August 19-20

Pacific Classic / Alabama Stakes Weekend

After a winless Friday at the Shore, I had high hopes for Saturday.  And once I had finished handicapping for Saturday it was obvious that the vast majority of the "good" races would be run after 5 pm, so it seemed to make little sense to go out to the races today since I'd be watching those online.  So I spent the day at the computer.  While I had some excellent wins, overall it was a l-o-n-g day of watching for a less than typical winning day of racing.  It didn't help the cause what-so-ever that I went 1-for-5 at Monmouth where I've had pretty good success all summer long, but extended the bad luck on the Shore to one win for thirteen selections dating back to last weekend.  Much like Friday it seemed with the substitute announcer for the weekend, it was "upset weekend."  By the end of today, the twelve selections I'd made at Monmouth produced upset winners - that obviously were not mine.  Four of the winners on Friday in races I bet produced these results:  $49.60, $26.80, $27.40, and $52.80 - so it's not like they were "price" horses that figured to have a chance, no they were "bombs away" kind of upsets.  The same continued on Saturday with three more big bombs of $16.40, $27.20, and $29.40.  You just have to figure that by the end of the month, and the end of the summer it will all event out.  So here's a look at the good things that happened on Saturday.

I got the lone win at Monmouth in the third selection of the day, their third race which was a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint for claimers.  Stress Test was sent out by top trainer Jorge Navarro with current go-to rider Jose Ferrer.  The drop from allowance company to this claiming spot said he should be flying early.  My lone concern was that the best figures on the page for Stress Test were in off-the-turf events.  But he was sent right to the front and coasted home as the 4/5 favorite.  

I missed on the next four races spanning 2 1/2 hours at my desk before we arrived at the 7th at Saratoga.  When I handicapped the Saratoga card I knew that the BET of the Day would come in the Alabama with the return of champion Songbird, the only question there was how much to wager.  But here was my Saratoga "best" other than that one.  Trainer Chad Brown has been really hot all summer with his runners, especially his turf horses and his 2yo maidens.  So when I found Favorable Outcome running in this six furlong MSW sprint for two-year-old fillies she was the bet.  I checked to see what DRF handicapper Mike Beer thought of the race and it proved why you need to always use ALL your resources when handicapping.  One thing I'd noted in the past performances was that the connections had thought highly of Favorable Outcome when she drew a winning $300K bid at the OBS sales.  But Beer noted that it was her sizzling work in :21 flat prior to the sale that earned that big bid.  She obviously is quick and has talent!  At the beginning of the day I was listening to Gabby Gaudet and Andy Serling analyzing the card and when they came to the 7th they spent a lot of time talking about a filly I'd seen in the field that drew a curious glace from me, and that was Seven Forty Seven.  Why?  Well, this filly had been shipped in from her Chicago base at Arlington by trainer Ingrid Mason to run here.  I thought that could be significant because typically runners at Arlington are a cut below those at Saratoga, especially with the highly regarded 2-year-olds that run here each summer.  Secondly, like all horses based in Chicago, Seven Forty Seven had the disadvantage of having been prepared over the Arlington synthetic surface and would run today on the "real dirt" at the Spa.  And finally, even with most older, experienced stakes horses shipping to another track can be an issue to consider - much less with a first-time starting two-year-old filly.  So to me, either this filly was REALLY special or this was a case of the connections THINKING their filly was good enough to try the Saratoga runners.  I've seen many a top flight Calder two-year-old come up here and get their hat handed to them.  Without any sizzling works or connections to "wow" me, that horse was a toss for me.  But Serling and Gaudet talked a lot about her and even remarked that they expected her to go off in the neighborhood of 3/1 or so despite the program price of 20/1.  When the betting opened not only was Seven Forty Seven taking money, but she was getting absolutely hammered as an odds-on favorite.  Was I that wrong?  Typically when debut two-year-olds are being pounded like that it's often a sign that they are the real deal.  Throw into the mix of the story that at this point I'm coming off an 0-for-6 day on Friday and I've cashed one ticket today (1-for-7) with a 4/5 horse.  And now my "prime time/best" bet is floating up at 3/1 or better.  Maybe I am wrong?  I was just either so off or going to be rewarded.  I took a deep breath and thought, you know what?  I'm as good as any handicapper and I not only didn't like that horse, I didn't list her in my top three.  I'm sticking to my guns!  When they broke from the gate Seven Forty Seven was the 7/5 favorite and was sitting pretty with a clear trip three off the rail into the turn while fourth behind dueling pace setters.  Meanwhile my filly, Favorable Outcome has between horses just inside of Seven Forty Seven as they moved through the turn.  We're about to find out I thought.  And just them Favorable Outcome moved with Seven Forty Seven towards the leaders.  But as they straightened for home the favorite just faded while Favorable Outcome set sail for the winner, opening up with every stride...... 

