had used up to recover from the bad start. Apparently not very much as he blew by to score emphatically!
They had not longer crossed the finish at the Spa than they were loading in the gate outside for Gulfstream's second. Hy Riverside looked much the best on paper as only one of the 56 races run over the last two years collectively by his rivals would beat any of his last THREE speed figures. But as they approached the far turn the favorite was well back. Heads turned for home and he rallied furiously and blew by just as they ran past me standing along the rail!
But then I hit a dry patch where I ran 2nd twice and third (at Woodbine, Saratoga, and Monmouth) and then was off the board in four straight.....fortunately only two were added investments. In the 4th at Woodbine it was their feature, the Flaming Page carded at a mile and a half on the turf. But it had started raining and this race came off the grass. Stick with the pick on the all-weather synthetic which often plays like grass? In the end I said yes and Goodyearforroses was easily best. Patiently handled to the far turn he glided up and took over once asked to run in the lane.
Rallied too late at a big 8/1 at Gulfstream (fifth) and then was third in a four-horse field at 3/5 with my "best" at Monmouth - disappointing. Racing at Saratoga had been delayed before the running of the fourth as it was just POURING down rain there. I worried about the later turf races and sure enough my "best" of the day was taken off. Sigh....I won my second race at Saratoga in their fifth, a Maiden Special sprint for two-year-olds. At Saratoga with 2yo maidens, just like 3yo maidens at Gulfstream in the winter, the question is always first - is there a Pletcher runner? Of the Pletcher juveniles it's always good to find a runner that is owned by Michael Repole who (a) is a big client of Pletcher's and (b) has made no secret that he loves to see his horses win in New York, especially at Saratoga. When a Repole runner is trained by Todd Pletcher, the "go-to" rider is typically John Velazquez. Sure enough there was Thirst For Victory - Pletcher/Repole/Velazquez. End of handicapping! He broke slowly but recovered quickly to move into second before they were through the far turn. How much had the recovery cost him was now the question as they splashed home. He surged at the 16th pole to win going away!
I had doubled the bet (after initially planning to only go in on the minimum) and collected nearly $30. WHOOO HOOO. In the 8th at Gulfstream Snack Shack was cruising along uncontested on an easy lead in a Maiden Claiming turf sprint into the lane, then was inhaled to finish fourth as the 9/5 favorite. Next was the first of the five big graded stakes at Arlington, the Grade 3 American St. Leger. I typically win several of the big turf races on this signature day by keying in on the foreign runners. And I was about to do that here, but the more I looked at the field the more obvious it was that the best North American horse in the field, was simply the best in the field, even if he was the program favorite - Da Big Hoss. He was well played at the windows and as I considered the investment I decided to up the ante to a "prime time" play. He sat patiently in fifth to the far turn for jockey Florent Geroux, cruised up easily while four wide and then sprinted home as easily the best!
The 4/5 post time odds allowed me to cash for nearly $60! I walked up onto the balcony walk-way at Gulfstream to video the race recap for this big win and as I walked back into the breezeway my attention was caught by the big screen broadcast from Saratoga:
Bummer, that meant I lost out on some good wagering opportunities. But it did allow me to head for home about an hour earlier. The feature at Monmouth was next and Paco Lopez was on Run For Logistics for Eddie Plesa. He pressed the pace in perfect position turning for home but never made up any ground on the wire-to-wire winner, my second choice. Next was the Grade 1 Secretariat at Arlington and I thought that Long Island Sound would out run Beach Patrol despite having finished behind that one in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby last time out. But that was his first start in North America and I expected an improved effort. They hooked up at the top of the lane and it was a thrilling photo finish.....
That's me on the inside, sigh.....second at a very fair 3/1 price. The tenth at Gulfstream was next, an allowance event on the turf and it was my "best" locally. Amigo had been 4th in the Sunshine Millions Turf and third in the Grade 3 Tropical TUrf Handicap despite being steadied and checked. He laid over this entry level field. Cruised to the lead turning for home but like so many others this week, was nailed in a photo finish. The eighth at Arlington was my BET of the Day, the Grade 1 Beverly D from Arlington. Sea Calisi was my second North American runner today over the preferred Euros. But not only did she look best to me but several articles I read preceding today's big event was that she was a logical "single" in the All-Stakes Pick 4 wager. Loved that she was owned by Martin Schwartz and trained by Chad Brown - they have taken many Euros and turned them into North American graded stakes winners, and Sea Calisi had started her career in Europe before coming over here with two show placings in Group 1 company. She won the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay and nailed late in the Grade 2 New York by stable mate Dacita.....who, if you follow my adventures, was my top pick in her most recent, the Grade 1 Diana at Saratoga where she won at a big price. Sea Calisi's stable mate set a hot pace into the far turn while Geroux had her settled near the back. She blew by the field through the turn and opened up to win in a strong performance. I had decided when I made the wager to up the ante from the planned "all in" $50 to a full $75 bet.
She was a prohibitive 1/5 in the early betting but floated all the way up to 4/5 at post time. And as she crossed the line somehow the crowd let her go off at better than even money! The $4.20 payoff allowed me to cash for nearly $160! As I headed out to film the clip for this my phone rang and it was Jeff calling from Kansas where they'd just got off the practice field. He said he just wanted to thank me as he got online and checked my picks, then bet $50 to win on Sea Calisi. For the featured Arlington Million I could not find anyone that I loved - but I was strictly against the top four betting favorites. I was intrigued that several online handicappers selected the upset with Woodbine Mile winner Mondaliste, but I didn't think he could get the distance. I went with Take The Stand at a big 15/1 who I thought could wire the field. Sure enough as they turned for home Edgar Prado had him in front and he was clear by daylight. My heart was pounding because this could be a huge score for me, over $150! But the closers got to him at the 16th pole and the thrill was over....ironically it WAS Mondaliste at $10.40 who was just in front on the wire. I was eighth as the even money favorite in the finale at Gulfstream so making a profit came down to the final race at Arlington, the Grade 3 Pucker Up. Much like the Secretariat I thought Noble Beauty would turn the tables on Auntie Joy after that one had finished in front of Noble Beauty in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. I kept waiting for the replay and became frustrated when it had been more than an hour since the race was run so I checked the results.....the winner, NOBLE BEAUTY! WHOOO HOOOO - and at a nice $7.20 meaning I'd cash for nearly $40 and I was a clear winner. Later in the evening I was getting photos for this journal when I saw the headline "Noble Beauty Awarded First Place In Pucker Up Via DQ" - oh my! I finally saw the replay and she was FLYING on the outside to finish in a photo, just behind the winner. But the winner had drifted out several paths through the stretch, forcing, ironically, Auntie Joy out of a straight line, so the winner was DQ'd for interference to that filly while I was made the winner despite having a clean trip.
Hey - you never know in racing :) So, for the day I was a sharp 35% and made money on the day!
Arlington Million Day Highlights
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