August 21-22

WIN Early - Struggle Most Of The Day

After just an "OK" Saturday I was hopeful that Sunday would bring a return to regular winning selections.  And it could not have gotten off to a better start, though not without a great story!  I had read online about a week ago that Wesley Ward had a two-year-old who had won her debut at Keeneland and then had run away with a Grade 2 at Royal Ascot.  The filly's name was Lady Aurelia, She had been my top choice in mid-April but had scratched out and her stable mate had won for me, then on April 21st she debuted as my "prime time" selection and set a track record as much the best.  Then it was off to merry, ole' England where she romped at Royal Ascot.  The article I read recently quoted more than European horseman saying that she was the best two-year-old in Europe, of either sex!  And a follow-up article said she would be running on August 21st (which would be the morning of August 22nd here) in a Group 1 event in France where she would face another unbeaten filly from the Aidan O'Brien barn.  Then this week on Thursday I read that the O'Brien filly was being re-routed to another spot which meant, I thought, that Lady Aurelia was a layover.  The question was, could I make the bet?  So yesterday while playing the races I looked at the European tracks and there was Deauville.  Ok, I'm in!  Now, to find out some info about the field and when the race will be run.  It took me about fifteen minutes of searching before finally finding that Lady Aurelia was scheduled to run against four other fillies in the 4th race, the Group 1 Prix Morny, going six furlongs with a 9:45 am start time.  The sprint would go six furlongs over the straight course and she was listed as the 1/2 favorite.  I added her to my selection sheet for the day and set my alarm for 9:15 as a reminder.  So, about 9 am today I got online and uh oh - NO DEAUVILLE track was listed!  What's going on?  It was here yesterday!  I remembered from playing some international races in the past that often the international feed is listed under one track and they bop around from one venue to another so I went through the cards of the tracks being offered.  Nope, no Lady Aurelia.  OK, I'll play the race on Twinspires.  Logged in and the same thing - no Deauville racecourse!  Seriously, am I not going to get to play the race?  I went back to Xpressbet and started looking around.  I discovered that there is a "Calendar" button at the top, but it is NOT visible unless you are currently in a "program view" of a current track.  So while looking, again, at the current international slate I found this button and clicked it.  Ok, the race is listed.  I tried clicking it and voila!  The screen changed to Deauville and the program appeared.  It was currently fifteen minutes to race three.  I switched to race 4 and there she was.  WHOOO HOOOO!  Way to stick with it Mr. Mark!  So I clicked the video button and oh no, the window that appeared said "the video for this race is not available."  Now this could mean that they were only showing the big race, unlikely, or they weren't getting the video feed.  Would I not be able to watch?  I found this odd because I had easily made the bet.  So I set out to find live feed from Deauville.  It took me over ten minutes but I finally found a site using the Google search that had a live feed, with French announcers - that was very interesting - and I looked to be in.  The third went off and it was quite unusual - it was a harness race, on the grass!  Finally it was post time for the featured Group 1 Prix Morny.  I was reminded as they loaded of the odd way the international races do the numbering.  While Lady Aurelia was wearing the #5 saddle cloth she was in the third gate from the inside.  The gates burst open and jockey Frankie Deterrori shot right to the front with the highly regarded filly.  With no splits available and it being on a straight course you had no idea how far they'd gone or how far they had to go.  But knowing that fast sprints on the grass will typically earn a pace figure of :45 or less I could tell when they were two furlongs from home, and then you could tell that all the riders were now vigorously pushing their fillies for the sprint to the wire.  I was comfortably in front by about two lengths but two others were beginning to make up ground.  It didn't look like Lady Aurelia was going to give that impressive kick to draw off, so now the desperate race to the wire was ON!  They were getting closer with a furlong out and the camera angle switched to a higher view so now the finish line was in view.  It looked like I was home free and she crossed under the wire with a diminishing length margin.  

She had been a "BET of the Day" with a $50 (US dollars) to win and she paid a nice $2.60 allowing me to start the day with a $65 return for a profit of $15!  But it was a great story and a great race!