She drew off farther and farther leaving the field in her wake earning this tweet from track announcer Larry Colmus:  

WOW - what a performance!  And the best, THE BEST news was that not only did she go off at a HUGE 7/2 price on the board, but the payoff was nearly 4/1......$9.90 meaning that for my $20 investment I'd be getting back $99!  WHAT A GREAT PICK!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  

Now we are back in the ball game my friends!  Next on my selection sheet was the opener from Del Mar where the Pacific Classic Day card featured three big graded stakes, but I'd found eight races worthy of an investment.  In the opener I liked Glacken Too.  He was listed at 6/1 in the program despite the fact he was dropping in for a $25K tag aver beating second level allowance company two back and wa third at odds of 25/1 in the Grade 3 Santa Anita Sprint last fall.  Either this is a fire sale, or he simply too good for these.  He stalked into the stretch inside, came out, split horses in mid-stretch and edged clear late to win as the mild 8/5 favorite.  

Unfortunately I'd only bet the minimum.  I was a close third in a 3-way photo finish in the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks where I went with the 9/5 Pletcher 2nd choice at post time, beaten the the third choice in the wagering - the "other" Pletcher with Paco Lopez which paid $7.....sigh.  Picked up next win the the third at Del Mar - after having passed the second - when Perfectly Majestic was DEAD LAST on the turn but was perfectly timed to be JUST UP IN TIME in a second level allowance on the turf.  But again, the bet was the minimum.  

Would have helped the bottom line for the day if those had at least been double investments.  The Del Mar race was no longer official when it was time to make a decision on Songbird.  Clearly she was the most likely winner, and clearly going to be a "big bet."  But if you were looking to beat her maybe today was the day......first of all, in her most recent, an authoritative win here in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, she'd gone nine furlongs for the first time, but more importantly she'd been challenged for the first time.  I'd read where jockey Mike Smith remarked about how the humidity had really affected her - so different from So Cal weather; and I'd read that following the race, for the first time ever, she'd been "blowing" hard - obviously she'd had to work.  So coming off of a big effort and now today being asked to go a mile and a quarter, was she vulnerable?  I didn't think so because she'd worked sensationally for this and more importantly she appeared to be the LONE speed.  The only concern was if one of the NY riders said, "I'm not winning, I know this, but I'm going to the lead and you aren't going to win either" forcing Songbird to duel through fast fractions making her vulnerable at today's long, classic distance.  But I didn't see anyone who could do that.  The second choice in the wagering was Dale Romans' filly, Go Maggie Go who'd won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks and the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan (as my pick!).  She figured to be up close, but not on the lead.  But instead she was gunned to the front and Songbird was right there with her to the outside.  I knew Songbird would outrun her in the end, but when the fractions came up - :23.3 and :47.3 - I was concerned.  Those are quick fractions for even a mile and an eighth, but even more so if you are dueling AND going a mile and a quarter - especially for the first time.  A little touch of concern as the riders of the stalkers asked their fillies to make a move on Songbird as they spun into the stretch.......

Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith barely moved as he let the champion out a notch and kissed the field good-bye!  WOW - just how good is this filly?  She went off at what I'd say were fair odds considering the situation and paid $2.40.  

My BET of the Day investment would get me back $120 and I'll take a $20 profit on this champion!  Ben's Cat disappointed in his try to win the Mister Diz for the 7th consecutive time when running evenly at 3/5 despite being back on his favorite course; missed three times at Del Mar and in the finale at Saratoga.  The only good thing about the Spa race was that my pick, Converge, had been my "BET of the Day" last Saturday before the race got washed off.  But in this 2nd level turf allowance had come up tougher I thought and so I backed down on the bet.  Considered re-upping the investment when both Gaudet and Serling sung the praises of Converge, but I stuck with it and she was only third at even money.  I got my final win of the day in the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap when Gary Stevens took Ashleyluvssugar right to the front and opened up nearly a dozen lengths down the backside in a marathon 1 3/8th mile turf race, a la Precious Passion.  As they spun through the turn here they came!  With each stride they late runners were getting two steps in for every one for my pick but at the wire she had just enough to hold on!  WHEW!  

But again, for the third time today in as many wins at Del Mar, it was only a minimum play.  The race of the day was the Grade 1 $1 Million Pacific Classic and I thought that Beholder had an excellent chance to win at a more-than-fair price.  But when Dortmund, a front-runner, did NOT go to the front it let California Chrome loose on the lead.  Still, at a big 3/1 Beholder made her move into the stretch......

But Chrome justified everyone's opinion that he's currently the best older horse in the world as he won for fun without ever being asked.  The day will be remembered by me for the big win with the Chad Brown first timer, Favorable Outcome and the HUGE win by Songbird.  But with Beholder losing, and really not really testing California Chrome this leads to this interesting situation.......last year after winning this race Beholder was ready to face off against the boys in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic against American Pharoah.  Well, it's clear that's not going to be the plan to take on California Chrome again.  So she'd run in the comparable race for fillies & mares, the Grade 1 Distaff - but guess who else is heading that way.....undefeated Songbird.  WOW that would be a race to see!