It's HASKELL DAY!
While I didn't seriously consider it, the thought did occur to me that I should pass the races today. Why? Because the month of June was an exceptional month for handicapping. Only to be followed by a slow start to July when we returned from Alaska. Then last Sunday I had an excellent day, and after an average Wednesday I had an excellent Friday (2-for-3) followed by a sensational 60% winning day yesterday. Why dampen the weekend good vibe with an "off day?" But then common sense returned and I'd already made selections for the signature day at Monmouth. As is an annual tradition we started today off with our excursion to Jaxsons Ice Cream Parlor in celebration of my birthday tomorrow. There is little that can be better than ice cream and the GENEROUS portions offered here at Jaxsons are anticipated by the entire family all year long. To not come here would be unthinkable!
We headed to Dania Beach for our "lunch" with an anticipated arrival at noon, so I needed to make some of my online wagers ahead of time. Unfortunately today was a rainy day on the Jersey Shore and so all non-stakes races were taken off the turf, costing me two of my investments - both added money picks. The first of those that I passed on was in the second where Cara Dune was a Monmouth 40% Club play for Chad Brown. When he left this turf runner in on the main track I should have made the bet.....won at a huge $9.20. Sigh......In the third I actually had money on Third Day who was debuting for top North American trainer Todd Pletcher in this MSW for two-year-olds. The crowd let him get away at nearly 5/2 odds! He stalked the pace to the turn then blew by to win for fun.
The $6.80 payoff allowed my account to grow by well over $15. In the 5th Keep Me Grounded rallied between horses, led, dueled....PHOTO FINISH - 2nd. Next up was the featured Grade 3 Shuvee Handicap from Saratoga. I had not downloaded the past performances, but when I saw that Todd Pletcher's Curalina was running in a short field I knew she would be a likely winner. As I flipped over to the live video field the online analysts were against my pick. The Shug McGaughey trained Carrumba was being heavily bet and at post time the two of them were co-favored at 4/5. Right out of the gate they sprinted clear of the rest of the field in spite of it being a nine furlong test. The fractions were more than honest and it's NEVER good to see your pick dueling from the gate in a long race like this. As they hit the far turn Carrumba accelerated and so Curalina did as well. This is a great race! As heads turned for home jockey John Velazquez asked Curalina to sprint home. She immediately responded and left her rival in the wake of the mud splashing off her hooves. A convincing winner and I had my second victory of the day and first graded stakes winner!
Fifteen minutes later they were in the gate for a second level allowance sprint at Monmouth. Visionary Ruler was another Monmouth 40% Club play, but even without that she'd have been a heavy favorite. She was exiting back-to-back OPEN stakes races (third in the Mr. Prospector last out) to run in this state-bred allowance spot. AND she got Paco Lopez to ride for trainer Jorge Navarro - the leading trainer. With class droppers over the last two years Navarro has been an unbelievable 47% winner. The crowd hammered him to 2/5 odds but when the gates opened he was standing still. Really? But quickly he caught up to the 8/1 leader, then edged clear through the lane as much the best!
The double investment led to another near-$15 return. The eighth at Monmouth was the beginning of a series of five straight graded stakes. I've learned many lessons since becoming a "full time" handicapper and two of them came into play here. First, I've learned that I am every bit as good a handicapper as the so-called pros. And second I've learned that I cash many, MANY more tickets than those that play against horses based on the odds. But in spite of this I was amazed to listen to the pre-race analysis of both Mike Curci and Brad Thomas who were both against Bradester in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup. This guy simply TOWERED over the field to me, regardless of the odds. He'd earned back-to-back 101 Beyers, which would easily beat these; he was certainly a "Horse-for-the-Course" with a 6/3-3-0 local record; and even better that all of this - he was the inside speed AND the LONE SPEED. Duh, hello! He was my Monmouth BET of the Day. The gates opened and immediately Jersey Joe Bravo shot him to the front. While the fractions were faster than I would have liked for nine furlongs it was obvious he was cruising well within himself. They turned for home and all the others were being hard ridden to just keep up. Bravo sat motionless, and as you can see in the photo below with a big smile on his face as he cruised to victory!
That's two big stakes wins on the day! WHOOOO HOOOOO! In the Grade 3 Oceanport on the soft turf I thought War Dancer had an upset shot, but with the off-going I backed off the wager. A good third at 5/1. Missed again in the Grade 3 Molly Pitcher when Super Majesty was a question mark at the distance but I thought she could steal it on the front end. Bet down to 9/5 favoritism she couldn't shake Paco Lopez who pressed from the get-go on a Pletcher runner. My pick faded, Paco won at 5/2. Grrrrrr. You never know when to go with or against that guy! I had won at Saratoga and now it was time for my other non-Monmouth play. The feature at Woodbine today was the Grade 3 ROyal North going six furlongs on the turf. The probable favorite was Lady Shipman. Two back she'd been the BET of the Day on Black-Eyed Susans Day and I'd bet $100 to win. In her most recent she'd tried the colts in Grade 2 company here and had stopped uncharacteristically. So the question was this - is she over the top? Does she not like this course? Or do you toss that race. I originally intended to make this a BIG play, but in the end too much uncertainty so I simply made her the co-BEST of the Day and invested prime time. Never should have worried (though when I noted her regular rider did NOT make the trip to Canada for today I was concerned!). Right to the front and looked like the Lady Shipman I know and love! WHOOOOP WHOOOOOP!
In the Grade 3 Matchmaker I thought Todd Pletcher's Itsonlyactingdad would be a nice price but she was 4/1 in the DRF program. I felt she "owed me" today! Why? Because not this past winter but in 2015 I had her in her 3yo debut at Gulfstream at huge 9/1 odds. Flying through the lane she was a photo-finish 2nd. She'd gone on to run really well, including a big priced 2nd behind unbeaten 2015 3yo filly champ Lady Eli in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. This wasn't the deepest field and I thought there was enough pace for her to close into. The pace was NOT fast and she was well back when they hit the top of the far turn. But then Bravo said go and she began to find seams between and around horses. At the 1/8th pole she had all the momentum and she rolled by to win going away.
The generous 5/2 price made her the biggest priced winner of the day and I was collecting on my fourth graded stakes of the day! The last race of the day was the Grade 1 Haskell featuring the top three finishers from the Kentucky Derby and I didn't like any of them! I went with Bob Baffert's American Freedom whom he'd said was his best three-year-old. He stalked the pace at a huge 9/2 price and made his move to the front at the 1/8th pole. Here came mud-loving Exaggerator - the Preakness winner - and the two exchanged bumps, knocking American Freedom just off balance. He re-broke and was a best-of-the-rest second. There was an objection and I would have taken him down but it seemed unlikely the stewards would. Still it was a good effort and for the day I finished a remarkable 10/6-2-1 with a profit of nearly $60! What a G-R-E-A-T Day!
Haskell Day Stakes Wins
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