A New Month - A BIG Day
Look Back At July & The Summer So Far
With the conclusion of racing on Haskell Day, Sunday, the page turns to a new month and so I worked through the statistics for the month on Monday and Tuesday.....and I have excellent results to report (if I do say so myself!). First, I have been very aware that the summer handicapping has been one of the BEST handicapping seasons in many years and as the month of July started I was disappointed with the slow start. I was concerned that maybe, as is often the case, that the numbers were "balancing out." But the last part of the month, and in particular the last five days of results boosted the overall July numbers to the high standards of the first three months:
Beginning with Sunday, July 24 - Coaching Club of America Oaks Day - through Haskell Day I had fifty-three selections over this time period which produced THIRTY wins.....a huge 56%. I also went through and looked at strictly how the Monmouth handicapping was going since this is the track that I have singled out to handicap on a daily basis. Through the first twenty-nine days of the meet (excludes the two weeks we were in Alaska) I have collected winners at a big 42% rate with a $2.10 ROI. With Monmouth 40% Club plays at an even bigger 46% rate with an ROI of $2.39. Two wins in particular have highlighted the winners produced by utilizing Jim Mazur's book and this specific tool.
And so the page turned to the first week of August. Woodbine ran a special program on Monday so there was no Wednesday evening racing. WHAT! Well, we can't just pass up this mid-week day of racing! So I handicapped both Saratoga and Presque Isle Downs. The first three selections at Saratoga - all minimum plays - did not result in a win. The first runner scratched out, and the next two ran third and fifth. The eighth race on the card was the featured Shine Again Stakes going seven furlongs on the main track. The headline attraction was Wavell Avenue who upset the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall. But this season she'd yet to win, while running well. The drop today into a listed stakes made her the obvious choice. But, her deep closing style is always a risky bet. Sure enough, as the field hit the far turn she was pinned on the rail and at the back of the pack - BUT was winding up. She found an opening and at the furlong marker she was able to shift outside the top two leaders and she kissed those rivals goodbye and drew off as the Grade 1 champion she is.
It was the first added money play of the day and suddenly I'm back to nearly even! The ninth was a second level allowance event and I liked Todd Pletcher's Capriana. In listening to the pre-race analysis the commentators were pointing out that Pletcher had closed to within one win of catching the current leading trainer, Chad Brown. And while Capriana was the favorite, last out she was defeated by Brown's Ack Naughty. BUT in that race Capriana had had trouble. I thought she'd be place near the front and get first jump on the Brown runner. With a trouble free trip she'd be the most likely winner. The race played out exactly as I'd seen it and the two ran 1-2.
Two for four at the Spa on the day! Now we move on to the evening's races from Erie. I passed on the first two, but in the third I thought I had a pretty big edge with Catalactic. He showed in his past performances a strong closing kick and this race looked to have several "need to lead" runners. The barn was winning at a sharp 27% clip and top rider Antonio Gallardo was up. The result played out the way I envisioned it, but the race shape did not. A 7/1 shot bolted to the front and was quickly confronted by and passed by the 4/1 third choice. He opened up over the 7/1 runner with Catalactic sitting the perfect trip in third. He angled off the rail at the top of the stretch and had all the momentum but it took him nearly the length of the stretch to get by before finally edging clear in the final fifty yards.
Catalactic was the 6/5 post time favorite, but I'd doubled down on him so I was cashing for over $20 with my third win in a row! Passed the fourth and if the fifth had been at a bigger track and/or for a better quality of runner I would have gone all in on Marquee Cal Gal. This was a $16K Starter Allowance and two back the obvious choice had won at 9/5 odds against $40K runners. So when she dropped in to this $16K qualifier last time she was the oh-so-obvious choice .... and she dominated. The fact she was back at the same level SHOULD mean an equally easy win. But with these lower level runners the one thing that is most often lacking is the consistency. And I KNEW she'd be a short price. I was very happy to see her odds flash up at 4/5 when I watched the replay. She sat the perfect trip, angled off the rail into the stretch, split horses and was confidently handled to a runaway victory....again. I had tripled the bet so I was cashing for nearly $30 on my FOURTH consecutive win.
