We're In Houston
ANOTHER BIG DAY Keeps August Start HOT!
We arrived in Houston yesterday morning to be good grandparents. Today I was able to watch all of my races while fulfilling my duties as a watchful grandpa :) And after a slow start it turned out to be another great days as I've started off the month of August as sizzling as the weather! I had handicapped the Friday racing cards from both Monmouth and Saratoga on Wednesday in anticipation of our trip and I made all the bets early this morning not knowing when I'd get a chance to watch the races - live or via replay late at night. In the opener on the Jersey Shore I liked Party Boat in a MSW sprint for 2yo. He was 2nd in his Laurel debut after breaking slowly and his Maryland rider had followed him here today. He pressed the leader into the stretch but had nothing left for the drive, third as the 6/5 favorite. I felt really confident in the 2nd with D'Marin and Paco Lopez. He'd won a one mile event earlier this summer and this looked like a very soft spot. The crowd sent him off as the 7/5 favorite and he looked to be well in hand tracking the 9/1 front runner. But when they turned for home that one had plenty left and wired the field - third. NOT the start I'd imagined. Next up was the third from Saratoga. I'd had Stevie Q last time out when he won an off-the-turf race at Monmouth. Today trainer Chad Brown brought him back on the grass here in upstate New York with Irad Ortiz on board. I liked several angles here - first, the confidence to run at Saratoga after winning at Monmouth; second, going back on the turf where he'd won his maiden and had a near-miss in allowance company; and third, the drop in for a first-time tag today. Stevie Q tracked the pace to the stretch and floated out to make his move entering the stretch. He had all the momentum but kept drifting farther and farther towards the outer rail. Ortiz straightened him out at the furlong pole and he sprinted home a winner!
The nice $6.10 payoff brought be close to even as my racing shifted back to Monmouth. The fourth on the Shore was a one mile turf claiming event. I'd bet on Shea D Girl in her last, the second of two straight turf sprints, but she'd failed to score when third for this same $20K tag. Nik Juarez was riding for trainer Jason Servis - who's tearing it up this summer with 42% wins from 38 starters. When these two have worked together over the last two seasons they are a Monmouth 40% Club play! Shea D Girl was the 9/5 second choice as they left the gate and she sprinted right to the front. Never seriously challenged as she coasted in front all the way around the track.
I cashed for nearly $30 on my second winner of the day and first at Monmouth for the weekend. Less than thirty minutes later it was time for the fifth at Monmouth. Three back Hissy Fit looked inconsistent to me, but since then I've thought she was well spotted. She was the speed of the race, had the rail and had Paco Lopez again. On the first five jumps she was in front, being pressed by a 9/1 runner. Even track announcer Frank Miramahdi called that he had Hissy Fit under a "stranglehold" as they turned for home - and it was a typical Paco ride as he coaxed her to the stretch without ever asking. The other riders were pushing their mounts hard as he looked over his shoulder, shook the reins and let her loose. LONG GONE!
I had tripled the bet and was collecting over $20 on my third win in a row! The 7th was another Servis-Juarez combo and this one, Boss Man showed two previous starts at Monmouth off a layoff, like today, and both were wins. Sent off as the 3/2 favorite he was patiently handled from off the pace behind fast splits. But a stalker got the jump on him and his furious close was too late, second. That closed the day at Monmouth, and I was pleased to see I'd gone 2-for-4 and made a profit on the day. Now I needed the tough Saratoga racing to produce a profit on the day, and I had high hopes with my BET of the Day still to come. That race was up next in the 7th, a conditioned allowance event going a mile and 3/8th on the turf. My pick was sure to be a short-priced favorite - Chad Brown's Money Multiplier. I listened to the NY analysts all talk about what great price alternatives there were in the field, but sometimes you have to just KNOW when the favorite is not vulnerable. This is one of them. Money Multiplier had earned back-to-back triple digit Beyer speed figures in his last two starts (100-103). AND both of those came in Grade 1 stakes races. Clearly the fastest and classiest here. But when you went through the rest of the field and added it up, they had ZERO triple digit Beyers from a combined 134 career starts. My main concern was that in both of his previous wins Money Multiplier had scored in a photo finish. Javier Castellano had him perfectly placed, saving ground to the far turn. He angled off the rail three-wide with a sweeping move and burst to the front. As they straightened for home he dove back towards the rail and to be fair, he did cause a horse to take up slightly. But that one was a 30/1 outsider who's rider knew he didn't have a chance and was distanced through the run to the wire. An obvious "no-call" - but immediately the INQUIRY and OBJECTION signs went up. Seriously? No change!
I had put $30 to win on Money Multiplier and would be collecting over $50 in return. A quick calculation of the more than $20 profit ON THIS RACE, the previous win earlier at Saratoga and knowing I had two $10 plays left let me realize that regardless of the outcome of the final two races I would profit here at Spa! The eighth was a second level allowance sprint that would provide the acid test for Tom Proctor's Casual Cocktail. He had been a best-of-the-rest second when she debuted at Keeneland in October.....of 2014! Off the shelf she'd won for fun by SEVENTEEN lengths in her Delaware comeback and then drew off by more than eleven in her first level allowance at Penn National. Today she was facing the "big girls" and we'd see what she was made of. Well, she didn't win, but was a courageous 2nd at 4/5 after tracking a sizzling :21.3 and :44.3 pace, forging to the front, but unable to hold off the late running second choice. The final selection of the day was in the featured Grade 2 Hall of Fame on the turf for three-year-olds. Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Camelot Kitten was already a two-time graded stakes winner, giving him the class edge. But my concern, very similar to Money Multiplier, was his penchant for finding JUST enough to win:
So after seeing my BET of the Day explode to an easy win I was hopeful of the same kind of decisive move and win today. As they came through the turn jockey Irad Ortiz made his move and Camelot Kitten cruised to the front to poke a nose in front. But - and you could only say this if you were a veteran watcher of races - you could tell that he enjoyed the competition. It truly looked like he was thriving through the head-bobbing stretch duel, always with an eye on just where the wire was. He was only running as fast as he needed and as they closed in on the wire he inched forward without any problem to win yet another photo finish!