When the racing re-started about 1 pm I was right back in the winners' circle with the opener from Monmouth.  Mystery Solved wired a maiden claiming sprint going 5 1/2 furlongs as a Monmouth 40% Club play for trainer Jason Servis and jockey Nik Juarez.  Not only a "club play," but the move from turf to dirt is a 47% angle for the barn AND he was moving from MSW into a claimer for the first time....BANG!  Easily.  But as great as the day started off I was destined to only cash on one more selection today.  I played the 2nd from Woodbine where they had a huge stakes-laden card but I didn't like any of those.  But Jim Bannon's BEST was here in a maiden claiming seven furlong event.  Cape Mist went off at 3/5 and was an even third.  At Saratoga Thunderonthenile rallied at 6/1 to be a non-threatening 5th in a MSW for 2yo on the turf and in the 4th at the Spa Idiosyncratic was 4th and her stable mate was 2nd at 6/5 as a Chad Brown entry going a mile and a sixteenth in an entry level turf allowance.  At Monmouth Fahan Mura rallied belatedly at 4/1 to be fifth and then Bella Postiere was a troubled 6th as the 4/5 favorite in an entry level turf event.  Paco Lopez had I'm Steppin Up pressing the pace in the 7th at 2/1 then stopped badly, then was eased under the wire......wow.  Back to Saratoga in another 2yo MSW turf event where Okinawa for Chad Brown was a fading 6th after pressing the early pace at 2/1.  Finally, a winner in the featured Grade 3 Cliffhanger at Monmouth.  Can'tstopbelieving was sent out by trainer Graham Motion with jockey Trevor McCarthy and these two had won a graded Sunday feature on the turf for me a couple of weeks ago, so immediately I was interested.  Then as I went through the field and scanned the Beyer speed figures I discovered he held a DOUBLE BEYER advantage.  I counted them up and of the 138 combined races run by his rivals there was a single figure that might challenge him.  He looked solid.  Add in the fact that 'Believing's numbers were earned in a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 and now he was dropping in class - it's "prime time" pal!  He got a great ride by McCarthy as he sat near the back to the turn then moved up to third.  McCarthy threaded he was between runners on the turn then edged out into the clear turning for home and once the horse saw daylight he exploded and ran to his numbers as MUCH the best. 

The generous 9/5 price allowed me to cash for nearly $60!  With this big score and my "BET of the Day" up next I thought I was going to end up having a nice day.  Next up was the Grade 2 Lake Placid from Saratoga where Catch A Glimpse looked to bury these.  Not only was she unbeaten on the turf and a multiple Grade 1 winner, but she'd already beaten the most likely challenger last time and that one was a closer and today's race was shorter.  AND Catch A Glimpse looked to be loose on the lead!  I thought the 3/5 price was very generous and as they hit the far turn she was cruising.  I thought jockey John Velazquez on the challenger, Time and Motion, rode very cleverly as he pressed Catch A Glimpse rather than letting her get a big lead.  But as they turned for home Catch a Glimpse hit another gear and opened up.  I knew we were home free.....but then Time and Motion responded and they were head to head inside the final sixteenth.......

caught.....sigh.  Didn't see that coming.  So for the day I was an average 27%, again (3-for-11) and because of the late loss by Catch A Glimpse I finished in the red for the day.

August 22:  Monday Racing At The Spa
Today was the first day of school for students and I had the house to myself as I got back into full "retirement mode."  I had a list of things to do but as I was out picking up a light-weight jacket for my October solo trip to France it occurred to me that there was racing at Saratoga and I had time to handicap the card and maybe make a few selections.  I finished handicapping the card as the horses left the paddock and got onto the track for the opener.  I found seven races to play and won with two of them......Darling in the 4th surged to the lead inside the 16th pole and then held off the late charge from Javier Castellano's runner to win and got me back nearly $30. 

Then in the 6th I scored when Weekend Hideaway saved all the ground to the stretch, edged off the rail and wore down the long time leader in a no-conditions allowance race that featured several stakes placed runners. 

Cashed for nearly $30 again.  But much like Sunday, the chance at a 30% plus winning day and a profit slipped away in the last race on my sheet. Eskenformoney had just missed in a Grade 3 at Monmouth  last time out and was in the listed Summer Colony today.  Her last two speed figures were the best two figures of every LIFETIME figure earned by her rivals with one exception and that had been eared on the turf.  I thought that more than offset the fact that I wondered if Todd Pletcher's filly could get the nine furlongs today.  Javier Castellano on board sealed the deal.  She sat in a perfect tracking spot to the turn, then nothing.  Flattened out to run evenly and was beaten by a pole.  Sigh.......