August 18

Special Thursday Racing From The Spa!

I don't really have a reason other than I wanted to, and since I'm retired I pretty much do what ever I want to do!  But at any rate, today I decided to add an additional day of racing to my week by handicapping the Thursday Saratoga card.  And after looking through the local newspaper I discovered another play at Gulfstream, and a "prime time" investment at that!  As I went through the races at Saratoga I found five of the ten to have runners I felt I had an advantage with.  In the second I thought Shadow Rider was worth the minimum play as he was the lone runner who'd never raced in conditioned company and this was a non-winners or three lifetime sprint.  Sent off as the 8/5 favorite he was near the back at the start, through the turn, and down the stretch.  In the third it was a MSW for older and I commented that were it not for the fact that Breaking Bread was coming off of a layoff from last October, she'd be the BET of the Day.  In that October debut she'd run second behind Carnina Mia who exited that race to win a Grade 2 event, then won the Grade 3 Eight Belles in dominant fashion; and off of that had run away from the Kentucky Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia to win the Grade 1 Acorn - all as my top choice I might add :)  So that was high praise for the quality of Breaking Bread.  She stalked a sizzling :44 and change pace into the stretch, engaged the winner to the 16th pole and drew clear late.  

She went off as the 7/5 favorite, but I'd doubled the play so I cashed for nearly $25.  In the sixth it was a MSW for two-year-olds and I liked the program favorite from the Todd Pletcher barn, #3 Ethan Hunt.  He'd was second in his debut and came back in a STAKES race to be a best-of-the-rest second.  The obvious play under Javier Castellano.  But when I began watching the live feed, the #8 was the heavy 4/5 favorite from the Chad Brown barn.  I gave brief consideration to switching as Ethan Hunt was all the way up to 7/2 odds.  Somebody gave this Brown filly a HUGE chance!  I decided to stick with the play and the favorite DOMINATED the race.  Ethan Hunt was clearly the best of the rest of the juveniles, but there was no denying the filly that won, Mirai may be something special.  Right back in the 7th where this entry level allowance was a rescheduled running of an event that was cancelled on Saturday at Saratoga when the weather wiped out the second half of the program.  I had liked Malibu Stacy then, and I was a fan today.  Malibu Stacy had won her maiden two back, and was entered in the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes in her most recent.  She came from off the pace and just missed when second behind the 4/5 favorite, unbeaten Coppa who'd flown in from Southern California to win that event on the Belmont undercard.  The only issue was that as an off-the-pace runner Malibu Stacy could be subject to the pace flow which did NOT look to have a lot of speed signed on.  But with the probable early speed coming from a last-out maiden winner (a Pletcher filly who'd broken her maiden at Monmouth, telling me she was a notch below "Saratoga quality") I thought she'd be fine.  Malibu Stacy sat a little closer to the lead than I anticipated, swung out four wide into the stretch to wear down the leaders and edged clear through the final furlong.  

She represented my "best" of the day as I tripled the bet and received nearly $40 for the play.  Moments after this race it was time for the 8th at Gulfstream.  What had actually caught my eye in the paper was that in the finale, a $10K maiden claiming event, there was a horse LISTED as the 3/5 favorite.  Any horse listed at THAT short of a price in the program is a near certain winner, but in a maiden claiming event for a meager $10K?  I needed to check out Ron Nicoletti's analysis.  I also had noted that in the 8th race there was a horse listed at 6/5, which is also a next-to-never situation.  Nicoletti listed both on top, but his remarks about the finale sounded less than enthusiastic while his top pick of Lirica in the 8th race were glowing.  So much so she was his "BEST BET."  I signed on at the beginning of the day and made a bet.  When I flipped video feeds Lirica was 1/9 in the betting and Nicoletti was raving about how she'd been second last time out to a stakes winner who'd come back since to win a second stakes.  I decided to up the bet and added another $15 to the bet to make her the "BEST of the Day."  On the turn she was in a stalking position and looked to be struggling to get going, but as they spun out of the turn she began to gather momentum and as she straightened at the furlong pole she was in full flight to the wire and won going away!  

Cashed for another $35 as her odds floated up to 2/5 at post time!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  The last investment of the day came on Mosler in an allowance/no conditions turf sprint.  He was 4/5 and while you could make the excuse that as he was rallying he was crowded for quite some time through the stretch I don't think he'd ever have won the race.  But, for the day I was an outstanding 3-for-6 and made a solid profit of more than $20 :)