In the Erie finale I went with Ride For A Cure who was 7/2 in the program for the top rider. Gallardo had her in mid-pack to the turn when he asked for run. No response - none what so ever as she plummeted through the field to be last of twelve at 4/1. But for the first day/evening of handicapping in the new month I'd gone 4-for-7 which is approaching 60% and I'd made nearly $30 in this small set of selections!
And so the page turned to the first week of August. Woodbine ran a special program on Monday so there was no Wednesday evening racing. WHAT! Well, we can't just pass up this mid-week day of racing! So I handicapped both Saratoga and Presque Isle Downs. The first three selections at Saratoga - all minimum plays - did not result in a win. The first runner scratched out, and the next two ran third and fifth. The eighth race on the card was the featured Shine Again Stakes going seven furlongs on the main track. The headline attraction was Wavell Avenue who upset the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last fall. But this season she'd yet to win, while running well. The drop today into a listed stakes made her the obvious choice. But, her deep closing style is always a risky bet. Sure enough, as the field hit the far turn she was pinned on the rail and at the back of the pack - BUT was winding up. She found an opening and at the furlong marker she was able to shift outside the top two leaders and she kissed those rivals goodbye and drew off as the Grade 1 champion she is.
It was the first added money play of the day and suddenly I'm back to nearly even! The ninth was a second level allowance event and I liked Todd Pletcher's Capriana. In listening to the pre-race analysis the commentators were pointing out that Pletcher had closed to within one win of catching the current leading trainer, Chad Brown. And while Capriana was the favorite, last out she was defeated by Brown's Ack Naughty. BUT in that race Capriana had had trouble. I thought she'd be place near the front and get first jump on the Brown runner. With a trouble free trip she'd be the most likely winner. The race played out exactly as I'd seen it and the two ran 1-2.
Two for four at the Spa on the day! Now we move on to the evening's races from Erie. I passed on the first two, but in the third I thought I had a pretty big edge with Catalactic. He showed in his past performances a strong closing kick and this race looked to have several "need to lead" runners. The barn was winning at a sharp 27% clip and top rider Antonio Gallardo was up. The result played out the way I envisioned it, but the race shape did not. A 7/1 shot bolted to the front and was quickly confronted by and passed by the 4/1 third choice. He opened up over the 7/1 runner with Catalactic sitting the perfect trip in third. He angled off the rail at the top of the stretch and had all the momentum but it took him nearly the length of the stretch to get by before finally edging clear in the final fifty yards.
Catalactic was the 6/5 post time favorite, but I'd doubled down on him so I was cashing for over $20 with my third win in a row! Passed the fourth and if the fifth had been at a bigger track and/or for a better quality of runner I would have gone all in on Marquee Cal Gal. This was a $16K Starter Allowance and two back the obvious choice had won at 9/5 odds against $40K runners. So when she dropped in to this $16K qualifier last time she was the oh-so-obvious choice .... and she dominated. The fact she was back at the same level SHOULD mean an equally easy win. But with these lower level runners the one thing that is most often lacking is the consistency. And I KNEW she'd be a short price. I was very happy to see her odds flash up at 4/5 when I watched the replay. She sat the perfect trip, angled off the rail into the stretch, split horses and was confidently handled to a runaway victory....again. I had tripled the bet so I was cashing for nearly $30 on my FOURTH consecutive win.
In the Erie finale I went with Ride For A Cure who was 7/2 in the program for the top rider. Gallardo had her in mid-pack to the turn when he asked for run. No response - none what so ever as she plummeted through the field to be last of twelve at 4/1. But for the first day/evening of handicapping in the new month I'd gone 4-for-7 which is approaching 60% and I'd made nearly $30 in this small set of selections!
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