My double investment led to a payoff of nearly $30 and brought my totals for the day to:
A second excellent day in a row to kick off my birthday month! Tomorrow is Whitney Day and I have selections from Monmouth, Saratoga, and Mountaineer (where it's West Virginia Derby Day); along with a couple of single plays from Gulfstream and Ellis Park.
The nice $6.10 payoff brought be close to even as my racing shifted back to Monmouth. The fourth on the Shore was a one mile turf claiming event. I'd bet on Shea D Girl in her last, the second of two straight turf sprints, but she'd failed to score when third for this same $20K tag. Nik Juarez was riding for trainer Jason Servis - who's tearing it up this summer with 42% wins from 38 starters. When these two have worked together over the last two seasons they are a Monmouth 40% Club play! Shea D Girl was the 9/5 second choice as they left the gate and she sprinted right to the front. Never seriously challenged as she coasted in front all the way around the track.
I cashed for nearly $30 on my second winner of the day and first at Monmouth for the weekend. Less than thirty minutes later it was time for the fifth at Monmouth. Three back Hissy Fit looked inconsistent to me, but since then I've thought she was well spotted. She was the speed of the race, had the rail and had Paco Lopez again. On the first five jumps she was in front, being pressed by a 9/1 runner. Even track announcer Frank Miramahdi called that he had Hissy Fit under a "stranglehold" as they turned for home - and it was a typical Paco ride as he coaxed her to the stretch without ever asking. The other riders were pushing their mounts hard as he looked over his shoulder, shook the reins and let her loose. LONG GONE!
I had tripled the bet and was collecting over $20 on my third win in a row! The 7th was another Servis-Juarez combo and this one, Boss Man showed two previous starts at Monmouth off a layoff, like today, and both were wins. Sent off as the 3/2 favorite he was patiently handled from off the pace behind fast splits. But a stalker got the jump on him and his furious close was too late, second. That closed the day at Monmouth, and I was pleased to see I'd gone 2-for-4 and made a profit on the day. Now I needed the tough Saratoga racing to produce a profit on the day, and I had high hopes with my BET of the Day still to come. That race was up next in the 7th, a conditioned allowance event going a mile and 3/8th on the turf. My pick was sure to be a short-priced favorite - Chad Brown's Money Multiplier. I listened to the NY analysts all talk about what great price alternatives there were in the field, but sometimes you have to just KNOW when the favorite is not vulnerable. This is one of them. Money Multiplier had earned back-to-back triple digit Beyer speed figures in his last two starts (100-103). AND both of those came in Grade 1 stakes races. Clearly the fastest and classiest here. But when you went through the rest of the field and added it up, they had ZERO triple digit Beyers from a combined 134 career starts. My main concern was that in both of his previous wins Money Multiplier had scored in a photo finish. Javier Castellano had him perfectly placed, saving ground to the far turn. He angled off the rail three-wide with a sweeping move and burst to the front. As they straightened for home he dove back towards the rail and to be fair, he did cause a horse to take up slightly. But that one was a 30/1 outsider who's rider knew he didn't have a chance and was distanced through the run to the wire. An obvious "no-call" - but immediately the INQUIRY and OBJECTION signs went up. Seriously? No change!
I had put $30 to win on Money Multiplier and would be collecting over $50 in return. A quick calculation of the more than $20 profit ON THIS RACE, the previous win earlier at Saratoga and knowing I had two $10 plays left let me realize that regardless of the outcome of the final two races I would profit here at Spa! The eighth was a second level allowance sprint that would provide the acid test for Tom Proctor's Casual Cocktail. He had been a best-of-the-rest second when she debuted at Keeneland in October.....of 2014! Off the shelf she'd won for fun by SEVENTEEN lengths in her Delaware comeback and then drew off by more than eleven in her first level allowance at Penn National. Today she was facing the "big girls" and we'd see what she was made of. Well, she didn't win, but was a courageous 2nd at 4/5 after tracking a sizzling :21.3 and :44.3 pace, forging to the front, but unable to hold off the late running second choice. The final selection of the day was in the featured Grade 2 Hall of Fame on the turf for three-year-olds. Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Camelot Kitten was already a two-time graded stakes winner, giving him the class edge. But my concern, very similar to Money Multiplier, was his penchant for finding JUST enough to win:
So after seeing my BET of the Day explode to an easy win I was hopeful of the same kind of decisive move and win today. As they came through the turn jockey Irad Ortiz made his move and Camelot Kitten cruised to the front to poke a nose in front. But - and you could only say this if you were a veteran watcher of races - you could tell that he enjoyed the competition. It truly looked like he was thriving through the head-bobbing stretch duel, always with an eye on just where the wire was. He was only running as fast as he needed and as they closed in on the wire he inched forward without any problem to win yet another photo finish!
My double investment led to a payoff of nearly $30 and brought my totals for the day to:
9 selections / FIVE WINS - 55% - Bet: -$115 / Collect +$146.25
A second excellent day in a row to kick off my birthday month! Tomorrow is Whitney Day and I have selections from Monmouth, Saratoga, and Mountaineer (where it's West Virginia Derby Day); along with a couple of single plays from Gulfstream and Ellis Park.
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